I bought a 2016 Nissan Rogue and wrecked it. I hadn’t switched my insurance yet. I was at fault in the wreck…so it will be paid out of pocket. The towing company told me that it’s totaled….but I’m taking it for an estimate tomorrow. I owe 23,000 on don’t know what to do. (12/19/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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Due to the stream of rule-breaking comments the post was receiving, especially personal attacks, the moderation team has locked the post from future comments. This post broke no rules and received a number of helpful and on-topic responses initially, but it unfortunately became the target of many low-quality comments.


How was the ownership written? You dad's insurance may cover with in the grace period, which varies from state to state and company to company. I highly recommend like most every one else is saying, you probably want a lawyer for this.


You’re also on the hook for the damage to the other car. They’ll have uninsured motorist coverage but their insurance can still come after you. In the future, your old insurance would have covered you in the new car for a few days until you notified them of the swap. Ordinarily you don’t cancel the old insurance until new insurance is in place.


You need to buy a $4k Toyota and pay off the one you just wrecked. Never drive without insurance.


Tell your dad immediately. This sounds very strange, I've never been able to drive a car off a lot until I was able to prove it was properly insured.


Scam Alert: Interesting scam I pretty well fell for (12/18/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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One of our managers fell for this last year. Cost him $500. He thought he got an email from our CEO. The scam email came through our "everyone" account. I laughed about it, but found out a week later that manager fell for it. Out of about 800 employees only one got tricked. I guess it just takes one and that's why these scams keep happening. The tell tale signs were all in the email. It was poorly written, seemed urgent, wasn't sent from one of our company email addresses. If anyone gets an email that seems out of the ordinary please please do yourself a favor and run through the bs test. Edit: Let me answer some of the points that some people pointed out below. 1. We have 2 mandatory tests the entire company must complete every year for IT security and email security. 2. Our company sends our reminders regarding phishing emails probably every quarter. If we are not sure about an email we are asked to contact our IT security team. 3. Our IT security team sends out fake tester emails to see who gets tricked and to raise awareness. 4. The manager was male around late 40's. So it can happen to old or young, male or female.


I work in IT and you wouldn't believe how many people fall for this every day.


With many email servers, it can be confusing. They allow mail to come in with a return address of from outside. So it looks like internal email. Our shop modified the mail transfer agent to add [External] to the subject line of any email coming through the gateway. That helps alert you into not an internal email. We’ve also had to do the same to the phones to keep people from spoofing internal numbers that would show up with the right name on the caller I’d.


You didn't spend $1,200 of your own money because of an email, did you? So those gift cards went on a company credit card, right? "Uh, boss, I accidentally bought $1,200 worth of gift cards, but it's a scam that I caught just in time. So, uh, now that I have the gift cards, should we just give them out to everyone?" Sounds like a reverse scam to me... 😉


I wonder if this is what scam was sent to me. I received an email from the president of the company. We have over 4000 employees, and aside from annual meetings, I have absolutely zero contact with him. The email said something like, please respond to this email, I have something private to talk to you about. It was written with such poor grammar that all I could do was laugh. Then I looked at the email again, and the name of the sender was correct, but it was some bogus Gmail.


I just bought a used car for the first time. Here is what I learned. (12/16/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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Added bonus: if you have a bank or credit union you like, go get a pre-approved loan with them, and bring the pre-approval letter with you so the dealer shuts up about dealer financing. Now, the dealer might drop the price of the car if you finance through them, and sometimes it's a good deal (run the numbers though - see how much you lose in the higher interest rate). You can choose to use dealer financing if you want to, but having the pre-approval gives you options and lets you know the "true price" of the car.


> A dealer that is not willing to give a quote is honestly not worth the hassle. This is 100%. I e-mailed a few about internet prices confirming whether they included rebates I didn't qualify for, etc. Also asked for tax, tag, title and any fees they were going to add on (document fees, prep fees, etc). I immediately removed about 3 dealers because they weren't willing to do that. 3 or 4 of them were willing to do that so I worked with those and ultimately bought from one of those dealers. The car buying process at a dealership is frustrating but you can easily avoid the bad ones over e-mail.


The only point I dont agree with fully is the 2 year loan part. You can often get the same rate and the same financing fee for a 4 year loan as you can for a 2 year in my experience, and then your monthly payment is lower in case you hit an emergency during the loan, and they dont front load the financing schedule as hard because they figure they have more time, so if you pay it off like it's a 2 year loan anyway you'll pay a little less interest. So you can usually have a little more cushion for free.


>If you can’t pay off the loan in 2 years, you cannot afford the loan. that's a bit... extreme. and I'm even compensating for PF's extremely weird perversion against any kind of debt. now I'm not suggesting that someone get a big fat 8 year loan or whatever, but 2 years is *very* short. entirely capable and affordable used cars can have longer loans than that with low enough interest and monthly payments that anybody can stomach it.


If the average American could pay their car off in two years, they wouldn't need the loan in the first place. Guy bought ONE used car and thinks he's an expert now.


Zelle used to send money between 2 of my accounts. The account flagged was flagged as fraudulent, transactions disputed, and they’ve kept my money. (12/20/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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So let me get this straight -- you are the only owner of both of these accounts? If that's the case, I would go into the bank that claims the transaction was disputed and I wouldn't leave until this is resolved since you clearly did not dispute it. I would speak with someone in management and explain to them that you used Zelle to transfer funds between two accounts that you own and you are being told the transaction was disputed. This needs to be resolved by the bank and only the bank.


Yeah the bank that flagged the money needs to explain how they came to that conclusion. They then need to reimburse the money to you or have zelle release the funds.


