Stop freaking out about “the recession” (8/15/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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I sold all my stocks so that I have more money to buy stocks when the recession hits. That was in 2015. I only need the stock market to drop by ~33% so I can buy in exactly where I was four years ago. I know that if I hold out I won't lose money in the long run. Right?


I mean, fear for a jobloss. That's a pretty big one to be fearful of.


It’s always very clear that 95 percent of reddit was in high school (or younger) during 2008. Any stock market pullback of more than 3 percent or doom porn indicator (yield curve, GDP, etc.) being talked about by the media sends people here into a total and complete panic. It makes me wonder what people here will actually do in a real recession. There’s going to be a lot of dumb buying high and selling low. It seems reddit only supports “don’t time the market” until their portfolio is down 3 percent. The hysteria is unreal.


My only question is about real estate. Should I nor be buying in this market?


There are examples of bubbles in our economy today that make a recession more disturbing. ~~40% of American's don't have savings~~, we have a sub-prime vehicle bubble, we have a student loan bubble, we have a corporate debt bubble due to debatable interest rate management by the fed. Our fiscal and monetary policy tools are weaker than they were in the 80's. We have 20 trillion dollars in debt due to tax cuts and increased spending. How many bailouts can we do this time around? Fed was so conservative on raising interest rates that lowering them from an already low amount will not generate the easing that occurred in 2008. I make zero claims to confidently know what's going to happen. Maybe we don't go into a recession anytime soon. But we have enough data to know that these recessions when they do occur, are going to be more painful as our economic foundation, tools and safety nets wither away.


ALWAYS save your position’s job posting and offer letter to negotiate a raise in the future! (8/16/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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Wishing you a big fat raise!


If you think hanging on to that offer letter is going to get you a raise... well, just try it and see how that works. Maybe you'll get lucky? The most consistent way to get a raise is to literally leave a company every few years while continually searching for a better paying job.


> This post is brought to you by someone who obsessively deletes emails and now trying negotiating a raise. Never delete. Just archive. Disk space is cheap - be it a local drive or cloud storage! Gmail is king of archiving and easy to use, but almost all other email clients/systems have archiving, and if not - you can often set up a gmail account to access another email account and archive the mail for you. Same thing with photos, documents, etc. You can still keep an obsessively clean inbox but the old emails are still around and searchable.


That's a good idea. Started a new job lately and just sort of started a spreadsheet of major projects I'm leading or involved in and perhaps more importantly ones that are not necessarily in my job description. The idea is to gather ammo for when that yearly review comes up.


This isn't great advice and not likely to work unless you are truly someone who is working a different job than the one that they were hired and are being paid for. Otherwise, everybody does things that aren't explicitly listed on their job posting/offer letter. Everybody. Going in and saying that you deserve a raise for doing the same thing everyone else does - i.e. occasionally help out beyond your actual realm of responsibility - is going to be a negative for you, not a positive. Again, it could help if you were hired for a completely different job - i.e. you were hired as an electrical journeyman and now are a true electrician. But otherwise, most managers are probably going to be more irritated than anything else if you come to them and say "my job posting did not say I had to work with the development team occasionally to implement my work so I want more money" or whatever the version of that statement is at your job.


Ordered something online, UPS delivered to wrong address, package was refused, company wont refund me even though it wasn’t my fault and it’s being returned within their time frame of allowing returns. Can I refute the charge on my card? (8/13/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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If you used a credit card, dispute the charge. A debit card, tell the bank what happened.


I have disputed the charge. Thanks guys!


If they have trouble delivering the item to you, then you can also have trouble delivering the payment to them.


Just some notes about UPS (and likely all other delivery companies): UPS provides a service to the shipper, not the receiver. While there are times that UPS will adjust things for the receiver, the shipper is the actual customer. UPS is only liable to make refunds or pay insurance claims to the shipper. If it was a high value package, UPS requires the package to go to the address on the label. This is likely for insurance purposes. Employees are not allowed to change an address or deliver to an address, that is not the same as the label states on a high value.


What happened to you is what I like to call the Donkey Exchange. A lot like that scene in sheep where everyone is yelling at everyone, they’re trying to muddy the waters. The company is saying that they didn’t mess anything up and that the shipping company did, so you’d have to deal with the shipping company. That’s bullshit. The shipping company has a responsibility to deliver the package correctly, but that responsibility is to the Chinese company, not to you. The Chinese company has a responsibility to you. The Chinese company here is ultimately responsible for making things right with you, and then UPS is responsible for making things right with them. Dispute the charge.


Beware Other Ally Bank Users (8/11/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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Easy test to see if it's your actual bank. Tell the person you'll hang up and call the 1-800 number. A real call center employee will say okay no problem everytime. Never will they want you to stay on the line if you're uncomfortable, bank policy is strict on that point. Source: worked for a big bank


Never give out personal info on an inbound call. Caller ID can be spoofed too easily. If a vendor/bank calls you and asks for personal info you tell them you'll call them right back. Do NOT use the phone number they give you. Instead, use a known-good number, such as the one on the back of the card, or off of their website.


I am constantly surprised at how many people answer phone calls in general


This is really a warning for ANY bank customer. Don't give out any information on an inbound phone call. Call your bank back at the number printed on the back of your card, statement, or on their website.


Send them an email about everything.


Parents want me to take out a loan/mortgage in my name towards new house. Please advise. (8/12/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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OP has requested that this thread be locked. Thanks to all who contributed!


Your parents taking out a mortgage in your name isn’t a thing. YOU would be taking out a mortgage for YOUR house. They can say that they will make the monthly payments, but if for any reason they couldn’t anymore, you would be the one on the hook for payments. Even if they “make the down payment” they would be gifting you the money, and you would be putting it towards your new house. Essentially, do you want to buy a house and let your parents pay you rent (equivalent to the mortgage payment) to live in it? The answer is probably no.


You'll be tied to that mortgage for 30 years. It'll be almost impossible for you to buy your own home till they refinance your name off the loan. If they stop paying then your credit will also have a foreclosure on it. Not sure why so many parents feel the need to burden their kids with their poor habits.


Nooooooooooooooooo. NO. There are many ways this could blow up in your face, but foremost: The professionals believe loaning money to your parents is a bad idea because it won't get repaid. Do you really want to willingly sign up for that debt when they can't make the payments? The tactful way you word this to your parents is that the mortgage will handcuff your future. With this debt, you will be unable to get a mortgage for your own house and will be unable to one day start a family. Even if this isn't something that you expect in the near future, remember that this is a financial burden you will have to carry for 30 years. Things change.


No this is not a thing you should do


I am torn between renting an apartment and buying a house. In my area, renting is significantly higher than a mortage. Any tips, advice, etc. would be greatly appreciated. (8/14/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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At the end of the day, buying vs renting is as much a personal decision as it is a financial one. The no credit thing will impact your decision. I would recommend getting a credit card, using it for regular expenses (gas) and paying it off in full every month. You need to start building some sort of credit record. Renovation / custom improvement of your living space has always been my #1 selling point in purchasing vs. renting. To me, there's nothing better than being able to paint the walls my own color, build pull out cabinets to hide trash cans, install custom drawer organizers specific to what I want to put in that room, and my latest kick - smart home features. Living in a rented place is very very much living in someone else's house and definitely feels that way. That said - you make a good point about the neighbors/neighborhood and being able to leave if you don't like them. I love my house, I love my neighborhood, I love everything about my current situation... except the people next door. I don't hate them I just wish things were different. I have said many times I would love to move because of them. If we were renting, I'd have left years ago. Ultimately, no one here can give you the right answer for you.


In case of buying, please remember the additional costs I call BIRTH: B - Brokerage I - Insurance R - Repairs T - Taxes H - HOA (not always)


I purchased a home when I turned 21 (25 now). I was in the same exact situation you’re in now. I lived at home and I had never lived alone before. I live in the Midwest, and the market 4 years ago was very good for buyers. I had a 775 credit score by the time I was buying, so I got very good rates, but my purchasing power wasn’t significant. I was approved for only $115,000 (even though budget wise, I could afford $140,000 - $155,000). My realtor and I came across a foreclosed auction house. It was a 3 bed, 1 bath, 1100 (finished), 400 (unfinished) sqft house in a desirable school district. It needed paint and carpet immediately, but that was about it. Auction start price was 90,000, I bid my approved max. I was fighting against flippers, none of them were going to live in the house, so I went all in. Closed in October 2015. Been there nearly four years now and my journey thus far has been... /okay/. I have ZERO experience in home renovations, painting, and owning a home. There is A LOT of unforeseen expenses. Upon moving in, I immediately replaced the kitchen floors and appliances and repainted every wall, this was very minor and easy. After the immediate fixes, I saved for furniture. I only had bedroom furniture because I previously lived with my folks. Took me nearly 2 years to fully furnish the office, guest room, living room, and dining room. Mainly because things kept piling up. In fall of 2016 one of my backyard trees blew over and destroyed my fence. I didn’t file an insurance claim. I went on YouTube, bought a chainsaw, fixed the fence myself and broke down the tree. Took a weekend to finish myself. 8 months later my last giant tree fell over and landed on my neighbors roof and my roof. My insurance paid for a new roof ($1000 deductible), her insurance covered hers instead of mine (I wasn’t liable because the home inspection showed the tree was in great condition in 2015). Stuff like this happens all the time, and owning a home is honestly about rolling with the punches. If you can’t handle it, or don’t want to deal with it, you won’t succeed. In four years I’ve had these emergencies: 2 fallen trees, one smashed roof (insurance, $1000), part of my deck destroyed and rebuilt ($2000) furnace unexpectedly stopped working ($1700), kitchen/3 bedrooms/bathroom/entry floors replaced ($2600), bathroom subfloor and tub leaked water; had to replace subfloor and drywall ($500), snowblower/mower replaced fixed ($500), just bought new floors to finish the rest of the house ($3000), and now my AC unit needs replaced ($3300). There’s also landscaping improvements, decorating, re-finishing decks, lawn maintenance, etc. It’s a lot of freakin work. But YouTube has been my savior for quite a bit of it. And for the record, I don’t work a manual labor job. I’m an office worker, I’m not fit by any means (5”11, 245 pounds). Doing this work has pushed my physical boundaries A LOT, but the house is my pride and joy and it keeps me motivated. It really, really comes down to what you want to do. If low-effort living is your thing, rent. If telling your buddies you can’t go to the bar tonight because you have to mow, fix your front door catching on the frame, and lay down fertilizer is your thing, buy a home. Edit: there’s also A LOT of things no one preps you for. I didn’t know I needed to refill my water softener every so often, or clean my radiator on my AC unit once a month. How to maintain my driveway when it needs to be re-caulked. How to pour concrete in a mailbox post to stop it from falling over, how to lay a slab of concrete at the base of your deck steps to stop it from sinking. How to lay down landscaping fabric with rock pavers. How to file my taxes with assets. How to change my thermostat to a newer model. When to call someone to add attic insulation. There’s a lot of learning experiences, and lot of them happen AFTER something bad happens, because that’s how you learn. Edit 2: Sorry, I’m trying to be as transparent as possible to help you with your decision. My loan was a 3% Conventional NIFA. Basically it assists with the down payment of a home while still acting as a HBA loan. There’s rules and regulations for NIFA loans. Such as: no roommates, must make between X and Y amount a year, must be an HBA loan, and it’s mostly through local credit unions or specific national branches. My mortgage is $938.76 a month, I still have my PMI, and my total cost with Utilities, Internet, Trash Services comes out to $1138 in the Midwest. In saving the down payment aspect of the buying process, I was able to upgrade the kitchen appliances and start the new flooring process. I’ve been slowly contracting work out that I cannot do myself for my unfinished basement. When I’m finished, I’ll re-evaluate my homes worth, refinance my mortgage, and drop the PMI entirely. Bought for $115,000 and after everything’s said and done I’ll be sitting around $150-160k market value in current standings.


If you've never lived alone and currently live with your folks, I highly recommend renting your own place for a year before buying a house. A house is a lot of commitment, and if you've never lived on your own, you may not have a good idea of what you do and do not want in a house. Renting for a year would also give you a chance to establish some credit (I went from no credit to a 750 score in a year with a secure credit card with a monthly netflix charge on it) and build a slightly bigger down payment.


Maintenance on a house would average out to more per month than you’re budgeting


Waiting for baby boomers to die is not effective housing policy (8/11/2019) ~ Economics

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If only their was some way to increase the supply of housing to lower the cost and make it a less good investment lowering speculation...


Chinese billionaires just buy up the properties and rent em out to GenXers and millennials. American Capitalism at its finest.


Waiting for their kids who are buried in CC debt to default on the property taxes and surrender the house as collateral is a surer bet.


There seems to be this huge market for medium priced homes, but nobody is building them. Is it just that they don't think anybody will buy them? Or they won't be good enough? Or what?


From everything I've seen from the Boomers, I expect them to somehow figure out how to keep re-animating their own corpses after death, keep their jobs, houses.


‘Trump is ruining our markets’: Struggling farmers are losing a huge customer to the trade war — China (8/12/2019) ~ Economics

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Farmers, who have survived for generations on government subsidies, are now complaining that they aren't getting enough subsidies.


You have to admire farmers who are willing to bankrupt themselves and their families to protect the intellectual property of Silicone Valley from the Chinese. Not many Americans are so self sacrificing.


the best part is that big cities and tech are prospering, while farmers, manufacturing, and coal are all dying. unless you're big agri-business, big manufacturers who are able to automate and offshore, and energy investors who also play in renewables. maga swamp


The farmers are a little slow on the uptake on this issue.


What effect is the trade war having on China? All I hear about are farmers in the US. What's happening on the other end?


U.S. Farmers Stung by Tariffs Now Face a $3.5 Billion Corn Loss (8/13/2019) ~ Economics

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They are also getting billions in government aid. And since 66% of farm output comes from 4% of farms so here we go again with socialism for the rich.


It is not just going to be corn. And this was a wet summer (at least in Montana) so this could have been even worse. But its fucking amateur hour when it comes to fiscal policy with this WH so its not a bright future for rural america.


Does this mean corn will be extremely cheap in the US? Also, should this have an impact in gas prices considering ethanol is 10 of the fuel in our cars?


it's still 20c higher per bushel than it was last year at the same time.


