Assessment of the Uranium Market and Future Outlook (long post)

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>How it starts: Pages of DD on reddit >How it ends: Redditor takes physical delivery of $500,000 in physical commodity X On the bright side, OP can make uranium yellow/green glass/ceramic works that glow in the dark even if the worse case comes to fruition.

zxc123zxc123

Very good DD. I agree. I bought heavy into uranium from 2011 until 2020. Big loss. I sold all after Democrats 2020 sweep figuring there was NO appetite for nuclear expansion over next 4 years. I still think this is true, but I also agree that long-term, you are correct and when wind and solar cannot keep up with demand, nuclear will be inevitable. Unless of course we move to fusion, China just sustained 100 second fusion reaction last week. And of course over 100 years of natural gas. I sometimes regret selling, but needed the tax loss harvesting for 2020, so all is good.

SaltyFly27

Just look up the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for nuclear compared to gas/solar/wind and you’ll understand why nuclear is never going to make a return in the near future. It’s going to need a much higher level of subsidies than it is already receiving to be able to compete.

Chagrinnish

UUUU has been good for me. Up 11% since I bought.

DatelessGuy

Generally this is about right. I think the short term play is pretty much in the bag barring another disaster (though knowing when to sell will be a big problem when the really big moves come.) Utilities move really slowly and there’s zero chance we will massively change our makeup in any direction in 3 or 5 year’s time. The bigger question one would have to answer sometime down the road is that is the Nuclear play a short term one or a long term one, that story is yet to be written, but there are pretty strong reasons to believe the potential for a second great Nuclear roll out is on the horizon (say the 2030s to 40s) with the advancement of SMR and 4th generation etc… For Uranium mining in general though, the problematic part is that getting a new mine up is really REALLY hard, there’s only like 20 ish mines that’s either up or under care and maintenance world wide, there’s a lot of these mining stock out there who will never end up with a real project built. Investing in miners is always tricky but U miner is another level. Though on the bright side the relative few numbers means that doing more thorough DD is a lot easier. It is also a serious concern that by the 2030s and beyond we might have some serious long term deficit that can’t be resolved as it is unclear how much untapped Uranium is still out there (and more importantly, how fast can they actually be brought on, the average time between finding a new Uranium deposited to a mine actually start producing in Canada in recent years is over 20 years!!). Though there is one potential trick in the bag that a lot of academic institution have played around with over the years, which is to extract Uranium from sea water, but that’s obviously going to be way more expensive and a longer term thing. ( and recycling, but clearly if nuclear is expanding there’s no way recycle can fill all the gap.)

YuHsingChen