I used to design corporate policies for banks. HERES HOW YOU FIX IT. Walk into the bank, explain the situation and ask to speak to the manager. He’ll give you a runaround, call this number, call that number. Remain calm and civil, but firm. Explain to him that if you don’t leave with a resolution, you will be filing a complaint with the OCC, naming him specifically. this is when he’ll think to himself “oh shit, I really don’t want to have to deal with all that.” See if he is able to come up with a better solution after that - he probably won’t be able to resolve the situation instantly (and he shouldn’t be able to, or else a scammer could walk in and pull the same shit), but the motivation is now there. If they haven’t helped you sufficiently, google OCC (office of the comptroller of the currency) and file a complaint. Also google “(your banks name) office of the president” send an email to the address you find, referencing the # of your now submitted OCC complaint. Sit back and wait 24-72 hours to receive a call from the most helpful customer service rep you have or ever will talk to in your entire life. Seriously. The folks that handle these kinds of complaints are fucking ninjas, college degrees in psych or something similar, and really sharp people.


I had something similar to this happen when I sent a Zelle payment to my girlfriend that never deposited in her account, Chase to Bank of America. ​ No one would play ball. Filed a CFPB complaint and the issue still did not resolve as they just pointed to some clause in the Terms of Service for Zelle. ​ Ended up having to get on the phone with Chase, tell everyone they transferred me to that I was about to file a lawsuit in small claims, until I got to some "executive Resolutions" department. ​ I did have to end up filing the suit. As soon as I did they immediately caved to my demands plus additional for my time and filing fees and I had the case dismissed. ​ Unfortunately, this may also be the way you need to go.


I work as a supervisor at a bank in digital support and we call Zelle. Call Zelle at the number listed in Google but when the automated system asks if you use Zelle through your bank, say no. Zelle has a stand alone app and if you say no, the ivr will take you to a Zelle Rep. Good luck!


I desperately need to help my 50 year old dad find another job. He currently works in manual labour and his body can’t handle it anymore. (12/21/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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Maybe he could look for maintenance jobs at a local nursing home? I think they do general stuff, fix the basics, plus he'd probably enjoy being around the residents. Good luck to him, I hope he finds something soon! And you're so sweet to reach out for ideas, he's a lucky dad.


Have him look into working the counter at a local supply house. (Electrical, hardware, HVAC) His industry knowledge will get his foot in the door, and even though it’s a “customer service” job, the customers are all blue collar folks, and are probably people he may already know! I regularly work at these types of businesses and a LOT of the employees are guys just like your dad.


This almost exactly matches my father-in-law, and he transitioned to a maintenance person for the government. Got a job working for the National Park Service. There is still SOME labor, but not the full days as a general contractor type. Decent pay, way more laid back. Good benefits. I bet he would like it. Head over to and look for government positions that match his skillset in your area. If you find something you think would be promising, it would help to find a federal employee to help with the application process - it can be a pain.


“Engineer” at a hotel. Usually around 14-22 an hour, fixing ovens to punting bathrooms. Maybe spend 6 weeks changing every vanity light bulb. Cush job (sometimes) with decent pay and benefits. It usually has overreaching hr that will bend over backwards to not fire people(depending on company, recommend Marriott, ac hotels, Omni)


there's an entire side of the construction industry where it's all paper work and not jack hammering you should be looking into. he has 20 plus years of experience and there is several jobs that are not hard labor in the field of construction he can use that experience to do. i personally can tell you that anything out there requires a secondary degree.. i lost a great desk job because the owner of the company sold out and despite the fact i ran the department myself, they let me go because i had no college degree of any kind.


Fraudulent Barclays account opened in my name to the tune of 17 grand. (12/17/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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How did a scam number get put on credit karma associated with an account? Isn't credit karma supposed to be legit? How could a scammer get the real Barclays number replaced with their own? This is a new kind of scam to me.


You should call barclays directly and lock down your credit.


Personal banker for Barclays here. I’d strongly recommend coming into branch to have a chat with one of us about the account so we can find out exactly how much information on the account is genuinely yours and how much was made up for the sale of opening a fraudulent account. We will log the whole thing with the help of our fraud team in branch and give you advice accordingly to what they have of yours that’s correct. We can also log it in a way which prevents the fraudster opening future accounts with us and with other high street banks in your name and details.


Yes, you should be filing a police report as well. That will help getting this fully removed from your credit.


I don’t understand. You called Barclays but the number you called is a number used to call people to ask for financial information? What?


China grants immunity to corporate executives to boost the economy – Executives suspected of fraud or assault will not be prosecuted (12/15/2019) ~ Economics

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Solid paywall but if I may comment on just the title...this is not how you advance economic activity. Fraud and uncertainty are drags on an economic system, not the other way around. If you look around the world one of the most reliable predictors of economic success is robust enforcement of laws and contracts.


