Moderna Continues to Slide Despite News

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All that was already priced in. Now with other companies coming out with Covid vaccines, Modernas probably lost any boost it had from its vaccine development. If you really believe that Moderna should be worth more due to their infrastructure, then continue to hold this is just a minor fluctuation


Their trial was conducted before the new variants evolved, so people are (a) discounting the better efficacy results, (b) realize J&J’s must cost less to manufacture, store and distribute and maybe (c) expecting that Covax will likely order from J&J because the 1 dose regiment is way, way better for people who are economically disadvantaged.


I’d wait for it to settle to about $80 before jumping back in. Vaccine competition will only increase. I think moderna has two potential areas to boost back up: 1) show that they can produce vaccines for new variants extremely quickly. Running trials and getting FDA approval is harder though, and we saw the market waiting for that approval on their first vaccine. 2) advance their ability to fundamentally change cancer treatment. This is maybe 3-5 years away. Until then I expect it to slide below $100/share again. Maybe lower.


I bought in April. I held at 99% green for the sake of waiting for the nice round 100. Now it’s down to 30% profit. I ain’t selling. I’m leaving moderna stock in my will.


The “competitive advantage” you mentioned seems to have shifted to JNJ, not only because of the existence of its one-dose regimen, but because that efficacy is a “floor” of what we can expect from JNJ’s two-dose regimen, for which phase 3 trials are underway. Think of it this way: JNJ proved that its one-dose vaccine is “good enough” by a pretty decent margin. If the two-dose regimen is even more successful and approaches or exceeds Pfitzer/Moderna’s efficacy under the same variant conditions, everyone would switch to JNJ and ditch the others (it’s cheaper, easier to store and transport). So at a minimum, JNJ has a successful competitor that will draw significant market share away. Best-case scenario (for JNJ), in the coming months, it can provide an even more effective two-dose regimen which has been proven to still be highly effective if the second dose isn’t taken (which is possible/even probable in many communities).