Could someone explain to me how tariffs on solar panels, washing machines, steel, aluminum, and a bunch of other random Chinese goods are causing corn losses? I keep seeing articles pointing out the correlation, but I don't understand how one affects the other.


Dow plunges 600 points after bond market flashes a recession warning, Citigroup tanks 5% (8/14/2019) ~ Investing

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Rip mah gains again


Another Dec 2018 meltdown coming?


|Time to stock up on canned water and downloaded porn. I am investing in dehydrated water futures. Super compact storage, and extremely easy to rehydrate just by adding water. As far as the porn angle. That is easily covered with a 24pin Dot Matrix printer and a box of continuous-feed paper. When The Interwebs collapses shortly after the beginning of *The Recession*, only those smart people like me and others with their Hayes 9600b external modems will be doing any sort of ASCII Porn downloading and printing. Suckers.


> President just authorized a drone strike on ... Fuck there's going to be a war with... > the Fed. Oh.


Time to buy the dip


Hong Kong protesters are calling for massive ATM withdrawals in an economic warning to China (8/16/2019) ~ Economics

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I’m just curious what happens to an economy when everyone attempts to withdraw all of their money from bank accounts as currency. Obviously there isn’t that much physical currency in circulation to accommodate it. So what happens when they run out?


I dont see how pulling HKD deposits will do anything to hurt China at large, aside from potentially causing financial turmoil in Hong Kong itself. Shanghai overtook HK as the port of capital entry for China years ago, so it doesnt seem like a strategy that is based on sound thinking.


Wouldn't this pinpoint protestors to the Chinese government? I'm sure they could easily get the bank records.


Wouldn’t there just be a lot of people getting robbed?


Not that there is any evidence of this. But I wonder if China is low key spreading this idea to silently win over the protests. You create a banking crisis in Hong Kong (weakening Hong Kong's economic leverage). Piss off a bunch of foreign investors/institutions tied to HK and their banking system against the protestors. And create a situation where direct Chinese intervention can be deemed necessary. Brilliant judo move if it is. Though I hope the protestors do get their way rather than the mainland personally.


30-year Treasury yield falls below 2% for the first time ever (8/15/2019) ~ Economics

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Borrow a ton and spend on infrastructure.


Well let's see, the Fed is more than willing to print and borrow whatever it must to subsidize our governments insane spending during "boom" times and this is what you get. But first, let's get interest to zero which it's now doing.


Over the last 30 years, inflation has average 2.5%. The government can now borrow a fixed term loan at under 2% for 30 years. Why are people lining up to watch their purchasing power fall?


Billionaires have bought all the yachts and planes and real estate and stocks they want. Now they're just dumping their income into bonds.


Can someone explain this to me like I am 5. What does this mean for us. whats going to happen because of it. How to we overcome this?


Goldman Sacs Dipping into Subprime Lending with Apple Card (8/11/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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> Oswald said Goldman is giving him a relatively modest credit limit of $750. can't get into that much trouble with such a low limit


Does this card even have benefits or are people wanting it because it’s an “Apple” thing?


What are people seeing as far as rates and limits on either end as far as credit? I have about an 800 and got the 12.9%, curious what others are seeing on the opposite end. Limit cap seems to be $30k.


Any credit card will get anyone into trouble if they aren’t responsible with it.


Wait.... a score of 620 is bad? 😐


My mother was in control of finances and now I’m 80k in debt (8/12/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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Pursue legal action immediately, independent of what she does. Perhaps your school has free or discounted legal services you can look into, worth exploring. She's put you in a very serious situation and will continue to exploit you so long as you let her.


I cannot stress this enough - your mother clearly knows how to manipulate you and will continue to try and do so as long as you give her the chance. You need to cut all financial ties immediately and pursue action wherever possible. I'm not trying to insult you - she sounds like a borderline-evil person to selfishly put so much harm onto her child. I feel for you OP.


You need to file a police report, it's the only thing that will save you here. Your mother is a criminal. I'm sorry OP.


Pursue legal action now for the credit cards. You will need to contact the fraud department of each company you’re indebted to and go through the steps of showing that you are not responsible for these charges. You will probably also need to file a police report against your mother. As for your student debt, unfortunately you are responsible for that. Get a handle on it and start a repayment plan as soon as possible.


If your mother signed your name to open up debt or credit in your name it is criminal fraud. You are not liable for debt taken out without your permission. However, in order to begin the discharge of these debts you will need to file a police report and file criminal charges. Which very well may result in her arrest. This is a decision I don’t think anyone can take lightly. So you need to make the right choice for you. I think there is a clear choice that needs to be taken (unless you make a ton of money to pay this off). Your mom is not going to pay this back. She can’t shes broke. She has no money to pay you back. I’m so sorry you are facing this. I can’t imagine being in this situation. I can’t believe people exist who do this to their kids.


Trump hammers “clueless Jay Powell” and the fed, rails against “crazy inverted yield curve” (8/14/2019) ~ Economics

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The yield curve reflects investor confidence. Tweeting about the Fed doing a terrible job and the yield curve being "crazy" will only lower confidence.


From the article— “CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE!” the president wrote. “We should easily be reaping big Rewards & Gains, but the Fed is holding us back. We will Win!” Trump also claimed “we are winning, big time” in his administration’s trade conflict with the world’s second-largest economy. “China is not our problem,” but rather “our problem is with the Fed” and its interest rate policy, he said.


I don’t understand, the Fed just cut the rates. How are thy working against Trump?


Ironically his persistence in trying to undermine the FED is one of the strongest arguments to keep rates the same. Guess he learned nothing from obstructing justice but why would he when he has received no consequences.


Just another example of our dear leader's incompetence on the matter of economics. He is best suited to be a reality TV star since he has a proven to be a failure as a business man.


Japan surpasses China as largest foreign holder of US Treasurys (8/16/2019) ~ Economics

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Robust demand for US debt from mostly all major countries. Hopefully, those harping about China weaponizing their holdings of US debt will end, it obviously wouldn't work unless appetite for treasurys declines drastically.


I for one welcome our new, extremely well-behaved overlords.


I find it interesting that Japan, of all nations, is the one to surpass China. Does Japan by a lot of United States debt for some reason? I was under the impression that they were a relatively stagnant economy.


Can someone explainlikeimfive this please? I know other countries own US debt but first off why do they do this and why does China not want to ease their owning of US debt? That seems like that would be a great way for China to get back at the US for the trade war.


Thats not a good sign... for us or them


5 of the world’s biggest economies are at risk of recession (8/14/2019) ~ Economics

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> China's massive economy is growing at the slowest pace in nearly three decades as the country wages a prolonged trade war with the United States, which will impose new taxes on Chinese exports in September and December. And this why US media can’t be trusted - their framing of issues always externalizes blame. It’s not China who’s been waging a trade war, it’s the US. Just as Iran is not flaunting the terms of the nuclear deal, that’s the US. Even a supposedly ‘anti-Trump’ or ‘Democratic’ medium like CNN employs a postmodern bending of words that’s usually associated with the right, and so can’t bring itself to be fair with its audience. The problem with the governmental system in the US in a nutshell.


Well that is a short article that seems to lack substance. For so long as we push public confidence higher than the equilbrium between aggregate investment and GDP, we will have bubbles, both Hayek and Keynes agreed on this. While Hayek did not seem correct on many things, one area history has demonstrated him correct over the last 40 years is that for every bubble there is a contraction. The greater the bubble, the greater the contraction will eventually be. This understanding is why many of the world's wealthy actively pursue an economic strategy of waiting until a contraction hits rock bottom, and then buying up real investments for low prices. Dozens of reasons aside a contraction is always coming, the positive economic evidence on that is clear. The question I think should be answered is what ratio of wealth inequality is optimal for a faster recovery? Because from what I see the biggest problem is that contractions facilitate a drastic negative derivative on aggregate demand, not on elasticity of various markets but specifically on the average or median person's ability to afford good/services that create the velocity of money in a given economy. We have seen governments use surplus policies as a theory for this before, but I think debt forgiveness and write off might be the best way to go with a focus on homes and education, or perhaps subsidies offering relocation as a means to develop undeveloped land.


Not sure for other biggest economies, but for the US. The inverted curve simply means the fed has to cut rate more aggressively if they really want to avoid recession. However, a brief recession doesn’t mean there will be a financial crisis nor >30% drop in stock market either.


Actual question because I don’t know any better: Aren’t recessions inevitable/part of the economic growth cycle?


The Federal Reserve doesn’t lower interest rates when the economy is doing well. There will be another surge in the stock market come September when the federal reserve lowers interest rates again but they’ll almost be back to zero after that. Inflation is taking place and has been for a while now. Buy gold.


I’ve reproduced 130+ research papers about “predicting the stock market”, coded them from scratch and recorded the results. Here’s what I’ve learnt. (8/16/2019) ~ Stock Market

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Dude you did a meta study! Get in contact with a uni and a financial econ prof to get published. This is good shit if you were rigorous Edit: fixed word


Thanks for this. I just started getting serious with active investment and I'm currently reading a couple books/papers. Questions please: 1. Which of the 6 categories of papers gives you the most confidence? 2. What language did you use for implementation and how did you get the data? 3. What paper/books impressed you the most or has simple strategies.


Okay, okay - this is a very neat summary, but to add some credibility to your conclusions would you show some numbers/specific details from your research? I mean, why would I believe in all these?


tl;dr nobody knows shit Do you have a bin/list of the papers?


Reproducibility is a real problem in academia. Open source code should be published with all models. u/chiefkul, you also need to publish your results for the authors to refute also.


In January, WeWork announced it was rebranding as The We Company. It bought trademarks for “we.” From whom? We Holdings LLC, an entity controlled by WeWork CEO Adam Neumann “we” cost $5.9 million. (8/15/2019) ~ Investing

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The CEO of WeWork seems super sketchy. I can’t believe a real board would let him get away with all this. He seems to just be finding inventive ways to pull money out of the company. Edit: a word


I feel legitimately bad for anyone who gets suckered into buying their stock at IPO. Seems like a Boiler Room type of situation with a bunch of shady Wall Street guys selling this shit to people who have no idea what they're doing.


can’t wait to short this


Even without the shady stuff, there doesn’t seem to be anything innovative or compelling about their business model from what I’ve heard so far. Am I missing something? Sounds like a complete shit company


r/WallStreetBets WeWork just bought the commercial rights to the word ‘we’ so they’ll be getting royalties from literally all English media and literature from now on. Buy calls. Even though they’ll somehow still manage to be unprofitable...


Hong Kong protests ‘more serious’ than US-China trade war for global markets (8/13/2019) ~ Finance

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He has a point. An overreaction by China would destroy an enormous amount of value. And the Chinese government is more afraid of looking weak than they are of any economic consequences. I've divested entirely from HK equities and bonds. There's much safer markets in Asia anyway.


Hong Kong *is* the financial (services) and physical (shipping) link between East and West. China ought to treat the situation carefully.


We're listening to Jim Cramer's opinion now? Shit must've really gotten desperate. Not saying he's wrong about this, but the dude is an awful source of investing information.


The real black swan...


Trump: "Hold my Covfefe."


GE shares drop after Madoff whistleblower Harry Markopolos raises red flags on its accounting (8/15/2019) ~ Investing

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From the GE statement: > “The allegations we have heard are entirely false and misleading,” GE said in a statement. “The Company has never met, spoken to or had contact with Mr. Markopolos, **and we are extremely disappointed that an individual with no direct knowledge of GE** would choose to make such serious and unsubstantiated claims. " If I'm not mistaken, GE just put in writing that you have no direct knowledge of GE if you are examining only their financial reports. And to be fair, that is kind of what Harry Markopolos is also saying.


I skimmed halfway through the report. It's very detailed and pulls in news articles about reinsurance from the early 2000s. Really good work. I never knew much about the LTC insurance business until now. Recommended read.


Markopolous-to-market accounting


Isn't a lot of the uncertainty about their accounting already priced in? Wasn't that a factor in how it went from $31 to $6 in the first place? I know that it's why I didn't buy the dip


As usual, the Seeking Alpha comments on news articles associated with this are full of bagholders questioning the motives behind this report... yet no one is debunking what's said.


56 years-old and extremely frightened about affording old age. (8/11/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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Apply for Medicaid right now. If you're cashed out and still in debt and your only income is SSDI, then youre basically the poster child for Medicaid. Also right now, apply for manufacturer assistance programs for any expensive prescription medications. They often send your doctor months or a year of free drugs for you. Later, once you're on SSDI for 24 months, you will be enrolled in Medicare A and B. If at that point you do not have Medicaid for some reason, apply for Medicaid again and they will automatically consider you for Medicare Savings Programs if you still can't get Medicaid. All Medicare Savings Programs automatically qualify you for Extra Help, which is a prescription drug subsidy that can pay premiums and take out of pocket costs way down to potentially nothing. Edit to add: A few states have State Pharmaceutical Assistance Programs too. Basically Medicaid Lite for drugs only. Check for one in your state now too.


To be completely frank, your horizon and hers are completely different. Do you have any for of life insurance? At this point you need to figure out what your end of life goals are . 10 year survival after heart transplant is about 50%. You gotta figure out what assets can be kept isolated so when your health care costs rise again , she’ll have some protection. Edit: just to tag on to my own post, I just wanted to wax a little on how ridiculous this situation is that two hard working people have basically mortgaged their entire future for 10 extra years for one spouse.


Honestly, a lot of times their kids have to take them in and take care of them. Many end up having to work part time jobs in retirement years, because their savings were wiped out before Medicare kicked in. Next time you go to the grocery store, you will notice a lot of the cashier's are elderly. Some use it to kill time, but many actually need that money to live off, because SS is just not enough to live on in most cities.


You might be better off divorced. Your wife [ex] would be able to build retirement savings back up. It might also allow you to hold onto any real estate you co-own.


Unfortunately, it’s not pretty in the US. Can your kids take care of you? Otherwise there isn’t much of a safety net. Just SS/Disability, Medicare/Medicaid, HUD housing subsidies, food stamps — the normal low-income programs, basically.