> Chinese prosecutors are dropping criminal charges against business owners in a desperate effort to rescue the country’s ailing private sector. > The decision to offer private sector executives immunity from punishment for criminal activities, including assault, hints at the extent to which Beijing is prepared to go to help companies grappling with one of the country’s worst debt crises. > In the past decade, there have been a record number of bond defaults while economic growth fell to a 30-year low in the third quarter of this year. > Chinese prosecutors have abandoned 8,565 cases while 10,973 lawbreaking private company workers, mostly business owners, have been spared jail in the first nine months of this year, according to the Supreme People’s Procuratorate, a government agency responsible for investigating and prosecuting crimes. That is a year-on-year rise of 42 per cent and 24 per cent respectively. > A variety of cases, ranging from causing personal injury to invoice fraud, have been dropped despite evidence that the suspects violated the law. > “We should refrain from making arrests or prosecutions or giving harsh sentences whenever possible, because arresting or prosecuting business owners will immediately cause their firms to go under and dozens or hundreds of workers to lose their jobs,” said Zhang Jun, procurator-general of the Supreme People’s Procuratorate, in a televised speech last month. > Some officials went even further. “Simply following the letters of the law will lead to a misunderstanding of the spirit of lawmaking” and will not incorporate “party and national policy into law enforcement”, said Jia Yu, procurator-general of Zhejiang Province in an interview with local media this week. > The growing use of immunity, however, has raised worries that private companies have been given the green light to win business contracts illegally. > Margaret Lewis, a law professor at Seton Hall University in New Jersey, said the Chinese government was “putting the economy above the precise and strict implementation of the law”. > “It is giving a message to companies that you are welcome to be a little bit more aggressive and perhaps do things that are technically violating the law.” > China’s private businesses face more legal risks than state-owned or foreign companies. A study by Beijing Normal University this year showed that between 2014 and 2018, eight out of nine convicted corporate executives worked for private businesses. > Their plight became particularly worrying this year with private companies, the main employers and taxpayers in China, struggling with a surge in defaults. > A record 4.9 per cent of China’s private bond issuers reneged on payments in the first 11 months of this year, an increase from 0.6 per cent in 2014, according to Fitch Ratings. > Yang Hehong, owner of a rye grass seed company in the eastern city of Yancheng, is one executive who benefited from more lenient enforcement. Last year, prosecutors decided not to pursue a charge against him for falsifying documents to win a Rmb3.9m ($555,000) government subsidy. > The subsidy has helped Mr Yang’s company flourish and this year he expects to corner four-fifths of the national market. > “I almost collapsed when the police began investigating me,” said Mr Yang, “I got away with punishment because I only made a small mistake.” > A local prosecutor said they dropped the charge because Mr Yang had made good use of the state subsidy. “It is true that he has made up some facts,” said the prosecutor. “But the project is completed and is having a positive impact.”


This is literally the least Communist headline I have ever read


Make money for the mob and you're protected. Just don't be late with the kickbacks.


Amazing that the Chinese government feels they belong in a the rules based global system and yet pull things like this.


New (atleast new to me) scam to keep in mind. (12/18/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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Password managers are a great help with this too. Many scammers direct you to a site that's not the one they present themselves as. If the email directs you to a website that's not the one you meant to go to, your details or the option to fill it in won't show up, which is a huge red flag.


yeah seen these it's also why I don't ever use the links in any emails from online vendors I use. I login to amazon and check directly either on my phone or pc. It's not worth the risk to do otherwise. I also have a text alert which let's me know when items have arrived.


Similar phishing attempted happened to me, but with apple. Received confirmations that i had bought tinder plus and to review the purchase if i had any questions. Obvious spelling errors and clumsy phrasing made it easier to catch, but others may not be paying attention and get sucked into the scam. I've apparently bought COD mobile and tinder plus twice. I just forwarded the emails to Apple's phishing reporting email. Careful when opening emails, guys.


How do I convince my mother that divulging personal and financial information, because a random pop-up ad says she won $1000, is not the best course of action when browsing the internets? Sometime's I consider ripping the cable out of her house. She's barely 60, and really should have more sense. This woman's bank actually called her during said specific event, (although, this has happened way too many times before, but in other common and obviously scammy fashions,) to let her know that this charge on her account looked very suspicious. She insisted it wasn't, because she voluntarily gave the information, including her social security and checking account number so they can do a "credit check" and "verify her banking info," so that she may be sent the $1000 gift card she won from the internet, VIA MAIL. Bank couldn't convince her. I couldn't convince her. At this point, I think the bank is irresponsible for allowing her to continue to keep an open account when she invites that much risk and liability. She thinks it's no big deal because "the bank takes care of it if it doesn't turn out to be real." What do they do? Change you identity every time you voluntarily compromise your account? Ask your scammer's to politely destroy your social security information and not use it maliciously? But my biggest concern is, what likelihood has she divulged MY personal information? There are no words in the English language to get through to her. Sometime's I think about shaking her, but I don't think that would do it either, and she can't afford to lose anymore brain cells. I'm just waiting to hear she renewed her nonexistent car warranty. Those nice scammers must not have offered it to her yet.


Yeah. I got that too. Today as a matter of fact. I realized it was a scam, because the email said it was a gift from someone that I didn’t know. Who is this person, and why are they sending me a gift? Read everything, people. And when in doubt, delete the email and navigate to Amazon (or whichever ) from the browser. Don’t click the link.


A Nation’s People Offer the Best Return on Investment | Countries that spend on education, protect the environment and tackle inequality tend to outperform others. (12/18/2019) ~ Economics

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But what is the causality here? I feel like that well off countries with a real ability to invest in education, the environment and fighting inequality (and you see that almost all developed nations do this once they become developed). You can’t really worry about environmentalism, equality and the environment when people are starving and dying.


I had to read Why Nations Fail for one of my econ classes in college. 10/10 would read again.


What if it is the other way around. Prosperous nations have the ability to spend more on environmentalism, inequality and education, where as lower performing nations cannot? Feel like this is a which came first, Chicken or the Egg situation?


Chicken and the egg. Producing wealth is what also allows for more spending on education, protections, etc.


oh man i need to unsubscribe from this sub and just stay at r/academiceconomics there is nothing but politically biased drivel posted here anymore. this entire article is just reflecting on a book that assumes correlation = causation and has limited to no data to argue many of its main points. r/politics is bleeding over here something fierce. barf


Boeing Is So Big That Its 737 Max Production Halt Will Slow The Economy (12/18/2019) ~ Economics

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Too big to fail.


The impact will be real, but also has to be temporary, since the demand for planes isn't going down. Eventually they'll either have to engineer the 737 Max to be deemed safer or produce a new model entirely, but it seem either way they'd have customers. The time required to re-engineer or replace and the current backlog of seemingly unusable planes is disturbing (and expensive, they sell for $74 million each) though.


Technically a halt in production or any domestically manufactured item could slow the economy. If ticonderoga stops making pencils then they’d employee less people, buy less wood and graphite, use less shipping services.... It’s just the halting of 737 production is significantly more impactful to the economy


>bringing production down from 40 planes a month to zero Are they claiming that building 40 planes is 0.5% of GDP?. Because that's a tough sell. US GDP is 20T. 0.5% is 100B. The Max sells at about 150M or lower. So 6B in goods produced. Are they claiming that the multiplier of building a plane is 15x?


