Humans sometimes use heuristics to balance out disproportional causes and effects. If the effects are large, but the cause seems small, we ascribe more value to the cause by creating a conspiracy.

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I started to react to conspiracy theories for the last years by quoting Hanlon’s Razor, which is my main-semi-Occams Razor-substitute: Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity. Which also means, we as humanity are just a highly irrational species which just survives by sheer luck and outnumbering deaths with childbirths


Mental health is a more important factor to whether people attach themselves to conspiracies or not. When it comes to healthy people occasionally having a paranoid thought or two, then yes, I agree with the premise. However, conspiracy nuts have a far more intimate relationship with their chosen flavor of conspiracy theories. They need them to be true. The conspiracies are a container that they shove their own unhappiness into. They structure their lives around that container, and thus seemingly isolate themselves from the unhappiness within. It’s a rug they push their problems under and they desperately work to convince themselves it’s working. They try to convince others as well, since having alibis and allies makes their internal story more believable. It’s a mental health crisis and it’s why logic and reason will not help. Ultimately people who excessively try to dissuade conspiracy theorists have their own, not so pure, reasons for doing so. Mental care is the solution, not proving them wrong.


Isn’t there some way to test this notion? Because honestly it just sound like psychobabble pseudoscience. This whole notion originally came from the JFK assassination. Its a way of dismissing the notion that their could have been a coup by saying that people that think there was are just simpletons that can’t believe a lone gunman could cause so much change. Of course its believable that a lone nut did it. Of course it also believable that it was an orchestrated coup involving elements of deception and secrecy. The thing is that isn’t why most people who end up believing in the JFK coup do so. The real reason people end up believing in the JFK conspiracy is they look at the facts surrounding the case and end up finding the official story *unbelievable.*. Which is what all this “conspiracy” bashing boils down to – if you question official narratives you are de facto crazy, and you can be dismissed a priori without even listening to any of your arguments. Oh, how convenient for those that disseminate the official narrative. The whole thing is really just an avoidance of engaging in actual rational inquiry. Neat.


Or perhaps the true power and nature of the cause was just successfully hidden?


And sometimes there are conspiracies to do illegal, quasi-legal or induce others to believe and act in ways that have large scale consequences. Operation Northwoods. CIA, Defense, Bush-Cheney deliberately allowing the US to be attacked on 9/11.