GE shares drop after Madoff whistleblower Harry Markopolos calls it a ‘bigger fraud than Enron’ (8/15/2019) ~ Finance

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Sorry am I understanding this report correctly that GE effectively has $140 billion in liabilities? If so this company is a dead ship in the water!


That's quite the statement. "Smartest men in the room" (Netflix) was very eye opening.


GE stock has been a god damn joke since 2000


GE has been a dumpster fire since Immelt took over. Worst CEO in modern history.


Am a credit analyst, we have a small relationship with GE, too. I'm not responsible for the file so I don't know much about the company. I'm skimming the report and will probably be reading it fully in the weekend, but just reading the first few pages this kind of smells like bullshit. The LTC losses are worrying, but this is rarely a problem that is life-threatening. There are serious allegations in there (treating premiums as revenues and not building up any reserves), but it seems crazy to me that the problem would be as serious as described and completely overlooked by all people analyzing this company. It would create a shockwave in the entire financial world that it's possibly to hide so much liabilities without anyone noticing. Huge if true, but I doubt his analysis is accurate / fully honest. However, the next two points just seem silly: Not deconsolidating Baker Hughes and taking a 9 billion loss does not seem like a huge deal to me. The only thing this could trigger is some equity covenants being breached, but I don't think a company like GE would have an issue with getting covenants waived. Maybe Baker Hughes has an atypically large share of GE's profitability and cash flow, but this is something that analysts certainly are aware of, especially their bankers. And unless I understood something wrong, GE still has a 50,4% interest in BH, anyway. Finally, he points to GE hiding their "working capital". Again, this is not something he "discovered", it's not because WC is not disclosed that there are analysts working on GE out there that are not looking to WC. Every analyst working on GE has looked at GE's WC. And working capital can be consistently "weak" without being an issue for the company, it depends on a huge amount of things. I did not find any analysis on what historic WC has been (maybe I'm looking over it & I will come across it in the weekend)at GE, if it has been stable at .70ish numbers I don't think this is a big deal.


YIELD CURVE INVERTS: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2007 (8/14/2019) ~ Finance

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"The market’s most closely watched part of the yield curve inverted today, and if its record over the last half decade is any indicator, the U.S. could be headed for a recession soon" "Half decade" I think the author meant "half century". This has been an indicator for 50 years not 5.


Can someone ELI5 on yield curve inversions?


I thought this already happened a few weeks ago


2/10s. Last time it happened was 2007. UK 2/10s did the same (last time was 2008). Also, they halted ultra bond futures again (3 handle move is when they halt). Ultras were trading 176-16 August 1st and as we speak at the 195 handle. If you bought a 1 lot you would be up almost $18 grand now.


This was always coming, but lil Donnie's trade war sure had brought it in closer


Apple, technology stocks spike, after Trump administration delays China tariffs on electronics until December (8/13/2019) ~ Investing

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Please keep on topic (investing) and not political complaints/conspiracy theory.


This is crazy. How can the supply chain operate when it discovers that we’re placing huge tariffs on Mexico (over a non trade related spat), only to delay them, only to discover a huge new tariff on items we import from China, only to see that delayed too? All basically over Twitter. This is not how you make American business thrive and invest, this is how you make them hunker down from the uncertainty.


Lol this is so easy to predict. Tariffs announced: market tanks. A week later tariffs delayed: market shoots back up. If you're a swing trader, this is a perfect time to be doing it.


Trump is a fucking clown with all this wishy washy tariff talk, dude will cave so hard if that’s what it takes to boost the stock market for re election


Trump is literally just promising tariffs because he hates foreign trade for whatever reason and then repealing or delaying those same tariffs when the stock market doesn't go the way he wants it to. There's going to be a point where he delays / repeals a tariff and the stock market doesn't go back up because the boy-president called wolf one too many times


10-2 Yield Spread narrows to levels not seen in 12 years (mid-2007). (8/12/2019) ~ Investing

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D-do we just continue dollar-cost averaging through this shit?


Feel like the recession will come in the next 18 months. Germany tanking, US-China trade war, Japan not doing well and I have to say this: I hate those people who are always saying the next crash will come now because of this and this but the inverted yield curve is a very **strong** signal in my opinion ( Correct me if you think I'm wrong)


***Back in November 2018 when the first inversion happened (5 year - 2 year)*** **Me:** All inversions are significant, and one inversion typically leads to other inversions eventually occuring. **Most people:** But the 10-2 curve is not inverted, and the 10-3m curve is not inverted. Things are fine ​ ***Back in December When the Fed Paused Rate Hikes*** **Me:** This is bearish and a sign of not so good things. We will see more inversions occurring as a result of this in the coming months / quarters as the market starts to discount a rate cutting cycle. **Most people:** Stocks are going up, we're fine. ​ ***Back in March 2019 After The Majority of The Curve Inverts, Including the 10y-3month*** **Me:** The 10-2 yield curve is arbitrary, and not as important as the media portrays. The main reason it's so widely analyzed is nothing more than sample size and backfitting. Markets are going up not because the economy is doing well, but because of liquidity and everyone betting on discount rates relative to stocks, while expecting a recovery in the 2nd half of 2019 that won't materialize. The 10y - 2y will invert next, but the damage is already done and it's not that relevant at this point. **Most People:** Stocks are going up, and the 10y-2y is not inverted yet. A trade deal will save the economy. ​ ***Now: 10-2y yield curve is threatening inversion after 3 months of 10-3my inversion and entire yield curve beneath fed funds rate*** **Me:** Whether the 10-2 ever inverts at this point is pretty meaningless considering the entire curve is below the fed funds rate. The increasing likelihood is that negative feedback loops (what Soros would call reflexivity) in the global economy start to take hold, and will then come to dominate the market environment, resulting in a lot of volatility and potential downside in the next 0-2 years. **Most People:** 10-2 yield curve isn't inverted yet, and we get 6-18 months before a recession after this signal. My growth stocks are also higher, so nothing could be going wrong. ​ **Just sharing my view..** There are major global structural problems in the global economy that are slowly dragging the USA into a recession. People who only focus on one sector or just the USA are missing the bigger picture since for once, the USA is being led lower by the rest of the world instead of the other way around. In a lot of ways, we're in an inverse situation of 2007-2008, where the USA is the place people are parking their money as a safe haven while the rest of the world is threatening a banking / real estate crisis of sorts. I think for investors, the biggest lesson in the big picture here is that even if you're in a "late cycle" market environment like I personally believe we are, the best way to position yourself initially is to be long safe havens instead of trying to hero-short stocks. Historically, rate cuts always get baked in before any market "crashes" occur, and in the event that markets don't actually crash, you will have an opportunity to de-risk, see a lot of outsized gains with your safe haven holdings, and the safe-havens themselves will likely stay elevated for a while even after markets start to recover. ​ **Obviously, take this all with a grain of salt.** I've made my mistakes with trading this / playing it, but I've been broadly right on the economy and everything that has happened over the last 1-2 years. Worst case scenario, being less greedy is never a bad thing. For most people, trying to short the market or buy yolo puts is a dumb idea that will see them lose lots of $. But as I've said for a while, it's a good time to be less greedy, take some risk off the table, and be more cautious with buying 5% down dips.


The yield on 30 year dropped 25 basis points since August 1st OF THIS YEAR from 1.9 to 1.65. WTF is going on? How rare is that?


Lots of folks here say "don't time the market." This is a terrible oversimplification. Options - now THAT'S timing the market. So is shorting, or buying 2x/3x ETFs. All very dangerous, and almost guaranteed to lose money over the long term, for 90% of folks anyway. Diversifying from the tech-heavy S&P, with varying levels of TLT, BND, GLD, VNQ, XLU and SHY, and rebalancing on dips and surges - that works, if you can maintain some discipline. If you're not doing that, just making monthly contributions to VOO via your 401k, and plan on holding through downturns through the next 20-30 years - then why are you wasting precious time here?


“Strike it big stocks for the next decade”, a serious approach. (8/11/2019) ~ Investing

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Everyone is alllllways obsessed with tech and tech stocks they don't understand. For decades, dating back to the 1950s and 60s, people have bought into overhyped tech and lost their shirts. You know what would have made you rich over the long run? Dunkin donuts, Lowe's at one point, pep boys, Subaru......there are so many boring stocks that would have made you rich in the long run that are far easier to understand than the latest block chain, ai, machine learning or whatever else hype tech vocab is the flavor of the day or stocks in companies you'd need a PhD in particle physics to understand. Someone could have made a 1000% return on MASCO back in the day because they had an innovative product for faucet handles. Strike it rich stocks don't have to be complicated or invent new tech at all. You need to find undervalued companies with solid fundamentals that also have a clear vision for growth. People got *insanely* wealthy on a stock like Domino's Pizza, which for a while there, provided even better returns than on stocks like Google, Apple and Netflix. How hard is it to understand pizza vs Google's foray into cloud computing, ai, and the nuts and bolts of driverless tech? Often times you'll see complete novices strike it rich when they buy some boring ass stock because they had a good experience with a company's product and service, while people who spend inordinate amounts of time looking into the latest and greatest tech wallow for years with no or very little gains. The point is that you shouldn't overthink it. Buy what you know.


I'll add a few to the list from my portfolio. LTBR - Uranium/Thorium hybrid assemblies for new and existing reactors. They fill the gap between current nuclear and future liquid salt thorium reactors. Runs cooler, more efficient, and prevents nuclear proliferation. MTLO.VN - SD-WAN Unified Communications specialists. They provide network performance solutions for a number of complex IT environments including a recent proof of concept for use with autonomous vehicles. The management team and board on this one is outstanding IMO. CUBE.CN - They make Vanadium redox batteries for energy storage. With the rise of renewables being almost certain the need for effective modular storage options is going to be immense. SCYX - Drug company in phase 3 trials for SCY-078 a novel in vitro and in vivo treatment for candidiasis. With the continuing outbreak of MDR Candida Auris they are incredibly well positioned to help fight the increasing threat. VPT.VN - Medical device company that developed and is beginning to market an affordable non-intrusive whole heart diagnostic machine. Heart disease is a huge issue currently and is likely to get worse over the next few decades creating ample demand for an affordable preemptive solution.


Thanks bro. Going to liquidate all of my VTSAX and pile into those names!


"GH" Has basically home run-ed every quarter since the IPO last October, including another +20% after the quarter the other day. Long a number of these names, as well.


Remindme! 5 years


JOSEPH E. STIGLITZ: Trump’s Deficit Economy (8/11/2019) ~ Economics

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>If lowering the interest rate from 5.25% to essentially zero had little impact on the economy in 2008-09, why should we think that lowering rates by 0.25% will have any observable effect? Large corporations are still sitting on hoards of cash: it’s not a lack of liquidity that’s stopping them from investing.


Wait, Stiglitz thinks dropping interest rates to zero in the 2008 recession had "little impact"? Does he just mean it wasn't enough by itself to reverse the recession, or does he really think the monetary loosening was a total waste of time?


>If lowering the interest rate from 5.25% to essentially zero had little impact on the economy in 2008-09, why should we think that lowering rates by 0.25% will have any observable effect? Large corporations are still sitting on hoards of cash: it’s not a lack of liquidity that’s stopping them from investing. Well, basically. How much evidence do we need to know that both income and wealth have funneled to the top to a degree that is crippling demand? The time that this wasn't obvious passed a long time ago. Sure, lowing rates has a very mild wealth effect because it pushes up asset prices but who holds most of the assets? The odd thing, to me, is that if the wealthy and corporations worked together on policies to increase spending power of the bottom 99% they'd actually be able to make *even more* money. Andrew Yang's freedom dividend is a great way to do that. I think it's an idea they should really get behind and stop scaremongering it. We need to so something about the hollowing out of demand on the lower end and rate cuts ain't it chief.


“America should be in a boom, with three enormous fiscal-stimulus measures in the past three years. The 2017 tax cut, which mainly benefited billionaires and corporations, added some $1.5-2 trillion to the ten-year deficit. An almost $300 billion increase in expenditures over two years averted a government shutdown in 2018. And at the end of July, a new agreement to avoid another shutdown added another $320 billion of spending. If it takes trillion-dollar annual deficits to keep the US economy going in good times, what will it take when things are not so rosy?”


There are so many people in this subreddit that desperately, *desperately* need to go to their local community college and take a basic Econ 101 and 102 class. The sheer amount of economic illiteracy in this subreddit, especially from those who still believe in trickle-down economics and all its variants, is drowning this sub in misinformation and alarmism.


Farmers ‘profoundly disappointed’ by Trump’s wheat comments (8/16/2019) ~ Economics

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> "Many car plants — they’re coming in from Japan. I told Prime Minister Abe — great guy. I said, 'Listen, we have a massive deficit with Japan.' They send thousands and thousands — millions — of cars. We send them wheat. Wheat. (Laughter.) That’s not a good deal. And they don’t even want our wheat. They do it because they want us to at least feel that we’re okay. You know, they do it to make us feel good." I guess you learn something every day. I had no idea that Japan bought wheat from us just to make us feel good. I've got to hand it to the President on this one, dropping this kind of knowledge. If Japan buys our wheat to make America feel good, America's wheat farmers must feel *really good*. They're in capable hands, after all.


>Wheat farmers are at a trading disadvantage with Japan because Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade treaty. Competing wheat-producing countries such as Canada and Australia remained in the agreement. As part of that agreement, those nations with see Japanese tariffs on wheat reduced in coming years. Ummm.... guys... I don't think it's going to get any better....


3 out of every 4 “Japanese” cars bought in the US are built in North America...Yes let’s target companies that built factories in the US and employ Americans.


At some point US farmers WILL realize what has been blazingly obvious to 60% of the country. That Trump (a sociopathic New York City real estate huckster who's been a millionaire since he was 6 years old and has driven multiple businesses into the ground) does not give a rats ass about them, that he is manifestly unfit to manage a 7-11, let alone the US, and that he is only out for himself. One hopes that realization comes BEFORE he utterly destroys their businesses. Not holding my breath though


Is Trump trying to kill all of the small farmers in the U.S.?


Hit-and-Run on my Parked Car (8/11/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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File a police report and try and figure out if any security cameras are pointed in that area. I honestly wouldn't hold out much hope for the camera footage, but you may get lucky.