Wouldn't any halt of production slow the economy? Just that some production is material and some is immaterial.


Should I buy a washer and dryer or continue going to the laundromat? (12/15/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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Having a washer/dryer in your own home is one of modern life's great luxuries. I wouldn't even give a damn what the cost savings are or are not. Buy a washer/dryer.


Personal finance answer: Buy a used washer and an ikea dry rack. Real answer: Buy a new (discounted) washer and dryer and check on the warranty. Citi card offers a warranty on goods after manufacturers warranty. If you try to buy a brand new LG for $1200/unit your insane. A Kenmore at home depot will probably be right under $400/unit on discount deals. Breakdown of cost: Who cares, consider the convenience and the availability of a dryer when you wake up with wrinkled clothes. Public washers are usual filled with vomit, poop, or MRSA since other users dont want to use theirs for that kind of filth.


I got my washer and dryer on Craigslist for 150$ great shape the old owners just upgraded theirs.


$25 per visit? Sweet jesus. Buy the damn appliances. You're not even factoring in gas or time spent driving there.


You can buy new washer and dryer for approximately $800. Assuming you go ONLY once per week, that would take you 32 weeks at $25/week to see the cost benefits. If you look around, you could probably find used in good condition for cheap. I took a used washer and dryer from my great grandmother's old house when she passed away that lasted me 4 years before I had to replace. Bare in mind, new appliances will typically come with your standard X year(s) warranty also.


College Enrollment Skids for 8th Year in a Row in 2019, But Student Loans Skyrocket (12/19/2019) ~ Economics

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Forgive but I believe the author said this doesn't include growing/stable numbers of international students. Plus, almost all the decline is happening in small liberal arts colleges (mainly New England) and sketchy for-profit community "colleges". Finally, the number of kids is down quite heavily since 1990-1993 and 2005-2008. College age students are in the late 90s baby trough.


With how expensive university education can get (especially in America), good. Universities have been one of the fastest growing businesses in the US for at least two decades now, and have now become stupidly greedy. A lot of people still have not grasped it yet.


There was a short period of time where goin to college = good jobs etc Now there has been a massive uprising of shit colleges with terrible ROI... I surely wasn't mature enough to know decide plan at 17 but kids these days really really need to. you can't just go to college and fuck around and graduate with a good gpa an do well. you need experience throughout, internships etc.


This is what happens when unemployment is low. More people are employed and thus aren't in school. When recession hits you see more people educating themselves in order to land a job.


It's all that free government money, you see. That's why costs goes up. Not because government spending is dropping per student, forcing more students out of college. But because of free government money. Which has to be paid back. And therefore ... isn't. Free. And you can test it easily; if the number of students goes down, costs will go down. Wait.


A Third of America’s Economy is Concentrated in Just 31 Counties (12/16/2019) ~ Economics

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I think, if we want to address inequality, we're going to have to address the geographical differences in access to capital. Finance is listed as among the most concentrated of industries, and this map clearly shows the financial centers of the country. If there are only a few places with big banks, then there are only a few places where big loans will turn to new firms and economic activity.


How many of them are Republican voting counties? Maricopa as of 2016 but not 2018?


Yet another Pareto distribution.


Obviously we have job openings in companies where we can compete globally. These are service based industries where you can pick and choose your location. Many american fortune 500 companies are service based and exist in major cities to appeal to future employees and get a better return on recruiting. We should NOT be seeing the inverse atm because we still mostly have people work at a actual business location. I wonder how this will change with a work from home model due to the lower cost of living outside of major cities. The downside to this will be richer people moving to poorer areas for the lower cost of living. This will both enrich smaller towns but also drive up home values and thus increase taxes on the poorest who wont be able to compensate. It will be like a country wide gentrification. I have a feeling the prettier places that you see on r/earthporn will be the first to go as long as they have stable internet, which living in Montana right now, most do.


It makes sense. I'm actually a little surprised that it isnt even more heavily weighted to one side. With the rise of tech companies over traditional manufacturing it is easier than ever for a relatively small area to have a huge net impact on overall productivity. If you take a look at the top 10 american companies in 1980 vs. 2019 they flipped from being largely manufacturers of tangible goods to companies that exist online. Boeing, Dow, GE all needed massive production areas with backup facilities and complex supply chains. The same cannot be said for the Facebook's, Twitter's and uber's of the world.


I’ve been offered a job that pays $800 a week for only 3 hours a day, 3 times a week. (12/20/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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I wonder how many people are going to offer advice without reading your entire post. Pro tip for other commenters: OP knows it's a scam and says as much in the post.


I was exchanging an item at Walmart once and a guy in line asked to setup a $902 Walmart to Walmart transfer. The employee casually asked what it was for and the guy mentioned that he sold something on Craigslist and the buyer sent a check for $999 and he had to cash it and send back the item and the $902. I interjected and said SCAM and told the guy not to send the money. He said the check cleared at his bank. I told him it would probably bounce later and he would be out the money. The employee said she agreed and didn't want to do the transaction and like 3 other people in line agreed. I told the guy to go back to his bank and tell him the same story he just told us and don't spend a dime. I am 100% sure I saved that guy from getting scammed out of $902 that day. Sad part was he seemed like that would have really been a financial blow if it happened to him. (Would have hurt me too) I really hate how these scum bags prey on people like that. This check scam is executed many different ways. It's sick


Their website is the best, their Head Quaters is in Canada. And their CEO is 14


I just had this happen to me. I went through a Google Hangout interview and they hired me on the spot and wanted me to cut checks from my house. I played along but when they refused to tell me what I would be receiving at my house, I knew it was a total scam. I wish people would stop preying on people who need work.


