Is it reasonable to expect S&P 500 ETF return rates to continue averaging ~10.5% in the future?

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Burry has predicted 10 of the last two recessions since then.


Reasonable. Sure. Guaranteed, not at all. Nobody knows.


Michael Burry has predicted a crash every week since he got lucky that one time. Wouldn’t put much thought into anything he says. He’s the boomer equivalent of a you tube influencer. Doesn’t mean it won’t happen, but it certainly hasn’t happened the last 1000 times he predicted. But no, it would not be reasonable to expect S&P to return 10.5% a year.


Nominal? Absolutely. Real? Probably closer to 7.


Averaging? Yes, but that could still include a -30% crash year or something to that effect.