I love how you described your car vs what the photo actually shows. "and my front wheel looks out of place". *Looks at photo. What I would have wrote in your situation: "This morning I discovered that my car WAS SMASHED TO FUCKING SHIT!".


Also check into state laws. This happened to me years go while living in Georgia. GA law did not allow insurance company to raise my rates or charge me a deductible for hit and run. (Police report was required validating this claim.)


1. File a police report. The officers (you can help) will try to track down any cameras that might have caught it. 2. Contact your insurance right away. Take lots of pictures. CYA 100% that your vehicle was parked. Note the paint color that was transferred to your vehicle for step 3. 3. Search the immediate area for the vehicle that hit you. In some cases, the offending vehicle will “limp” away from the scene and get ditched. Check parking lots, quiets roads, etc. Police will probably do this as well. If you find an abandoned vehicle with matching damage, call the police. I’d guess insurance will total out this car, especially if airbags deployed (hard to see from pics). Sorry internet person - this sucks.


>looks like it was hit Bit of an understatement don't you think?


Vanguard Pulls Two Dozen Stocks from Ethical ETFs (8/13/2019) ~ Investing

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What I really want is for my ETFs to exclude fossil fuel companies.


The ETF is eventually going to have nothing in it


who determines the ethics of these ETFs? by what criteria?


Wtf, why GSK?


Ethical ETF's typical major holdings include a wide array of objectively unethical companies, shit's always been a scam.


Buying a house no longer feels achievable. (8/11/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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You guys make about $15/hr each. That's just not very much money. If you're in even a decent sized city in Ohio, 15/hr is unskilled labor rates. One or both of you are going to have to put more effort in to your career and dig out of the entry level wages or you're going to be living in apartments with other entry level wage workers. You don't have a finance problem, you have a career problem if you want to own a home. Edit: I mentioned this in another comment but because the shame police have their pitchforks ready, there are 3 things OP can do: 1. Make more money 2. Buy something in a less desirable neighborhood (or whatever variables they are willing to give on to reduce the purchase price) 3. Buy a fixer-upper and learn to DIY. OP's family has made the choice to keep the jobs they have, so they are down to 2 or 3. You don't have to have any special skills to do most home repairs...just patience, free time, youtube, and a little cash for supplies.


I'm not sure where you are specifically, but I'm from the Cleveland area and there are tons of up-and-coming neighborhoods on the west side. Granted not all of them are cheap and the neighborhoods are still a little run-down,but there's plenty of nice houses for well under 200k. If you're not in Cleveland, the best thing to do would be, like you mentioned, talk to a seasoned realtor and not about any house in particular, but just about the market and whether they know of anything that might suit your needs. In addition to a realtor, maybe speak to a financial planner or personal banker. They can help you figure out your financing and possibly make buying a house seem a lot more manageable. You seem to be good with savings and emergency funds, (also congrats on paying off that debt) so I'm sure someone would be more than happy to help you with something that seems totally within your means. Good luck to you and your husband!


If you have 25k saved now but want to keep 10k for emergency(good idea) that leaves 15k. You likely will need around 8k for closing costs so that leaves 7k for a down payment. If a suitable home costs 160k then you need 8k for a 5% down payment. You're very close to that number. Assuming 2k property taxes and PMI, your mortgage payment would be approximately $1,050. You should save about 10% of your payment a month for maintenance savings so around $100. That means your monthly total would be around $1,150. What are you paying for rent currently? I think you only feel hopeless because you had to pay off all that debt first. If you didn't have that debt and had that extra 20k in savings, you'd be pretty close to being able to put down 20% on a 160k house to avoid PMI which would obviously put you in a much better place.


For most people with low incomes the reality is you are better off buying the cheapest fixer upper house in the area you like and then improving it using your own sweat equity. Just make sure the house is structurally sound. Everything else is just cosmetic anyway. Volunteer at a few habitat for humanity builds and you can learn a lot of skills that would help you and give you confidence in repairing your own home.


saving more will help but if you really want to become a homeowner you should probably look to increase your income between you and your husband somehow. With more income you wouldn't feel hopeless because you would be saving more and would have more budget to work with. Whether thats applying for new jobs that pay more or asking your current employer for a raise is going to vary but I'd look at that as the easiest way for you to become a homeowner sooner than trying to save up with your current income. You could always start from the bottom and look at your months spending vs income and visualize your budget to see if there are any areas to reduce costs which will allow you to save up and reach your goal sooner.


L Brands CEO Les Wexner has been giving documents to investigators showing alleged Jeffrey Epstein theft (8/12/2019) ~ Finance

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Yep, Wexner selling Epstein an NY mansion for $0 is definately "irregular."


That's a clever strategy. Pretend you weren't being blackmailed, and instead suggest that "things just don't add up - he must have been stealing without my knowledge."


>L Brands founder Les Wexner and his legal team have been providing documents to federal investigators that they believe show Jeffrey Epstein misappropriated funds while the child predator was Wexner’s money manager. >Wexner believes the evidence demonstrates “all sorts of irregularities and theft,” one person with direct knowledge of the matter said. >“There were things that were completely wrong and transactions that weren’t appropriate,” this person added. The person would not divulge details beyond that description. >The New York Times reported on Sunday that Epstein’s finances could become a focal point of the remaining investigation. The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday that the Wexner family has been cooperating with the government’s investigation in recent weeks by providing information related to Epstein’s role as their financial advisor.


Read one article where one of Epstein's victim's ran away from him - while Epstein and the young girl were at Wexner's property/house. The girl was prevented from leaving by Wexner's security. TRhat Wexner is only complaining now about Epstein's ~~blackmail~~ theft merely demonstrates culpability. A man like that allows theft? Watch a kid try to steal a piece of clothing from one of his stores. Epstein owned him, owned him so bad he had to STFU when tens of millions were extorted under his nose. Here are the keys to my business ol' buddy. I want a mansion Wexler give it to me as well. Sure. Revolting people. No wonder the FBI focuses on lefties instead of these creeps. They are the power.


The name Les Wexner sounds like a villain


Goldman Sachs lowered its fourth-quarter growth forecast by 20 basis points to 1.8% (8/11/2019) ~ Investing

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So is this how they manage to get rid of trump?


In this case, what does 20 basis points mean? Were they predicting 2% and dropped to 1.8%, or something else?


It is still not clear how much will be the impact. But I hope this trade war will not end on the crisis.


It’s ok. 1.8 is now considered growth that can sustain more upside to this market.


Bears win, stock crashing, sell sell sell. People been saying this for years lol. Stupid d bears.


If Donald Trump has been repeatedly telling us that the trade war is good for the US, why is he concerned with the affect it would have on goods around Christmas time? (8/15/2019) ~ Stock Market

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Because he's lying.


Below is a quote from The Washington Post. Hope this helps. *The announcement, which came from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, ensures that Apple products and other major consumer goods would be shielded from the import tax until at least December, potentially keeping costs on these products down during the holiday shopping season.*


This is the last Christmas before the 2020 election. When November 2020 rolls around, his campaign does not want graphs thrown up on national TV showing how poor last Christmas shopping season was compared to the previous ones. Especially when those graphs will show up two or three days before the election. This seems to be solely a forward thinking, stave off future disaster move by his campaign. Trump may make dumb policy, but he does have a full time and professional spin team and re-election arm that occasionally gets a win.


Because this is the kind of logic that lubricates the hamster wheels in Trump supporters' tiny little brains.


Cause it’s lies.


2/10 just inverted…. does it matter? (8/14/2019) ~ Investing

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I’ll let you know in 12-18 months


According to the current market, literally nothing matters.


From a psychological standpoint it's a significant event, especially if it remains inverted for some time. From a fundamental standpoint there's nothing magical about the spread being -0.02 vs 0.02. As the curve flattens and becomes inverted the spread banks can generate shrinks. There's a lot of theory that an inverted curve is a self fulfilling prophecy since it results in an evaporation of credit which obviously poses a significant drag on growth. But it's not like that condition magically appears once the 2/10 or even 3mo/10 spreads cross below 0.


What I find significant is this happened after “good news” IE trump delaying some tariffs on China which should had reduced pressure on inversion but didn’t. Bonds are def saying something that equities aren’t.


It's the third horseman. The fourth will be a sudden spike in layoffs. Watch the jobs data and be defensive.


Bank of America raises chance of a recession to 1-in-3 in the next 12 months (8/12/2019) ~ Economics

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I give it 100% that a recession will hit several times in my lifetime.


The legendary Paul Krugman has been predicting one since November 2016. One of these days, when recession hits, Krugman and B of A will dance together in celebration of the joys of being proven right.


I'm giving it 50/50 to start by 2020. When those Tariffs actually kick in and China puts boots on the ground in HK shit's gonna get messy.


Pretty soon you'll be able to short your 401k's at BOA ha..


Is this supposed to be bad news? Isnt this the longest streak we have had without going into recession and there is a good chance we will go another year before seeing one?


Confused investors keep buying FORD, thinking it’s Ford (8/13/2019) ~ Stock Market

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A small part of me wants to call these people stupid. Who mistakes these stocks and then proceed to buy them without making sure it's exactly what they wanted? You're dealing with some serious money that matters to you. Gotta make sure it's right the first time. Not to mention most platforms I've been using will autocorrect to the ticker symbol if you type the full name in...




How do I get in on stupidity arbitrage? Seems like a sure bet. If Ford motors has good earnings, which cause FORD to go up, I can then short FORD because there’s nothing holding up its value and it will likely go back down again.


What’s funny is if you type in FORD into most search engines for brokers or the Nasdaq, you often get Forward pop up first before Ford simply because it searches for the ticker before the Company itself.


Why would it be AAPL and not APPL


What is your morning “financial news” routine? (8/12/2019) ~ Investing

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Wake up, check futures. Now and then if there's an unanticipated change I'll glance at headlines. Drink coffee, browse through Reddit, SlopeofHope. A couple of times per week I'll either have on TastyTrade or CNBC while getting ready. That's it. I don't time my trades according to headlines beyond the basics of buy the rumor / sell the news.


Wake up, drank. Pull up, drank


First, coffee and r/wallstreetbets, mostly just for a good laugh to wake up to. Then I come here and to r/stocks to see what everyone's been talking about. Then I go to Yahoo to check my portfolio and see if any new news has developed since the morning before. Then I usually just browse market news on Google. And usually, when I'm not listening to Pandora at work, I'll have CNBC going on in the background...not so much because I'm interested in listening, more so I just like the background noise rather then just sitting in silence at my desk. Granted, I'm more of a passive investor and let auto-deposits DCA for me. But when I hear/read decent news, I'll buy extra every now and then.


Ignore most of it since it’s usually all garbage/entertainment


1. I cry 2. ....


Bank run in Hong Kong (8/15/2019) ~ Investing

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How are they so much smarter in their protest tactics?


Isn't HK's financial system independent of mainland China? Seems like they would only hurt themselves.


It would probably be a minimal effect. Even if they got a million people to do it, it would amount to about $1.3 billion in total. The Hong Kong monetary authority has about $450 billion in us dollars backing the HK dollar.


In a world of fractional reserve banking, a sudden draw on cash like this could ripple through the liquidity side of the house. Hong Kong is sitting on a massive amount of US-backed cash, so the impact of a withdrawal like this will be mitigated, but I think it will still be felt.


HKD is already pegged to USD and backed by the HK govt's massive currency reserves. They might be able to put a dent in the currency reserves, at best.


Always confirm your credit card statements after hotel visits, it just saved me $400 at a recent stay in a Marriott property. (8/13/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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Id like to some day get to the point where i wouldn't notice a 400 charge lol


Happened to me a few months ago. I put my credit card down on a room for a business stay because my boss’ flight was a few hours after mine. My coworker did the same thing with her room. At the end of the stay my boss called on both of our behalves to close the room down and put it on her card instead of ours. My coworkers went through fine. I got a $500 bill charged to my card.


This is why I love credit cards where the app sends you a notification every time the card is charged! No more worrying that it's getting charged when you aren't looking.


Having worked for a Marriott and done front desk. From the employee perspective, this is actually really easy to do to a guest if you’re not paying attention. What is supposed to happen if you prepay is that you set up two folios in the system. One that has the payment details for the travel agent the other is the incidentals account for things like parking, room charges, phone calls and dry cleaning etc. A lot of places if they have a quiet morning will help prep evening shift by splitting all the folios and setting everything up for a quick check in. Then the evening person needs to pay attention and only swipe the guests card on to the second folio. If they’re not paying attention and going quickly. It’s very easy to swipe the card, and then go through the prompts and then swipe the card a second time not realizing. A good night auditor should be able to catch it. But it gets harder with stuff like because they can use prepaid credit card numbers and you’d have to check each number rather than if it’s just billing or credit card.


Great advice. Additionally - check doctors bills to make sure they're added correctly. I caught a 100 dollar mistake from my dentist this morning.


IRS Budget Cuts Result In Billions In Lost Tax Revenue (8/16/2019) ~ Economics

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Damn. We could have used that revenue to fund the military more.


Combine this with the GOP tax plan and minimal efforts to curb spending. And yet the GOP establishment suddenly pretend to act shocked when the deficit skyrockets.


That's your tax cut, America.


Did they seriously cut the IRS's budget again? We in too much debt for that shit. I read that for every dollar spent on the IRS we get $3 back. This country is a joke.


Corporate welfare or middle class welfare?


Argentina’s 48% Stock Rout Second-Biggest in Past 70 Years (8/12/2019) ~ Investing

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Something something buy the dip


Whats a better US tracker then $ARGT? They took a 24%ish hit today.


As someone who doesn’t know the first thing about Argentina, can someone explain this to me? If the issue is rejecting austerity I can understand why bonds took a huge hit, but equities? Shouldn’t equities perform OK since they aren’t holding Argentinian currency as assets (is, their value will keep up with inflation)? Are people worried that companies will be nationalized?


There was a guy in /r/wallstreetbets/ that called this. Last week. Like, he even listed his short ETF positions. Must have made a fortune.


Note to people in here. This is only when adjusted for tracking this in US dollar denominated terms. Still insane however. The Argentina ETF was down almost 25% today.