Well I had this happen to me except it was a “dog walker” position. Paid for a year up front in a money order. Right before money order arrived try said something came up and needed the money back and will be cancelling the contract. But for my troubles I could keep half. Which was about $2500. I was skeptical the whole time. Once the money order arrived I went over it very closely and found multiple spelling errors and small iconographical mistakes. I pointed this out to my bank they marked it and apparently have a protocol where they turn stuff over to FBI. After doing some research I confirmed it was a scam. The thing is you deposit the money order(fake money) and the before it has time to be authenticated(but to you it looks like it’s actually in your account) they ask for money back. Which you send them in a money order(real money) and now they have $2500 in real money and your fucked.


How realistic is it to rent your own apartment with $1,900-$2,600 a month salary in Chicago (12/15/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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It would probably be smarter to get roommates or a super cheap apt closer to the $650 number. $800-900 would eat up so much of your income it would be a struggle.


Others have given advice on budget, but on your debt--please look at your student debt again. Pell grants are grants and therefore do NOT need to be repaid, unless you dropped out the semester you received them. This may seem nitpick-y but as you budget, it's important to understand the intricacy of your student debt--what kind of loan, what kind of plan you can be on, what interest rate, goal for paying it off.


Where in Chicago is an apartment that low rent?


I hate to be the one to point this out, but don't forget to include federal and state taxes, as well as health insurance deductions from your paycheck.


It would be better to get roommates. Sure it's doable on your salary, but you could get something cheaper and save some cash for other things. Presumably you are young and want to enjoy life a little?


Alan Greenspan says inflation ‘is inevitably going to rise’ as deficit balloons over $1 trillion (12/17/2019) ~ Investing

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> Why does he say this now when we've pumped 4Trillion and no inflation has occurred ? Because the GDP is 5x that, running $1 trillion + deficits and needing extraordinarily low rates will lead to higher inflation eventually. Any assets are rising faster than inflation, housing for example. If that continues to rise faster than inflation its going to spill everywhere else.


good cause i got a huge mortgage!


The same Alan Greenspan that overreacted to the sharp rise in the stock markets in the late 1990s by ratcheting up the fed funds rate massively helping exasperate the inevitable stock market correction, turning it into a steep recession? With that said, the deficit is a problem whether or not we want to acknowledge it or not. Maybe not today, but down the road, yes.


It's amazing people still give him airtime.


If only the politicians who campaign on debt weren't absolute vile liars and hypocrites. But they're on the right and love handouts to the wealthy so they are venerated here


40yo with no retirement plan and a small mess of investments. (12/16/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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The first thing to do is stop leaving money on the table with that 401K match.


>My current car is 14years old. Need to upgrade, unfortunately to something a bit high end, thanks to my line of work. No matter what anyone says, no one's "line of work" requires a specific quality of car. You are trying to justify this decision. There are plenty of lawyers that drive Camrys. >Exploring adding a studio/apartment in the backyard. Terrible idea. You don't have the money to spend. You are WAY behind on your retirement savings. WAY behind. A house is not a retirement account. You have no idea what the value of the property will be when you decide to move, nor do you want to be in the position of being forced to sell the house and move someplace much worse because you have no other retirement savings. >Thinking I'd get 30% of the investment back if I sold the home. You'd be lucky if it adds value to the home at all. How many single family home owners are looking for a house with an apartment building in the back yard? >I'm seeing a pattern of about ~$1500 leftover a month to burn. What should I be doing with it? You should be investing in your company's 401k up to the IRS maximum. >for the first time in my life I'm getting serious about retirement, Real talk: you aren't being serious about retirement if, at 40 years old, with a random smattering of investments, you are considering taking out loans in order to build a studio in your yard instead of investing in your 401k. You need to take a cold, hard look at what you have and run some numbers through a calculator. If you don't actually get serious about retirement, you will never be able to retire.


You make $100k/year, 40 yo, have a grand total of <$300k that you've managed to save up, and consider yourself frugal? You need to rethink that word. Your current retirement plan is 100% based upon hoping that your home value increases a lot. You need to start maxing out retirement accounts ASAP, you are behind. Also build up an emergency fund, I'm guessing you could last ~1month if laid off.


Your house is not a very good nest egg for retirement and you will not be able to tap into the value without taking significant hits (downsizing, reverse mortgage, renting out etc). You gotta follow the prime directive and really start pumping up your 401k and an IRA if you want a lifestyle anywhere close to what a typical 100k/yr life style would be.


DIY renovations generally do not result in increase in property prices. Adding a detached dwelling is even worst. 30% investment back is like 15k out of 50k spent. Why the fuck would you spend this money in the first place? You can easily get a 2nd hand car in very good condition for a few thousand dollars. you don't need something high end due to your line of work. You barely even have anything saved for retirement. How are you not enrolled in your 401k at 40y/o is beyond me.


FINRA fines Robinhood 1.25MM for violations in order execution and payment for order flow (12/20/2019) ~ Investing

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The RH CEO takes shits that are worth more than that fine.


The only shocker is that Robinhood apparently now has people working on compliance issues. Its totally not a priority for them and its completely due to culture.


Robinhood in the digital age steals from the poor to give to the rich


I was actually banned from the /r/Robinhood sub for pointing out the order flow issue 6 months ago. People said it was fine or didn't believe me. Funny.


Can someone ELI5 what they did?


The price of waiting can be also huge (12/16/2019) ~ Investing

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The cost of waiting is often not just 'also' large, it's the larger of the two. *edit* or, as the Peter Lynch quote goes, "Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves."


unless you have a specific short term target date you'll need to pull your funds out by, i believe the general rule is that time spent in the market is more valuable than timing the market


What I learned from over 10 years of investing/trading is that trying to time the market is a fool's errand. You might get lucky, but almost 95% of the time, it's better to stick to a plan and adjust than to wait for a "perfect opportunity". Let's say you've been waiting for that perfect opportunity, but S&P keeps rising and hits 4000. Your time finally comes and the market corrects 20%. Is that really an opportunity? That brings S&P back to where it is today. Too many people lose money overthinking and trying to outsmart the market. If you are not actively investing, it's better to passively invest over time whether the market is up or down


> I guess for us retail investor it is just impossible to predict what market can do. &#x200B; It's impossible for nearly anyone. If the timeline for your money is >5 years, just invest it. Waiting for the "right time" is a fool's errand.


