Anyone Bullish for the next year or two? What’s your thesis?

Read the Story

Show Top Comments

World War I, Great Depression, World War II, Hyperinflation, Stagflation, the crash of 1987, the dot com bubble, 9/11, the GFC, Covid. Yet, the market continued to march higher. Unless you’re close to retirement or need your money now, stay invested. You’re making the same mistake most new investors do in thinking you can outsmart the market and find a way to predict where it will go. You can’t.


I started in 2012, I am not bearish or bullish or read a lot because over the years I stopped carrying and just do same weekly DCA in same funds I been doing since 2012 I am in asset accumulation because I am 37, probably 2 more decades still I start using that money , the real risk for me is not investing and not having enough assets to live on while inflation will eat my purchasing power All I know that world economy will continue moving forward in one way or another , I don’t have a clue who will be winners and losers but I want to be owner of financial assets in 20 years so VTI and VXUS it is and I hope for flat market for some time because adding every time at ATH is not good for buyers but I sure as hell don’t wish for crash because it causes a lot of real misery in real life to a lot of people


Just sat through an hour and a half presentation by Jeff Schaffer from clearbridge yesterday on the state of the market, statistically the market isn’t looking overly frothy right now and I could see a another few years of good returns. Most institutional investors seem to prefer international over US stocks right now though


My thesis is all the doom and gloom proves the bull is still climbing the “wall of worry” and it will keep doing so until we get to the “stock market always go up it has changed forever” groupthink which inevitably comes at the end of bull markets. At that point even wiser people will be buying investments that have little fundamentals and the market will end up with an oversupply of stock. I actually think we have about 2.5 years or so to go; it feels very 1997 to me. Between now and then we can easily see corrections too.


The biggest bull argument in my opinion is ‘don’t bet against the federal reserve’. They are going to clearly pump the economy some more as J Powell said today, ‘we are still a ways off’, from any change to policy. Whatever the hell that means.