Dow down more than 800 points, biggest one-day drop since December 4, 2018. (8/14/2019) ~ Stock Market

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Trump is really on the fed today— “CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE!” the president wrote. “We should easily be reaping big Rewards & Gains, but the Fed is holding us back. We will Win!” Trump also claimed “we are winning, big time” in his administration’s trade conflict with the world’s second-largest economy. “China is not our problem,” but rather “our problem is with the Fed” and its interest rate policy, he said.


Looking forward to the next could of months. Ever since I have been paying attention to the stock market, about a year, the whole weekend I'm just looking forward to monday.


My puts made some great money. My portfolio was still down quite a bit :l


What happened? I heard about the yield curve but that is a technical indicator. Is the move technically driven? I heard earnings season wasn't good.


Thank you stock market. Very cool!


Dow tanks 800 points in worst day of 2019 after bond market sends recession warning (8/14/2019) ~ Investing

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Dow 20,000 here we come 😉


Have they tried more tax cuts and stock buy backs? That'll generate consumer demand!


Yay the day after I decide to invest a bunch of money.


sToCkS aRe On sAlE gUyS


This month is making me feel pretty.


My employer is skimming my 401k – both my contribution and his match (8/13/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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Report it to the EBSA which is part of the DOL. you’ll be protected as a whistle blower.


It sounds like the company's existence/employment may be at risk for issues that are beyond your control. It's a warning sign if the company can't match a 401(k) contribution, it's a gigantic red light if they can't even administer the plan properly to put in YOUR contribution. Basically what that says to me is that they can't make payroll.


Wage theft is theft. Especially when it is stolen from future you.


Contact HR and stop all further contributions quietly. Do not talk to your boss about it anymore. Move your 401k over to an IRA immediately. Get your money away from them. Start looking for a new job. I would report the company and start the process of having them prosocuted. Problem is, in a lot of states you can’t sue your employer. So you’d need to leave. I would flip burgers before I’d work for a crook.


Employment lawyer here. In addition to the other advice in this thread, I’d say that you probably want to find a private employment lawyer. Sounds like the business is on the verge of collapse and trust me, you do not want to be the person trying to enforce a wage claim against a business in bankruptcy. You’ll be a low priority and likely recover nothing. The best option would be to move quickly, negotiate a resolution, and get out of there before shit hits the fan. You also should check with the IRS and your state department of labor to make sure that your wages are being correctly reported and your payroll taxes are being paid. You can request a copy of your tax transcript from the IRS that will have this info.


Stocks Slide as Bond Market Signals Rising Concern About Growth (8/14/2019) ~ Economics

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>Spread is way too much as other countries say THANK YOU to clueless Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve. Germany, and many others, are playing the game! CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE! We should easily be reaping big Rewards & Gains, but the Fed is holding us back. We will Win!


Why is rewards and gained capitalized?


Bond investors aren't any smarter than anyone else. The "signal" is meaningless.


Trump hammers ‘clueless Jay Powell’ and the Fed, rails against ‘crazy inverted yield curve’ (8/14/2019) ~ Investing

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> CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE! We should easily be reaping big Rewards & Gains, but the Fed is holding us back. Jesus Christ on a pogo stick, the President of the United States is making the average /r/investing Redditor looks like a Nobel Prize laureate in Economics.


>Jerome Powell >Clueless MOTHERFUCKER, YOU NOMINATED HIM. It is mindblowing to me that this assclown built a reputation for being the "ultimate boss" on TV, and yet can't even manage the basic premise of hiring accountability. You hired him. If you hired an idiot, *that's on you*.


My impression is he's scared.


Always somebody else's fault with this guy, but when stocks go up he's first in line to take credit.


>Spread is way too much as other countries say THANK YOU to clueless Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve. Germany, and many others, are playing the game! CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE! We should easily be reaping big Rewards & Gains, but the Fed is holding us back. We will Win! What a world we live in.. Also this has to make my top 10 favorite crazy trump tweets.


Danish bank launches world’s first negative interest rate mortgage (8/16/2019) ~ Finance

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Sooo, can I get my mortgage through them in California?


If you understand the difference between real and nominal interest rates there isn't much to see here. I will say the OAS (Option adjusted spread) on a -0.5% mortgage is very tiny. Just makes you wonder A) is this rate reserved for the highest credit quality borrowers and B) are there substantial upfront fees?


Danish law prohibits non Danish citizens to purchase property. Waivers can be granted upon application to the Ministry of Justice, however laws are tough and only 20% pass.


So how’s the rental market there and what kind of visa would an American need to buy property?


Finally, a bail out for the rest of us.


Argentine Peso Crashes 25% after Macri Primary Election Loss (8/12/2019) ~ Economics

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As an Argentinian guy once told me "Pasamos de cagada a cagada", which basically means something like "We go from one shit show to another" It is kind of a drag since there is a lot about Argentina to like.


Now 30.3%


Can any Argentinian explain how the hell is Kichner even an option?


I am not an economist but I'll try to explain what I understand of the situation. Basically the government lost control of our currency but they couldn't let it go out of hand in an election year. They started accumulating foreign currency to keep the value relatively low. They can do this because if you put your money here you get insane benefits and you can take it out whenever you want plus the loans the IMF gave us. We are basically in default so this is not sustainable but as long as Macri had a chance of winning he was going to keep doing this at least until the elections in October. That isn't going to happen now so people know we will eventually default (or at least not pay the full extent of our debt), the next government will have to do it and Macri doesn't have any reason not to now. So no one will give us anymore money because why the fuck would they when we are not going to pay? And people who had their money here are taking it out while they can. That plus people anticipating our currency going to shit and trying to get rid of it will cause this. Again I am not an economist so if someone can correct me or explain the situation better I will be thankful for it.


If the new presidential candidate is just Kirchner's puppet, this is not looking good for Argentina


GE Fraud (8/16/2019) ~ Finance

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Lots of people calling bullshit on the fraud allegations. The proper methodology for estimating long term care liabilities is highly debatable and the consolidated Baker-Hughes reporting is required by law! They may be in rough shape financially but fraud seems like a stretch to say the least. Today the market saw the 2nd wave of reactions on this report and the sock rebounded big time.


Large purchases by insiders. CEO bought 2 million dollars worth yesterday.


Until we take corporate crime seriously like Iceland did, it’s just gonna keep coming.


Greater Enron




Emergency Fund FTW (8/14/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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I love the fact that you framed your post in a positive manner. This ordeal can easily become a very negative post. Glad your insurance is involved and covering a good portion of the repairs. I’d also suggest that you reach out to the inspector’s insurance to file a claim for the portion that your insurance doesn’t cover.


and nothing beats being safe in your own home. Glad everything worked out OP!


Hey good job. Great emphasis on the importance of an emergency fund especially with a house. Personally I find keeping the emergency fund in an online savings for 2%+ is the way to go. You have the safety net and the interest to at least keep with inflation that way.


Thanks for the story. I'm really glad you had an emergency fund!


We are currently dealing with the hardwood flooring(and who knows what else) in our brand new built in 2017 home rotting. Insurance says its an "act of god" because its from rain water pooling in the backyard. We say its the builders fault because ours was one of the last built in the neighborhood and they graded our yard so that all of the water from the houses surrounding us drains into our yard and pools there(neighbors yard behind us sits maybe 2ft higher than ours and there are drains in the retaining wall into our yard, but no drains from our yard to the street). Insurance says we have to get at least 2 experts to say this could have been prevented by the builders properly grading and installing drainage in the yard and not something that would have happened either way, before they will even touch the issue. And of course this wasn't something we even knew was a risk, let alone knew it was a problem until we'd had a lot of rain over a period of time, and noticed that the floors looked a little strange.


YIELD CURVE INVERTS: Recession indicator flashes red for first time since 2005 (8/14/2019) ~ Stock Market

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Now that I follow stocks more for over a year, it’s crazy how these articles pop up numerous times a week. It’s as if it’s a race for the first source to “predict” a downfall


I thought it already invented few months ago?


1. Its not even inverted currently according to rates so it must've been inverted for only a brief period 2. Do you want a recession, because big all caps siren headlines are how you get a recession


I have the perfect conspiracy for a recession now. You know Jeffrey Epstein pedophile island and the global elites who wants to have orgies with 14yr old kids? Presidents, billionaires and royalties all took part in this fuckfest. How do you divert the attention of the world with this child rape issue before they are part of the lynching? A good hard recession will give the public something real to worry about. Its gotta be big and bad enough where this pedophile case is no longer in the spotlight long enough for them to bury the issue.


Articles saying 2005, 2007, 2008. Get it straight. Clickbait fear mongering.


Double check your amazon prime charges (8/12/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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If you weren't using the account, you should contact Amazon and ask them to refund the erroneous charges. My experience with Amazon customer service has been generally positive.


I recently noticed we were paying for prime video. I could swear I cancelled the subscription half a year ago, but couldn't find proof. Didn't get a proof this time either, but I now have screenshot if they restart the sub.


I got the same charge too. I only signed up for the free trial and then cancelled. For some reason, they attempted to sign me up for prime again. I cancelled and got my money refunded.


Did you ever buy a firetv stick as a gift for somebody? If you do this, they auto load your account onto it, and if that person watches any prime content it auto renews your subscription. I got very angry at amazon and accused them of stealing from me, turns out it was my uncle doing it on accident.


Amazon is fucking ruthless when it comes to automatic charges. I've had to call them on two separate occasions to refund me months worth of unauthorized Kindle and Prime Video subscriptions. I'm in the same boat as you, sharing an account, and I don't always notice when $14.99 comes off my card. Last time I spoke with customer service they told me that if the primary card on file declines for any reason, then any subscriptions or recurring transactions linked with the account can be automatically charged to any other card on file, without warning, even if it's in a different name with a different billing address.


GE CEO Larry Culp bought nearly $2 million worth of the company’s stock after fraud accusation (8/15/2019) ~ Investing

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Time to get out the popcorn > "GE will always take any allegation of financial misconduct seriously. But this is market manipulation – pure and simple," he said in a statement. "Mr. Markopolos's report contains false statements of fact and these claims could have been corrected if he had checked them with GE before publishing the report."


We need Ja Rule to weigh in on this


Let me know when the janitors start buying.


PR move.


To be fair if you were CEO you would be desperate to show confidence in the company regardless, tho perhaps especially, if the allegations are true.


Asia shares decline as trade war concerns dampen investor sentiment (8/12/2019) ~ Finance

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Umm, SSE composite is up 33 bps? CNBC needs to work on their auto-generated articles.


What stocks are on your radar for next week? (8/16/2019) ~ Stock Market

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I’m going heavy on TGT. Why? Walmart.


The red ones


ENPH - solar power!


The collapse of $BYND




The 2-10 U.K. yield curve inverted for the first time since 2008 (8/14/2019) ~ Investing

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This is what happens when you commit economic suscide.


I'm reading US on cnbc is this true?


One thing to note: while an inversion of the 2-10yr yield has an impressive predictive record in the US, its track record is not nearly as good internationally. This is not as strong a signal as it would be in the US, though the US also saw its yield curve invert.


Suckers. This is why I only invest in Beanie Babies.


Would it be a poor decide to start investing at this moment with a recession looming? I know it sounds like the obvious to not, but I’ve read that there is often a last push upwards before a recession kicks in. Otherwise I’ll continue to wait it out.


This is how recessions blind side people (8/15/2019) ~ Investing

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Basically how it works is everyone freaks out when it inverts, then forgets about it 3 weeks later and happily pushes the bull another 15% before everything goes crashing down.


Here's an alternate idea: Bond prices are up<yield down> because in other parts of the world yields are negative. Foreigners are buying US bonds creating this inversion.


The current bond market action is telling us that the EUROZONE is entering a recession. Virtually no-one appears to realize this.


Sometimes, I think that recessions are self-fulfilled prophecies. If enough people start screaming about them, then people batten down the hatches (cut spending, invest in less risky assets, etc.).


So what happens if it doesn’t stay inverted? Or what if the recession happens in 25 months?


Subprime Auto Loans Blow Up, Delinquencies at 2009 Level, Biggest 12-Month Surge Since 2010 (8/16/2019) ~ Economics

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I know I won't have too many agree with me, but I worry about this. Not the supposed student loan bubble, not the housing market, but the subprime auto loans. >What will this chart look like when the economy turns, and unemployment surges again, and people cannot make their car payments? Taking someone's house is a process. When we were buying, we had our eye on a house that was going through foreclosure. 18 months and that house is still in the "pre-forclosure" process. There all kinds of games you can play to stretch it out as long as possible. Miss a car payment? Bob's Repo will be there tomorrow. And if you didn't lose your job already, you will. It's this squeeze from the bottom that concerns me. Student loans and mortgage debt holders are generally middle income. But in many communities everyone needs a car, and the poor are at most risk of holding a subprime car loan. >Subprime lending is very profitable – until the loans blow up Good thing we learned our lesson from the last time. Er, never mind.


I record a lot of car purchases for clients Usually people flip cars fairly often and just tack on the prior debt, its weird seeing someone start a loan underwater &nbsp; I couldn't do that shit


I know this is anecdotal, but I lived in a relatively poor area and I always think about this statistic because the number of $40k+ SUVs driving around is insane, when I'm making six digits and barely able to save, let alone manage $700 car payments... People are buying SUVs like crazy right now, and even a cheap SUV will run you close to $30k. Idk where they get this money from.


In 2009-10, a lot of people started to park their cars on the quiet street beside my apartment. I only noticed cause one had a faulty rear hatch that made the alarm go off every night. Anyway I started noticing 5 0r 6 cars being parked there overnight and they were gone when I woke up. Found out by talking to the faulty rear hatch guy that he was parking it away from his house so it wouldn't get REPOed. I assumed the other ones were there for that too.


Captive lending is the worst. The car companies sell you the car *and* the loan. You are better off getting your loan through a bank first, and then shop for the car.


I’m 17 years old and I have about 4000$ in my savings from work. What’s the financially wise thing to do in my situation? (8/14/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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Dont tell your friends you have 4000 dollars.


The financially wise thing to do is live with your parents and keep saving for as long as possible.