50% cash? At least toss it to bonds or something while you wait.


Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning December 23rd, 2019 (12/19/2019) ~ Stock Market

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This made me chuckle 🙂


Ha! Found one company reporting next week: Neogen Corp (NEOG) Before the Open - Monday, December 23, 2019.


not sure how to play this


Happy Holidays everyone!


Your salary and “The talk” with the boss. (12/20/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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Your boss is lucky to have you as an employee and I’m glad everything worked out for you.


You have a good boss who understand and values you. Glad it all worked out and happy holidays!


I got a university degree in physics and I'm working as a software developer for over 5 years. I've been with my current company for more than 2 years but I haven't seen any kind of pay raise. I'm making 55k a year Canadian (About 42k USD) which is well below the standard rates for that position where I live. However I have super bad anxiety and I have no idea how to even begin to ask for a raise. I also don't feel like my performance in the last year has been as good as it could have been. I am 30 if that makes a difference. Do you have any advice?


Congrats! I ended up quitting my job where I wasn't going anywhere, career and pay, and doubled my income in 6 months. I'm still underpaid for my position but I'm relatively new at it so I'm thinking in about a year I start looking again.


> a young, small company, and in that five years, he has gone through a rough divorce, and his daughter fought and beat Leukemia. It's tough to demand annual reviews and pay raises when your boss is sleeping in a chair in a hospital next to his five year old. Not making an excuse for him, but more an excuse for why I didn't do something sooner. I have a very amazing, but forgetful boss. She was my supervisor at another company (and she was only 29 years old), and came to me and said she wants to leave and start her own company doing the work we did there.. and asked me to come with her. Having never owned a company before, and being pretty forgetful as a human in general, I made it 2 years in doing a LOT of work and only taking home $26k after you accounted for taxes and out-of-pocket health insurance (she had been paying me like $42k?). Like you, I went to her one day and laid it all out. She hadn't even realized what I was still being paid. She gave me a $15k raise, took on my entire health insurance, and I got a 5% COL raise a year later (and expect to continue getting 3%-5% each year). It is easy to be upset and feel like you need to go in guns blazing, but some people are truly just so occupied with other shit that 2 years have passed and they haven't sat down and assessed their employees. It by no means excuses that - it should be a priority. But if they are able and willing to rectify it, it isn't worth packing up and leaving for me personally.


Boeing reportedly nears decision on cutting or halting 737 Max production (12/15/2019) ~ Investing

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I hope Boeing won't allow MBAs and bean counters to make engineering decisions in the future. The MAX has been a national embarrassment.


Boeing needs to shut the hell up with forecasts of when it'll be approved to fly again. Every time they set a date the FAA has to delay more just to look like they're not Boeing's rubber stamp. Boeing needs to say whenever the FAA sees fit, they're in charge, not us 😉.


The end of the year is two weeks away and one of those weeks is the holiday shutdown. So "some time in 2020" is not news at this point.


I'm convinced that Boeing should be split up. Make new companies out of military in St Louis, passenger jets in Seattle, and space in ~~New York~~ California, then burn their management headquarters in Chicago to the ground.


Just kill the damn thing. Nobody trusts it anymore.


Getting tired of reading about “record debt levels,” when most articles never mention ratios or as % of GDP or adjusted for inflation etc. I think they are elevated for sure, but high enough to trigger a cascading crash? (12/18/2019) ~ Investing

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As you discovered nominal debt levels are a useless indicator. What matters is ability to service debt (both Corp and sovereign)


Greenspan thinks high inflation will come eventually. The higher the deficit, the more treasuries the Fed has to sell. If oversupply happens, price goes down and yield up. An option available to the Fed is to hold treasuries on its balance sheet so it doesn't have to sell them. This is equivalent to printing money, because the Fed receives treasuries from the government in exchange for dollars. If it doesn't receive those dollars back from investors, it is printing money. What isn't clear is that printing money will cause inflation. The argument in favor is easy to understand: if there are more dollars, they are worth less, so dollar denominated goods will rise in price. I don't understand the argument against.


Debt levels only exacerbate the problem, the catalyst is usually something else.


The biggest boon in debt among corporations has been for repurchasing of stock to push valuations higher. This is why the stock market growth has exceeded anything else for the last 5 years or so. As long as interest rates stay low, this is fine, but, if there is a correction in interest rates, it'll create a cascading corporate debt crash like none the world has seen before.


