Goldman Sachs sees 35% chance of recession in 2 years

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I would put it much higher. Probably in the 80% range. The question should be, what factors do we think are in place to PREVENT a recession, rather than what would cause a recession. The cost of living crisis, inflation, the global trade headwinds, energy costs etc. The restrictions on consumer spending, but also the restrictions on government spending. Very hard to see how this will not lead to a recession. Given that all measurements are essentially lagging indicators, it could be that this has already started. I would also add: IF we agree that current inflation measurements are materially misstating actual inflation, then it may be that the recession has already started and we are simply measuring incorrectly. I think this is the case.

marco-sharko

Goldman Sachs and other big players control capital market prices. They literally decide when there’s a recession or not, in so far as the fluctuations of capital market prices cause economic recessions.

Holos620

Optimists, I see. filler text filler text filler text filler text filler text filler text filler text filler text filler text filler text filler text filler text filler text filler text filler text filler text filler text filler text filler text filler text filler text filler text filler text filler text filler text filler text filler text filler text filler text filler text filler text filler text filler text filler text filler text filler text filler text filler text filler text filler text filler text filler text filler text filler text filler text

AnalShockTrooper

More like a 99% chance of recession by this summer. 2 years is ridiculous. We’ll be in fema camps two years from now if things don’t drastically change.

jimbuhlim