Make sure you check and see if you qualify for the PELL GRANT


My advice assumes your parents are not contributing to your education costs: Put the $4k into a savings account and just keep contributing to it. Save as much as you can. Don't invest it - that will just count against you when it comes time to fill out the FAFSA and with the big college costs only 2 years away (after the 2 years at Community College) your gains in the market would not matter. If you keep it in a savings account, then you can simply withdraw it the day before you fill out and file the FAFSA, then re-deposit right after. Dumb that the Fed allows that but they do. Community college is cheap, so pay that as you go using the savings if necessary (better that you keep saving for the final 2 years, which will be much more expensive). Regardless....although it is popular right now to bash student loan debt and question the value of a college education, that bullshit mainly comes from people without degrees or outliers. The statistics don't lie - you will make much more over your lifetime with a 4 year degree, regardless of the major (hint: college is not a trade school), than you will without. So continue your education and get your bachelors and even if you come out with $50k in debt it will be worth it. And then, when you have kids, you'll want to open a 529 plan when they're born so that they're not posting on reddit when they're 17 having to worry about how to pay for college.


I would go to Italy and then continue to maintain your incredible savings habits coz you're already on the right track. I started to travel around your age and it's money well spent. Plus deferring travel until you're older is a totally different game. It costs way more especially if you have a family. I still love traveling, but I wish I did even more when I was young. Some of my favorite friends and romances were met abroad. Now I have a wife and I don't even let myself be open to that experience. My standards for comfort were also lower and I was way happier doing and spending less than I do now. I was way more open to strange and new experiences and now I pretty much know what I want and don't deviate too much. There's nothing like traveling when you're young. Investing is important and starting young gives you a crazy edge, but don't defer travel just to save more and more. Your financial future is important, but the reality is that you can't predict every financial hurdle or success. It's a marathon, but you're supposed to stop and smell the roses because you don't really know where the finish line is no matter how much you plan. Instead of 100% smart investing I like 80/20 or 90/10 rule. Live like you'll die tomorrow with only 10% of your time and money coz 90% you'll probably live. It would be a shame to go all in on the wise money moves at the expense of enjoying your life.


Reuters: Past-due student loans, credit card debt could weigh on U.S. growth (8/13/2019) ~ Investing

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A lot of people in my circle are living way beyond their means.


I wonder how many people are using Bernie Sanders talk of loan forgiveness as a reason to put off paying down the debt.


Debtors are getting some relief with the latest interest rate cut. There seems to be a debt problem in every sector of the economy: Government, corporate, student, mortage, car loan, credit card. All way up. I don't like to think where this probably ends.


Pay your shit


I mean the debt will certainly drain the spending power of them, but the profit/interest goes to the bank/financial institution or rich people. Isn’t that the same as trickle down economy, wheeee money is funnel to the rich to when spend it to create more ?


Bond markets are sending one big global recession warning (8/14/2019) ~ Economics

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Well, at least that will clear up some of the overcrowded tourist spots.


Consumer sentiment and investor sentiment are going to be very interesting come the August numbers.


We are goin to need a very stable genius to get us through this one.


But who cares. Trump created all of the jobs right? C’mon everyone, follow me down to the job store. Trump did it! All hail supreme leader and America’s forever President. Just don’t peek into your 401k.


China Says U.S. Violates Xi-Trump Consensus With New 10% Tariff (8/15/2019) ~ Investing

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Round 2 BEGIN! (☞゚ヮ゚)☞


So everyone gonna basically retaliate until someone's economy crashes hard, and then someone will give up for ahwile


Can’t wait for the Trump tweet when he wakes up


Regardless of your politics, you have to admit the tariffs/trade war are silly and will not accomplish anything. TPP was our way of getting better trade arrangements with China and we said no. There were 2 schools of thought back in pre-2016: play hardball with China to force them into better international trade arrangements or do nothing and hope everyone grows equally together. The first option manifested itself as TPP, which our diplomats and top trade bureaucrats spent years working toward with more than a dozen nations, only to have it become politically unsavory so no one in 2016 supported it. The second option was optimistic and was essentially "more of the same". We are now trudging down a third option where we try to strong-arm China by ourselves and a leader making social media posts bashing them at a time when they need to appear strong because of a budding rebellion in HK. Xi has no term limit now, while our whole federal administration is up for grabs next year. China knows they can call the shots on this deal. I fully expect huge concessions on the US side just so Trump can ink a deal and get a photo op.


Oh no, China is worried about someone not keeping their word


Greenspan says ‘there is no barrier’ to negative yields in the US (8/13/2019) ~ Investing

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> "Zero has no meaning, beside being a certain level," Greenspan told Bloomberg on the phone. It has enormous emotional meaning to people....


Subzero interest rates for Treasuries would be a difficult feat to accomplish when you consider the amount of Treasuries were going to issue for the foreseeable future. Think $100-$200 trillion off balance sheet liabilities and which party might end up taking office. If we actually do sink to negative, I won't even know what to think anymore.


So I'm still kind of new to negative yields. If this were to happen in America what are the implications to being able to save money? Will we have to keep it in a fucking mattress? Will we be forced to gamble on the stock market as whole while ignoring Bonds and CDs? Am I being stupid and completely misunderstanding the situation? All of these and more are possible!


We're in uncharted waters on how to make money in a negative interest rate world. I would think stocks would go up as demand for equities would rise - but that is not what is happening in Japan right now.


Go long safe-deposit boxes.


Open Discussion on why I think maxing all Retirement Accounts is not always the best option (8/15/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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You're leaving out a big parameter: income. If someone is making $100k or more, then they absolutely should be maxing their 401k and IRA and still be able to live quite a nice life, currently. If someone is making $35k, then obviously they're going to struggle maxing their retirement accounts, and trying to do so would not be right for many people. Generally, when I recommend someone "max" their retirement, it's because the info they've provided indicates they can. And consider that many (most?) people enter retirement and realize that they did not adequately save... I honestly believe it's better to save a little more than you need, rather than end up with too little.


your premise isn't so much about maxing retirement accounts, but rather saving for the future vs. spending discretionary funds on pleasures today. Everyone has different life goals, dreams & responsibilities. One financial plan doesn't fit everyone. If you're going to inherit a $3M income property from your 85yo grandmother you're in a different position than a single mom with 2 teenage kids prepping for college. Also career/job security plays a big role too. Someone who's a CPA for the IRS with a decent pension and seniority is in a different place than a graphic artist who does gig work and sees income streams that vary from year to year. The most important thing for anyone regardless of their situation is read, research & investigate your options. Just being informed and financially literate is half the battle. Then you can consult with financial planners or forums to prioritize your life goals and formulate a plan based on those. I always tell friends to ask themselves where they want to be 10 years from now? and what do they need to do to get there from here?


“Better learn balance. Balance is key. Balance good, karate good. Everything good. Balance bad, better pack up, go home. Understand?” “Lesson not just karate only. Lesson for whole life. Whole life have a balance. Everything be better.” -Mr. Miyagi I think what you are pitching sounds perfectly reasonable. My Grandpa said the same thing to me. He worked hard his whole life and retired at age 45. He is 70+ and when I was in my mid 20's he told me that if he could go back he would live more and work less and advised me not to be to frugal. I took that lesson and went to the other extreme and did not save any money. I am now in my early 30s and working hard to make up for not saving anything. I believe the best advise is to do both and not go to either extreme. &#x200B; Edit: My memory of when he retired might be wrong. I always new he retired yearly and when I was young 45 still sounded so old. But also they had lived very frugal when he retired becuase they were on a fixed income. I don't think he enjoyed retirement too much. I remember he had a garden and he played super nintendo a bunch but then he had to stop playing super nintendo because it was hurting his stomach.


One thing that always surprises me here at r/personalfinance in recommendations for young people is how everyone always talks about maxing out retirement savings but no one mentions saving for a down payment on a home. Many people here are likely age 20-35 and looking to purchase their first home soon. Is maxing out your 401k the best way to do that?


As a counterpoint, consider the freedom you get from aggressively funding a retirement account. Assuming 6% growth post-inflation, if I can save up $125k by the age of 30 I can stop contributing and have around $1MM by the age of 65. This can be achieved by maxing out retirement accounts (401k, Roth IRA) from the age 25 to 30, and then I'll never have to touch that account again. &#x200B; For me, that's a lot of mental stress alleviated and gives me a lot options. I can start my own business without worrying about failure putting me behind on retirement savings. I can fuck off and travel for years without having to worry about saving for my future because it's already taken care of. If I want to buy a house, I can cut retirement contributions without feeling like I'm falling behind. If I wanted to take a low stress, low paying part time job I don't have to worry about paying rent if I cut back on retirement savings. &#x200B; I'm not saying I'll stop contributing once I hit that number. However, quickly building a large enough nest egg that will grow without any additions is a top priority because it will give me so much more freedom.


Say I make exactly $6K in one year in earned income at a job that offers a 401K. Also say I put 100% of that into my 401K. Can I still put $6K into a Roth IRA (say, from savings?) (8/12/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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I don’t think so. If you make $6k gross and put 100% into your 401k then your W2 will say you earned $0 of federal taxable income. I believe that would mean you would not be able to put any money into your Roth IRA.


Only if you can make a Roth 401(k) contribution. The reason being that pre-tax 401(k) contributions reduce the amount shown on your Form W-2, Box 1 which is taken (among other things) to be your compensation for IRA purposes. But a post-tax, Roth contribution doesn't lower that number, and would allow you to contribute twice. Do note that you won't be able to put 100% of your compensation in the 401(k) because you still have to pay income tax withholding and FICA.


The real question should be why would you defer taxes on that $6k when your federal tax rate if you make $6k is 0%?


blakeh95 already got you the right answer to your question. >I am financially independent and want to leave my job and possibly not work for at least a year. However, if I leave now then I will miss out on the opportunity contributing to a Roth IRA in 2020 But this really got my attention. If you're ready and wanting to leave now/soon, getting an extra 6k to be invested tax-advantaged seems pretty insignificant in the grand scheme and not worth working half a year to get.


The smart play in a situation like that where you don't have a paycheck coming in is to start converting your existing 401k to a Roth IRA. You'll be in a really low tax bracket, maybe pay zero in taxes to convert.


Walmart shares jump 3% on earnings beat, raised outlook (8/15/2019) ~ Investing

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Wow, raising guidance despite so much uncertainty with tariffs? Takes guts and strong management execution...hats off to WMT


Walmart doesn't give a shit about your recessions


At least we can all still afford to shop at Walmart when the bottom falls out. Long WMT and MCD


Their online grocery ordering/pickup is killing it. Personally, I use the hell out of the service, and I rarely shopped there before because I hate going in the store.


Now up 6% premarket


Bought my first ever shares! (8/13/2019) ~ Stock Market

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Stop by wallstreetbets


What did you buy?


Yeah I had Ameritrade and then switched to robinhood. I like robinhood way better now!


Good luck! I did the same when I was 22. I did it to learn more than to earn. I ended up buying a project car with 50% of the earnings after 7 years of those first few stocks. Time is on your side!


Technically you won’t be a shareholder for a few more days, your trades need to settle still. Not to rain on your parade 🙂


GE shares tank more than 13% after Madoff whistleblower calls it a ‘bigger fraud than Enron’ (8/15/2019) ~ Economics

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He didn't take any comments from the company in researching all this? Is that normal? I know GE isn't exactly squeaky clean all the time, but this is a BIG claim. I want to see some independent review before I react to this.


>A website has been set up to disseminate the report,, where Markopolos calls it “a bigger fraud than Enron.” The financial investigator, who was probing GE for an unidentified hedge fund, writes that after more than a year of research he has discovered “an Enronesque business approach that has left GE on the verge of insolvency.” Anyone know exactly how much GE got in tax breaks last year? How much is the CEO making? 20+ mill a year?


I'm unsure how to feel about this given he works for a hedgefund that is likely shorting GE


makes me wonder how common this is


Well this headline reads like typical CNBC clickbait trash...


Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater: Capitalism needs reform, wealth inequality is a national emergency (8/11/2019) ~ Economics

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He speaks of reforming capitalism, what are some ideas / ways to do this?


Ray Dalio should set the example in combating the "emergency" and start giving everybody he sees $5 until he runs out of dough. Really though, he didn't say anything meaningful in that interview. Wealth equality is an "emergency," we're headed for "conflict," and somebody really should do something. Thanks Ray lol.


There will always be wealth inequality as long as there is effort inequality. Even if they managed to implement totalitarianism (socialism, communism), there would be wealth inequality. Plenty for the ruling class (planners), and scarcity for the masses.


Take the cronyism out of crony capitalism everything will work out. Too bad that'll never happen preemptively.


There will always be a need for manual labor until generalized robotics become available -- discussing income equality/wealth redistribution before that time is nonsense since as far as I can tell society is *designed* to create poor people so that dirty jobs will be filled. Say wealth could be redistributed so that everyone became millionaires? Would being a millionaire mean what it means today? Of course not: things would simply cost more.


In wake of Argentina’s market imploding, are there companies whose dip you would suggest buying? (8/12/2019) ~ Investing

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If you want to set your money on fire, this is a great opportunity


You should go to r/wallstreetbets to get the best impression on what they think about it, then do the opposite.


Can someone eli5 what is going on in argentina?


The worst is yet to come.


Don’t touch it. At all. If you didn’t know about what was about to happen before this morning, youll just be burning your money. Argentina is about to get seriously messed up and drag your money down with it


Explain like I’m 5: Yield Curve Inversion (8/14/2019) ~ Investing

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Usually when you go and try to get a CD from a bank, they offer you more interest for the longer you let them keep your money. BUT what if you got more interest for giving them your money for say 6 months versus 6 years? That’s inversion. Short term yields are greater than longterm yields.


Your basically picking the fruit today because you don’t think the tree is going to produce fruit tomorrow.?


Currently, you gain less yield for a 10 year bond vs a 2-year bond. Initially, this doesn't make much sense. Holding up your money for a longer time period should produce a higher yield. The only reason this is the case is that investors are so unconfident in the state of the economy in the next 2 years, they would rather keep their money safe and guaranteed for 10 years. It is unlikely the economy will still be in turmoil 10 years from now. Bond prices and yields go in opposite directions. The more expensive a bond is, the lower the yield. So lots of people are buying 10-year bonds and less are buying 2-year bonds.