Regardless of anything else, the only possible downside of issuing treasuries indefinitely is inflation. Basically, as long as inflation is 4-5% or less, the government via the Fed, US Treasury, and primary dealers, can create as many dollars as they would like. Currently, the national debt is $23T. $4T is sitting on the books at the Fed. Actually, more is sitting at the Fed as primary dealer reserves. What if that number was $8T? What about $16T. Unless high inflation occurs at the consumer level, that number (i.e. 4, 8, 16) is meaningless. It just sits there as a ledger entry. Ten years ago we would think it is big. Ten years from now we will think it is small. There is only one thing both parties have ever agreed on, regardless of the words and rhetoric used. Spending more money. Therefore, the national debt will only go up. It will never ever go down, ever. Full stop. Any talk of the debt ever going down is a non-starter for everyone with any meaningful power. The desire to have 2-4% inflation will always exist. Deflation is bad for everyone except for those with money under their mattress. Therefore, if you want to retain the value of your saved wealth then you have no choice but to buy real assets that maintain value (e.g. real estate, gold, bitcoin LOL?) or invest it (e.g. bonds, stock market). People will get their social security. People will get their medicare. It will be worth less than they think. It will be worth less over time. Treasury will pay for it by issuing treasuries (obviously). Banks will buy those treasuries because they have to. The Fed will buy them from the banks. Then they will sit and be forgotten on a ledger at the fed. Some people talk about our reserve currency status being at risk. Since we have the biggest military and every other country's military is minuscule in comparison, this will not be changing anytime soon. We can forget about oil as being an issue because we are swimming in a sea of it now. More than the middle-east. Further, we are slowly transitioning off of oil. Aramaco does not have us by the balls anymore. More importantly, our currency is stable and regardless of who is office we have always ensured the financial system is stable too. We are the world's safe space, financially. Our desire for a stable financial system and our ability to enforce relative stability (regardless of the President) makes the dollar a very attractive reserve currency. Regardless of the hype, China, Russia, and Europe are not the world's safe space financially. They all prove this constantly (e.g. negative rates, oppression, being shady). In the end, the best advice is no surprise. Invest in stocks (index funds) and bonds. Maybe add a small bit of a gold etf if you are inclined. Diversify. Buy a house at a good price when you can. Get a degree that is useful. Pay off debt. Pay into your 401k. Spend enough to have an enjoyable life but not beyond your means. That's all there is.


Hedge Fund Manager Kyle Bass: “The FED’s gauge of INFLATION is a JOKE on the US population. The BLS shows that avg car prices are up 35% since 1980 (39 years). In 1982, the average car price in the US was $7,000. In 2019, its $37,185. The REAL INFLATION number is +500% or more on cars” (12/19/2019) ~ Finance

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Let’s look at the low end because it’s easier to compare. 1981 K-car (base Plymouth Aires): $5880 ($16199 according to the BLS’ CPI inflation calculator) 2019 Yaris 4door base: $15600 2019 Chevy Cruze base: $17995 Nominal inflation is around 300%. Real is zip. What’s changed is the availability and terms of financing. Nobody financed cars in 1981, if they did, the interest was 15%+. By 2019 everyone with a full time job can get a 7 year loan at 0-7% interest rate. The combination of ZIRP, widespread loans and leases, and ever longer loan terms have allowed car companies to extract higher prices from more people. People don’t buy cars anymore—financing has turned it into cars-as-a-service. And that’s why you see plumbers driving $70k brodozers. They don’t have $70k in cash, but can sign a contract obliging them to spend a high percentage of their income on the monthly payment.


It’s also a little disingenuous to decry “REAL INFLATION is +500%” and leave out that’s referring to the compounding accumulation over a 37 year timespan.


Cars have gotten more expensive because of new technology and features not just inflation


The pricing information that feeds into CPI is adjusted based on changes in quantity, features, and quality. That is why, for example, the price of a TV is considered to have deflated so much. Yes, they are cheaper, but more importantly, they have a lot of new features that increase their value. The same effect applies to cars, wherein newer models add new features that give them inherently greater value, even though they are typically replacing cheaper models which then become unavailable in the market.


You are comparing apples to bowling balls. A car in 1980 is not the same car as one made in 2019. Even a low end car is different today than it was in 1980.


Alan Greenspan says inflation ‘is inevitably going to rise’ as deficit balloons over $1 trillion (12/17/2019) ~ Economics

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The real question should be "inflation in what?"


Remember when he told Congress worker security is bad for the economy? Good times


Greenspan still clinging to the 1950's orthodoxy. This is the guy who didn't believe collapsing the US housing market would be a bad thing.


These bafoons think the worst thing that can possibly happen to an economy is rising inflation and not a whole damn economic downturn or destroying the entire planet


Same dude who caused this mess.


When potential employers ask why you want to leave your current job, what is the most neutral, forgettable answer I can give to limit its impact on their hiring decision? (12/17/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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You can spin all those things in a positive way. Bad management = I want the opportunity to work with mentors who are experts in our field and learn more from them. Inadequate coworkers = I want to be part of a thriving and cohesive team, no prospects = I want a long term home where I can grow.


>I want to leave my current job because of bad management, terrible company prospect, and inadequate coworkers. "I want to work for a company with solid management, a bright future, and great people to be alongside. I feel you company offers me this more than my current employer."


You don't want to leave. But you saw this opportunity and it's something you've been eyeing for a long time and you can't pass it up.


I would turn it around and explain why you want to work for the company doing the hiring. That way you can flatter them and avoid negative perceptions about yourself.


I am in the C Suite at a $4B a year company "I think I have gone as far as I can in this job without someone retiring, hitting the lottery or dying (Haha) so I am looking to find something new where I can expand my responsibilities and have more up side for the long haul, Do you think your company would be a good fit?" &#x200B; Always remember to close with this question: "Have you heard anything today that would make you think I am not a good fit, because I would love the opportunity to address those concerns"? &#x200B; Good luck!


President Trump impeached. What does it means for markets tomorrow? (12/19/2019) ~ Investing

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Against my better judgment I left this post up last night hoping it wouldn't be full of political attacks. It is so I'm locking it. Everyone that made a political attack in this thread is getting a 60 day ban. There were 40ish completely civil and well thought out posts when I last saw this thread so there's no excuses to come in and start making low effort partisan posts. Please reference rule 5 and the sticky on politics. I'm going to leave the thread up in case anyone is genuinely interested in reading through a discussion on impeachment in relation to markets.


Nothing, this was factored in a while ago.


Markets will go on


With not even a one republican voting yes, it should tell you that nothing will happen when it moves to senate as it is controlled by Republicans. And honestly I don’t see any replacement for him for next years election either so far. I think we might see some huge changes with some major new trends because if there’s one thing I have been learning with this presidency is how divided we are becoming in this country, I mean you better not even touch politics topic in almost any circumstance with other people, it’s at the point of being as bad as cussing at somebody and they will fight back.