The yield curve is a plot of the yield of treasury bonds vs duration. Normally the curve slopes upwards with longer term bonds having a higher yield than shorter term bonds. Sometimes the curve flattens and then inverts with shorter term bonds having a higher yield than longer term bonds. It indicates that the market thinks monetary policy is too tight and rates are expected to fall in the future. In the past, in the US at least, an inversion in the yield curve has usually preceded a recession with about half a year to two years lag. Often people look at the 2yr-10yr spread in yields which just inverted but the 3mo-10yr spread has already been inverted for a while.


Banks borrow money at the short term rates and lend at long term rates. If long term rates > short term rates, bank make profits and lend more money. (Good for economy) If long term rates < short term rates, banks have difficulty earning profits; therefore they lend less (bad for economy)


23 metro areas account for half of the US $19.5 trillion GDP (8/13/2019) ~ Economics

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Economic power on the coasts, political power in the middle


What percentage of the US population lives in those metro areas?


I'm going to throw this hypothesis out there: measured GDP is higher in more densely populated areas because more day-to-day transactions are recorded and monetized. E.g. an apartment owner is more likely to hire someone to help fix his sink than a homeowner in the country. Only one of those repairs goes into the GDP number.


Is this surprising? I would have believed this if you had said the top ten cities, even the top five...


I read a book long ago about overfishing. In the book it revealed the inaccuracies of oceanic surveys of fish stocks. They would survey population density of fish in a few areas and then do some multiplication on where they expect to find these fish. Of course the places they surveyed was simply where fish gathered and the eco system that supports these fish is much greater than they can possibly imagined. The same applies for money. Cities is the place where money and resources gather. The actual economic ecosystems that support these cities is much larger.


How much would you value a shorter commute? (8/14/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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As much as I hate commuting (but I suppose who doesn’t?), there’s no way an extra hour each day is worth a $30k pay cut. I’d rather take the higher paying job and look at moving.


If someone offered you 30k a year to drive a car for an hour, a days 5 days a week would you


My commute consists of a 2 minute walk across a city park, and I absolutely love it, but 30k/yr is too steep unless you are comparing jobs that are paying like $250k+. If you are chucking that 30k into retirement its a difference of like literally millions of dollars at retirement.


Try the longer commute during rush hour both ways. I had a 30 mile commute that was pure torture, and then I had a 65 mile commute that was smooth and painless. You should know what you're getting into.


30 minutes with little traffic is an easy commute in the grand scheme of things. If it was a long commute, sitting in traffic jams, etc. that would be different. Take the 30k, get your salary up there, then your next gig you are starting from a higher salary point negotiating wise.


What are some things one should spend money on when they get a raise? (8/15/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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Buy something you want. Seriously. Go buy something that isn't a wise purchase or won't get a return for you. Get a nice watch, upgrade your TV, buy a fancy bottle of whiskey, etc. It's ok to splurge and sometimes a nice splurge is ok to get out of the system to reward yourself for hard work. I'll probably get downvoted, because this sub is very focused on every purchase being prudent and making sense, but it's good to remember that you can live a little and not feel guilty, especially if all of your other ducks are in a row. Edit: annnnd I was wrong. Lots of upvotes. This is why I don't buy stocks and try to time the market. I'm very bad at predicting things!


>What are some things one should spend money on when they get a raise? Before anything else, increasing one's retirement contributions


If you're concerned about lifestyle creep, start by maxing out all of your tax-advantaged accounts. That will make it so that most of the extra money never shows up in your checking account. Beyond that, think about any goals you have for the next several years and how to invest for them. Then you can think about the luxuries. Personally, I spend less on things that convey status (luxury cars, designer clothing, etc.) and more on things that are well-made. The mattress is a good example. Good shoes are worth it too. Basically, I'll spend extra for value derived from things like comfort, quality, durability, and longevity. There's a million things out there like that, and you'll be able to think about them in those terms when you see them. Also, if you value life experiences, it's worth setting aside some money for those. Edit: words and stuff.


Open a Roth IRA and put $6000 in it.


The biggest priority when you get a pay increase is to not let your expenses rise with you income. Avoiding that mistake is the biggest priority.


NYSE: GE Down 11% due to Accusations of Fraud (8/16/2019) ~ Stock Market

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Insiders bought recently. Director recently bought 5,000 shares at $9.05 Chairman bought today 252,200 shares at $7.93 Hmmmmmmmmm. Bullish? or idiots?


hasnt ge as a company been falling apart for years now, anyways?


Robinhood gifted me one share of GE, I think I will let it ride.


How will Jagex respond?


I bought some puts at $8 3 days ago when I read an article saying that the CEO and other directors bought some shares totaling $3 million. I’m extremely new as far as investing in the market but I thought it was strange nonetheless. I read through the comment section and someone posted a link of an article that showed GE dip shortly after the CEO bought stock last time. So i figured what the hell its worth a shot. $37 an option at the time, woke up this morning to this story and was surprised. I have a question though since I’m extremely new. If i hold on to these contracts, expiration date is 1/17/20, and it dips down to say the $1-$2 range will that contract be hard to close out? Or should I get out sooner.


U.S. curve inverts for first time in 12 years; 30-year yield tumbles (8/14/2019) ~ Economics

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When China reduces the value of their currency relative to the dollar, it does so by *buying* dollars. As there is little benefit in keeping mere piles of cash, these purchases are *usually* invested in low risk US assets. This generally means treasuries. So this abrupt fall in the 30-year yield may simply be a consequence of the Chinese investment strategy in connection with their recent currency moves. This isn’t an ironclad case. I don’t have good data on what China has been buying the last few weeks, or how that disruption is being transmitted through the market. It’s simply worth noting that Chinese policy has introduced big buys on the US debt market *at the same time* the debt market did something strange.


12 years ago.... 2007. Interesting


Main yield curve inverts as 2-year yield tops 10-year rate, triggering recession warning (8/14/2019) ~ Investing

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Debating if I should also start a new post on the breaking news of inverted yield curve and how that has accurately predicted the recession within 18 to 24 months. 20 upvotes: yay 20 down votes: nay


I've said this here a ton, but it bears repeating here again. The 2-10 yield curve being the "main" one is simply a product of small sample size and statistical overfitting. Ie, it has a hit rate of 1-2 more successes than other curves over a period of 7 recessions. The federal reserve use the 10-3m yield curve, and what really matters the most, is where the curve as a whole is sitting and ***why*** it's a negative curve. The entire damn curve has been below the fed funds rate for a while. Honestly, nothing that significant has changed, but we of course are now going to get a ton of headlines about this because it's a talking point and the media LOVES the 2-10 yield curve.


It is no longer inverted, but I assume that doesn't matter in terms of a recession indicator, correct?


Can someone explain what control this except of investors putting more money in 2 or 10 loans? Can feds control this? By increasing spending and yeilds for 10 loans? I. E. Can they artificially fight this signal?


Hopes for profit of investors on scale of 10 years just dropped and that means that current prices of stocks which are hope of profit for other investors are going down as well. Pure logic.


Treasury is about to flood the market with debt to fund U.S.’s $1 trillion deficit — and that is a concern (8/16/2019) ~ Investing

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Why are Treasury yeilds falling? Hint because everyone wants to buy them


And based on the 10 and 30 year treasury yields, the market is saying "Hell yeah, go for it, and while you're at it, make it $2 trillion!"


So all this week we were freaking out about falling yields from rising bond prices. Yet now we are supposed to be concerned about more supply of bonds entering the market? Sorry but I am completely losing faith in the economic news cycle. I just keep seeing conflicting reasons to be afraid.


Perfect time for China to offload some of their us treasuries too.


can someone explain why anyone would ever purchase a negative yield?


The long-standing relationship between corporate debt and capital expenditures has broken down: Companies Use Borrowed Billions to Buy Back Stock, Not to Invest (8/11/2019) ~ Economics

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Why would you not restructure towards a higher debt to equity ratio when debt is so cheap? Is minimizing your cost of capital evil now?


Isn’t a company buying back stock basically investing in itself? They believe that their equity will yield higher returns than any other investment or the debt interest.


The compounding effect of capital ownership mixed with wealth transfer through inheritance guarantees extreme wealth inequality. So, a reduced accessibility to capital ownership isn't at all surprising, that's how the current system is supposed to play out on paper.


In case anyone was wondering, it should be pretty obvious where the bubble is this time around.


And what do the bought-out investors do with their new cash? Invest it.


Why yields are crashing further today and potentially the biggest market catalyst of the year or even decade…. (8/15/2019) ~ Investing

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If everything is as bad as you imply, then a 50bp cut will just be a temporary reprieve. Recall, the fed started cutting rates in 2007, that didn’t do squat for ensuing slaughter. IMO it’s really awful that we delivered those huge tax cuts when they weren’t at all needed. We shot one of our best shots years before it was needed, and now are collections are so barebones we truly can’t afford more tax cuts to act as a stimulus package. Also a shame that in the face of these global uncertainty, all we’ve done is pile more uncertainty on top of it all rather than just hanging an “open for business” sign on our front door. But really. I think we’re too fixated on the last recession. We hear the word and immediately our minds go to 2008. Recessions don’t have to be that bad. Even if europe enters a recession, there’s no reason we have to follow suit. Yes, we’d slow down, but we’re supposed to be an economic leader, not a follower.


the stock market will react positively or negatively regardless of the fed raising or lowering or keep interest rates steady - the stock market is psychological reactions and the fed shouldnt pander to the ridiculous stock market ECB has negative interest rates and cant do a lot when it comes to juicing up their economy - the america centralbank should show confidence and not change to encourage world investment in US stocks, US has a strong economy and good bond yields and is quite fine and shouldnt ease and get into the position of europe


Here's what is unsaid in all of this. Inflation is starting to creep up, in no small part due to effects of tariffs working their way through. Fed will be in a big time bind if inflation creeps up while yields are falling here and around the globe. Can't raise rates to fight inflation in a falling yield environment. Dollar will go buku.


You raise a lot of good points. One note on the blackout period. I think it's very likely that the blackout has a lot to do with how vocal Trump has been about interest rates. It could be moreso just a decision not to feed that fire and hopefully reduce the interest rate speculation. I could be wrong though.


> (remember they've hinted at last month's meeting that they don't expect any rate cuts for the rest of the year which is why the market tanked even after cutting rates). This is completely false. The market was on the upswing right after the rate cut announcement. It was Trump's mid-day tweet about increased tariffs on China that very day that tanked the markets.


Could a recession still happen if everyone is waiting for it? (8/12/2019) ~ Investing

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Recessions are not the stock market, they are the economy. A recession is defined by the decline of GDP. Recessions are not prevented because of people waiting for it, if anything they are brought on by people "waiting for it", i.e. a business that doesn't hire an additional employee that the might need/want otherwise because they are waiting for a recession and want to be able to weather it better has now reduced the natural employment growth, that is one less person making money and spending money who could have had that position, multiply this by millions of people and you can see how people getting conservative with their current assets and/or business strategies can lead to a recession. What you are probably referring to is a stock market crash or something akin to 2008, where an external bubble caused both a recession and crash of pretty epic proportions almost leading to a global financial meltdown. This is not common, but yes if everyone had saw the housing bubble and derivatives on housing/insurance etc as what they were, a major systemic threat, then there wouldn't have been trillions of dollars in it and major companies like Lehman Brothers wouldn't have put their neck into the guillotine. So in that sense, a bit, everyone waiting for a major catastrophe would make it less likely to occur. Everyone waiting for a recession (as a part of the normal business cycle) would make it more likely.


As pointed out the definition of a recession is 2 quarters of negative GDP growth. The stock market moves before the recession happens because it can be forecasted with leading economic data, that’s why people are calling it now. If you start shorting the market when the news comes out that we are in a recession, you are literally the last person to the party.


Yeah, a recession isn't just a market crash, it comes with businesses losing revenue and thus a reduction in available jobs.


During a bubble, when growth is sky high, there is more spending on credit than on cash generated from productivity. This must at some point lead to a time when more money is spent on reducing debt than on purchases. Since much of that money will come from selling assets that were likely bought at higher price, it can depress the market at scale, and lead to a constant decrease in growth as the economy corrects for earlier inflationary spending. Ray Dalio has an excellent introductory video on this process, if you Google for “dalio economic machine”.


I think the baby boomer investors are in the market still because: 1. Interest rates on non-risky investments are bad 2. The market has treated them very well over the last 10 years and they don’t want the party to end I don’t believe these folks have any intention of riding the market to the bottom and losing their gains from the last 11 years. Once cracks start to show in the economy and it becomes clear to these rich baby boomers that the party is over I could see a dramatic sell off being triggered


Germany Is Heading Toward Recession, New Data Indicates (8/14/2019) ~ Economics

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Its interesting—today I have read three separate articles that say three major world economies are heading towards recession. We just got the news that the fourth wave tariff was delayed until December 14th. I thought the announcement would bring more life into the market, at least short-term.


The current US administration seems ill equipped to handle a US recession let alone multiple super powers experiencing recession at the same time.


i'm not sure i'd categorize it as an embarrassment like this paper says considering Germany has floating a the lot of debt laden dog economies in the Eurozone and masking the fact that they cannot afford the lifestyle's being promised. I'm more surprised its lasted so long.


This is bad. When you have a recession combined with millions of jobless migrants, you have a recipe for political instability.


WeWork, which rebranded to the We Company, is widely expected to go public as soon as September. WeWork was recently valued at $47 billion. The company reported revenues of $1.54 billion and a net loss of more than $900 million for the first six months of 2019. (8/14/2019) ~ Investing

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They're dumping all these garbage IPO's on retail in a bid to get as much money as possible before the recession hits.


A real estate company with the valuation of a software company, what could go wrong.


It won't hold up in this recession. Short it till bankruptcy


Dumb idea. Libraries rent rooms for free.


These are the kind of bullshit IPO's you see at the top of every market.


Trump’s Push to Bring Back Jobs to U.S. Shows Limited Results (8/13/2019) ~ Economics

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Why should corporations pay somebody a decent wage when they can use a robot or child labor, neither will complain about sleep, food, or bathroom breaks. And if they do, you can just dump them in the river


I'm not sure what peoples expectations are but I don't think these efforts will ever contend with the ever increasing capabilities of automation. Even if he repatriated all the jobs, it would never return to the height of American manufacturing in peoples nostalgia. I recently visited a chemical plant that had 0 onsite personnel. All the engineers were college educated and sitting in a room 2 miles down the road. Surely if you're repatriating production, then you might as well continue to build plants like these, or at least have them on your road map. The days of single income with a GED being able to afford a home and comfortable retirement is truly over.


I think you guys are stupid, our great tariffs been so great for America and made us billions, that we had to suspend them to save Christmas


That’s because we can’t compete with machines.


this sub turned into 24/7 trump bashing.


Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway raises Amazon stake by 11%, now worth $947 million (8/14/2019) ~ Investing

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Quote value investor unquote.


To be fair, Warren isn't the one making these Amazon purchases.


Don't get too excited. This not-quite-one-billion dollar investment is a tiny drop in the bucket for Berkshire and was undoubtedly not made by Buffett himself. This is one of his underlings investing what amounts to the company's spare change.


The lesson here for newbies is that is doesn't matter where a stock has been, it matters where it is going.


Is it significant? Seems small both got Berkshire and Amazon.


CEO compensation has grown 940% since 1978 Typical worker compensation has risen only 12% during that time (8/14/2019) ~ Economics

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>Top 350 CEOs' compensation has grown 940% since 1978. FTFY. The top 350 software engineers have seen much higher than 940% wage growth since 1978. The top 350 atheletes are paid significantly more than the top 350 CEOs. Why did the EPI need to cherrypick their data so egregiously? Also, this topic was already posted earlier today. Happy to more attempts to spread misleading propaganda. Edit: oh no, it's the spam bot who posts propaganda to 100s of subs. Yikes!


The CEO of Walmart made 22.8 million in 2017. Walmart employs 2.1 million people. If we were to equally distribute his pay across all those employees they’d make an additional 10-11 dollars annually. What’s the actual point of these wealth envy posts?


Basic economics says that in a competitive market a worker should be paid his or her marginal product. In general, CEOs with extremely high pay are in charge of extremely large firms so that their actions have very large effects, i.e. large potential marginal product.


How do I become a ceo? That’s the real question.


If CEOs are overpayed, why aren't shareholders having a cow


Cool graphic for the yield curve @ nytimes (8/15/2019) ~ Investing

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Any links past the walled garden?


Yield curve inverts because short term risk is greater than long term risk. So it makes sense that short term yields spike when short term risk spikes.


How to spot a recession (8/14/2019) ~ Economics

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TL;DR - Look out your window.


TL;DR: If the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate hits 4.1%, a recession is starting.


Can we just go back to normal. I am getting sick of these nationalists making the same historical mistakes that screw us every single time. Fear of culture change > economic prosperity and peace it seems for them.


It’s disheartening that The Economist can’t align an X-axis label. Did I get what I was supposed to from this?


TLDR: The Sahm Rule


My credit is so bad I couldn’t get a secured CC (8/11/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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I was there...about 9 years ago...I was still married to my gambling wife. Car blew up..desperately needed something, and was turned down by tote the note lots even. Finally scraped up 1000, and Drive time (a chain of tote the notes) got me into score was like 390 or something. Got divorced, and today my score is 795, which I know cause I just refinanced the house. One day at a time is right. You gotta be cheap, and maybe ruthless, if family is an issue.


OP, check out Experian Boost. It helps you build your credit score by giving you credit when you pay utility and phone payments on time. Haven't used it myself, but heard of it on a financial podcast.


LOL what... If you're covering the entire balance up front then what the hell are they worried about...


Hey, don’t feel bad. I can’t get a secured credit card with a 793 credit score with transunion and equifax. I have no negative reports or past due payments. 20 years into a 30 year into my mortage, not 1 late payment. Was able to finance a car a few years ago, but it took them 7 tries to banks before one would take a chance on me. Thanks Chase Bank! The only thing on my history is filing for bankruptcy (debt repayment) in 2001 due to medical. If you file for any bankruptcy, it will follow you for life apparently. When I filed for bankruptcy in 2001, 2 credit cards were canceled. Oddly my sears credit card was still on my credit report and showed canceled in 2001. It was finally removed 6 months ago and my equifax score took a 50 point dive from 821, but has slowly gone up since. $50k in my bank account and still can’t get a credit card! My history shows 100% employment for 5+ years. OP, if you can’t get a secured credit card, think about getting a prepaid credit card for emergencies and don’t touch it unless it’s an emergency.


If you’re getting into a budget and need to lose some weight or start working out, parlaying a budget with healthy lifestyle is the way to go. One common denominator that immediately stuck out to me when getting my finances together and getting healthy was “discipline.” Your budget will include more attention to what groceries you buy - so make healthy affordable choices. And then your budget probably significantly cuts down on fast food and eating out in general. Financial health and your health really can go hand and hand. Wasn’t directed at your OP, just putting it out there.


12.6B dollars in made-up cash holdings, Chinese traditional medicine company Kangmei Pharma gets slap on the wrist. (8/16/2019) ~ Investing

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The harsh reality is you have to assume every Chinese company is cooking the books until proven otherwise.


Not even scratching the surface, there's a movie called China Hustle that shows how unbelievably sketchy Chinese IPOs are.


This is to be expected. Even the auditing firms are corrupt over there. Don't touch it with a 10 foot pole.

Throwawayacct449393 for best China DD


U.S. Mortgage Debt Hits Record… (8/14/2019) ~ Economics

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US NGDP in 2008: ~$14.5 trillion US GDP in 2018: ~$20.5 trillion In a healthy economy, absolute debt magnitudes should *always* be setting records, as debts grow in line with the wider economy's capacity to bear them.


Inflation adjusted would be what?


On the radio they had some big shot analyst on talking about this. And how he isn't worried about the level of debt because the number of defaults is still very low. Like wtf, you need to worry before the defaults start happening en-mass or you are already screwed. Another interesting metric mentioned was that almost 45% of newly written mortgages were refinances. Which is much higher then "normal".


I like how this is presented as a positive. Everyone relying so heavily on debt seems healthy for banks, but unhealthy everywhere else.


Lol do you work for a click bait company?


What are your favorite IOS apps for push notifications throughout the day? (8/11/2019) ~ Stock Market

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Yahoo Finance app is pretty good. Portfolio of stock lists are linked to your yahoo account. Web and app interfaces.




Robinhood's Notifications are simple and good enough for me!


I like webull. You set alerts for certain price targets, rising fast/dropping fast, percentage movements. And they come in pretty quickly as well. Plus free app. And you can get a free stock with a referral link.




Overstock Sell-Off Reaches 36% After CEO’s ‘Deep State’ Comment (8/14/2019) ~ Investing

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Easily the most bizarre CEO statement I've ever heard. How anyone can read this story and think, "I'll invest in Overstock" is beyond me. How anyone invested in Overstock with all the crypto pumping and dumping can read that and go, "I think I'll stay in this stock" I have no idea.


I swear I am the curse. I bought overstock right before this comment came out. Also bought Boeing the day before the Ethiopian air crash. Jumped into market in December right before the correction. Also just upped my spy investment 2x on Monday. Basically I am in the red 🙁


Not the first time he's said crazy shit: > In a conference call with analysts in August 2005, Byrne said that "there's been a plan since we were in our teens to destroy our stock, drive it down to $6–$10 ... and even a plan for how the company would then get whacked up." He said that the conspirators were part of a "Miscreants Ball," headed by a "Sith Lord," who he refused to identify but said "he's one of the master criminals from the 1980s." > ...During the session, Byrne admitted to making up stories about being gay and a coke-head in the hopes of uncovering a mysterious group short-sellers led by a “Sith Lord.” These individuals allegedly engineered an intricate conspiracy to cripple Overstock. Part of the conspiracy included tapping Byrne’s phone calls and apparently some kind of spy ring. He was also sued for $1.2 mil by a rival businessman after he accused him of working with Osama bin laden. This dude is just crazy


Overstock is the biggest meme of a company I have ever seen. Seriously not surprised he said this. His Crypto craze and this is just the entrance of the rabbit hole.


Byrne has a long history of saying and doing kooky things, like his Quixotic feud against Wall St., surreptitiously holding up a note during an interview, etc. However, what's the scandal here? He claims to have been involved in some way in the 2016 election and subsequent investigations, which isn't really that implausible, he has articulated what are basically some conspiracy theories about it, and has released a brief statement about it in response to some obscure blog which he apparently interviewed with. He's a little weird and this is at best a distraction from running his business but what's the big deal?


Visualization of the daily treasury yield curve since 2006 (8/16/2019) ~ Economics

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The sad thing about this is that 10 years ago, bonds across the entire duration yielded around 5%. Who wants to bet that we won't see that again in the next 20 years?


If you have liquid capital right now, how do you make money?




Brownian Motion in Financial Markets (8/14/2019) ~ Finance

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I don't believe in Efficient Markets because knowledge is always asymmetrical. There's always someone you can pass the buck to, or someone with an authority who can abuse it. What are the implications of banks 'rating' certain stocks as buys or sells? This does nothing to the intrinsic value yet adds juice to the stock.


Asset prices switches between brownian motion and levy flight. The market is a discovery system, it moves the same way animals do when searching for food.


Informative, thanks 👍


I am 19 and trying to get into the stock market, but I have no clue on what y'all are saying here. Wish me luck on reading up on stuff!


I found - in my MBA Master's thesis - that the weak-form Efficient Markets Hypothesis applies to the Indian stock market, specifically the S&P CNX Nifty index. Also, I played a chaos game with the Index values & generated a Sierpinski Gasket!


Condo association wants to pay me to use my internet/electricity for camera system. (8/16/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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Have them request this in writing, then charge them a $250 administrative fee for filing the request.


I wouldn't mind the $40/mo for my electricity, but I'm not letting a condo association...or anyone else...on my internet connection. If their camera is on your network, then they are going to want access to that network to manage that camera, etc. Not happening.


I wouldn't let anyone use an internet connection that's in my name for any amount of money. Let's say they setup a camera, but then someone else somehow uses that connection for something else that's undesirable. That traces back to you first, which could go poorly if law enforcement gets involved. It's a common area expense, let the association run their own lines. That way they can maintain it without involving you. You don't want to be responsible for keeping that connection open and guaranteeing that it's working.


It seems strange that they would want to run that through an individual’s line. Shouldn’t they want that to be separate? Seems fishy to me though I don’t have concrete reasons for being suspicious


Charge them $100?


Recession Fears Spike to 2011 High as Risk of Bubbles Spreads (8/13/2019) ~ Economics

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"U.S. equities are the most preferred region over next 12 months despite 78% saying region is overvalued; combination is the 2nd most extreme on record" Because as bad as the conditions in the US are, somehow the rest of the world is worse.


Article: says we are going down Next day: markets go up. Author: lmao


Gee, it couldn't possibly be due to the countless recession articles. Self fulfilling prophecy.


>Half of surveyed investors say corporates are excessively leveraged, a new record Leverage, like Jeffery Epstein did with Bear Stearns, is a good thing, right?


We are 70 % over valued and have been for years.


Founder’s grip on WeWork may be hard for investors to stomach (8/16/2019) ~ Finance

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Back in the 60s charismatic sociopaths would just start polygamist cults, not boring, transparently fraudulent companies. How times change.


These guys could have mastered cold fusion and I'd be skeptical. Nuemann has cashed out $700M+ already... From a company that has never generated a profit. He hasn't just gotten rich, he's gotten mind boggingly rich, from a young company that isn't doing anything particularly new. I don't see how the average investor could think that Neumann's incentives are remotely close to aligned with theirs.


This initial IPO will come out to mixed reviews, but a ton of press. The banks will tout it as a great buy because they’ve already lent WeWork a ton of debt and have skin in the game. The economy will slow, the Saudis will demand SoftBank to stop fueling this WW growth, and once the push for growth stops will force them to be profitable. That is when the actual business model is tested. WW has high upfront costs to lease and fitout centers as they stabilize. Once stabilized, these centers will make money. Servcorp, Regis, etc. all make money with this model, but these companies actually have cash flow. WW’s fear is to have a valuation actually based on their earnings, and not “selling the dream” of upside. This is standard end of cycle activity that we all look back at and laugh. In this case, everyone knows it’s crap, but the banks want to push it through before the music stops. What no one has been able to answer is why is this a tech stock? Can these companies really just self identify as a tech company because they want to be valued as one? WW is a serviced office company master leasing from LL’s and subleasing to individual tenants. Nothing more. So where does the tech come in?


>Investors in the upcoming initial public offering of WeWork’s parent, The We Company, are being asked to lower their standards for corporate governance beyond what other technology startups have demanded, securities law experts said on Wednesday. >Adam Neumann, the company’s CEO and co-founder, will control the company through his ownership of shares with high voting power, a common structure among newly listed Silicon Valley unicorns, including ride-sharing startup Lyft Inc (LYFT.O), Snapchat owner Snap Inc (SNAP.N) and social media giant Facebook Inc (FB.O). >The We Company will take a financial hit for this decision, as the S&P 500 and some other major indices exclude companies with dual-class shares. On the other hand, many investors have overcome their concerns about founders retaining a tight grip on fast-growing startups, because of fear of missing out on potentially lucrative returns. >“WeWork is pushing the outer bounds of what’s acceptable for a public company,” said Glenn Davis, research director at the Council of Institutional Investors, an investor advocacy group. “The IPO filing indicates that the objective is to preserve incumbent control indefinitely.” >We Company co-founder Rebekah Neumann, Adam Neumann’s wife who is the company’s chief brand and impact officer, will pick his successor if he dies or is permanently disabled in the 10 years following the IPO, alongside two company board members. She will get to pick those board members if two people currently on the board, Bruce Dunlevie and Steven Langman, step down. >The set-up is odd, according to Charles Elson, director of the corporate governance center at the University of Delaware. >The couple is also incentivized to donate $1 billion to charities over the next decade to keep their control of the company at current levels. Neumann will retain his high vote shares if he hits the target, if not, the number of votes per share will decrease, according to the IPO filing. While he would still likely control the company, his grip could loosen if the voting power of his shares becomes diluted. >Neumann has entered into several transactions with the We Company over the years, making the company a tenant in some of his properties and charging it rent. He has also secured a $500 million credit line from banks using company stock as collateral.


Anyone investing in this deserves to lose lots of money