‘Recession’ posts on /r/investing tracked against S&P 500, part deux [OC] (12/20/2019) ~ Investing

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LMAO that initial July rate cut really sent Y'all over the edge eh?


LOL, everyone needs to calm down. If you're over 10 years away from retirement, just dollar cost average invest in the S&P, keep the path and do not cash out. Recessions, booms and average markets come and go. As Buffett has told us, if you stay in quality stocks long term, you'll make money no matter what. Time IN the market, not TIMING the market.


I work in the industry. You wouldn’t believe how often people ask me about the next recession. No matter what I say, they reply with “but what about (economic data point x)” or “but didn’t you read what analyst x) said?” And I get this stuff from people in their 20s all the time. Bro you don’t need the money for 40 years. Relax. Great post here, thanks for sharing.


Well if on average a bull market lasts 3x as long as a bear one does, you have a 66% chance to be right by saying the market is going up, I don't know about you math majors out there, but always bet on the up.


I use reddit as a barometer for retail sentiment. And as Buffet says, when those are fearful it’s time to be greedy.


Sweden Riksbank breaks with Europe, raising rates to positive 25bps in concern over negative rate distortions (12/19/2019) ~ Investing

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Good. Interest rates should've never went negative. Too bad they didn't take it to 0.01 just for the psychological benefit of getting it off the zero bound.


>the rate increase could strengthen the currency *Which has taken a nose-dive in the past 2 years.


This is bad news bears for everyone. If the interest paradigm has a lower limit at 0, the amount of stimulus that can be put into the economy by cutting rates is finite, which means when recession comes, we will hit 0 and it wouldn't be nearly enough to stop it. I guess it means the central bank will switch to direct asset purchases as the only tool to deal with economic turmoil, which is terrible in the long run too. This mess is going to be disgusting when shit hits the fan.


Good, my cash was taking a beating.


How will this affect the international along with Swedish market? Is this a sign of a bear market where you should pull out of stocks or a sign to stay in for a while longer?


SECURE Act changes to affect student loans and 529 plans (12/18/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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Please note that the bill has not been signed into law at this point. We'll do a megathread if and when that happens.


Another major change in this bill that I'm less excited about is the elimination of the lifetime RMD (stretch) option for inherited retirement accounts for most non-spouse beneficiaries. Instead, they will have to be distributed within 10 years.


I guess its better than nothing, but I can't understand why there is a $10k lifetime limit. Should be $10k per year, which wouldn't change all that much, because there are so many states that either don't have income tax, don't offer a deduction, or do offer a 529 deduction but only for only a few thousand dollars.


So all this is really going to do is save me $50 or so in **state** taxes a year IF I max out the single filer contribution for my state ($5k). Way better off investing the money unless I am missing something?


Can someone ELI5? Does this impact me as a 25 year old from NJ paying of my current student loans?


Strategist says markets have nothing to do with fundamentals anymore (12/17/2019) ~ Finance

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Fundamentals are a proxy for determining the intrinsic value of an asset. Financial markets depend on offer and demand, market mechanisms such as bidding and the availability of short-selling and derivatives, regulations, transaction costs, information transparency and quality as well as how risk is transfered between buyers and sellers, notwithstanding anomalies such as momentum. In a low rate environment, it becomes increasingly difficult to hedge inflation with risk-free products, therefore there is a change not in the fundamentals of the assets themselves in terms of their cash flow streams, but in the fundamentals of the market. If an asset class ceases to hedge a risk it was assumed to be able to hedge, it loses a lot of relative value and therefore other classes gain value. This is one of the desired effects of an accomodative monetary stance, to force investors out of risk-free assets. Many models are outdated in these market environments. It's not necessarily because the market is out of touch with reality (though it can be), but because the models don't take into account all the considerations that come into pricing assets.


I will preface this by writing I did not listen to the pundit. This is based on the title. I think that the fixed income markets are decoupled from fundamentals-certainly in the "higher credit quality" buckets. When sovereigns like Italy are yielding in line with same tenured treasuries, the "risk free rate proxy", markets are not functioning properly. The coordinated central bank interventions have artificially forced rates to zero or subzero. This has forced investors from pension funds to asset managers to search for yield, to manage duration gaps in their portfolios, in areas they may not have otherwise. Also, portfolios are being reallocated with a greater portion to equities, which I would argue are not as effective at asset liability synchronizing. This search for yield has driven rates down and distorted the markets ability to accurately capture the riskiness of assets via yields.


I like the part where he said anymore


I wish my name were TooGood. People’d say, “What, you think you’re too good for us?” Yah. I am.


Taco =/= Burrito


Amazon becomes its own biggest carrier after cutting ties with FedEx (12/21/2019) ~ Stock Market

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RIP careers as a delivery package driver. UPS and USPS paid well, but Amazon won’t and never will.


168 to 148 in one day. Feel bad for anyone that was holding that overnight


FedEx blows, they either pass their delivery to other parcel or it's late or stolen. Focus on commercial, FedEx rules.


This worries me, UPS pays great and gives way Amazon will do the same.


Amazon logistics drivers have not delivered a single package to my apartment correctly. It's a huge issue at the complex I am at; I'm not the only person impacted. I get my packages late, they can't find the building, they leave the package in common unsecured areas, they drop it off at the club house and not mark it as delivered, they call me and say they are "right outside" but when I go outside they are not there, and I can't call the driver back. It's insane how many problems I have had with them. I have called and attempted to lower priority of Amazon logistics but they won't stop shipping with them anyway. I ended up dropping prime right before Xmas rather than renewing. The funny part is UPS, FedEx, and USPS never fail to deliver packages on time. Fuck Amazon.


As electric vehicles become more popular, will we see a drop in the value of the prescious metals used in catalytic converters? (12/15/2019) ~ Investing

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Depends how big the market is for the metals outside of use in catalytic converters. Platinum's use in catalytic converters accounts for about 50% of demand each year so that would suggest a big fall in prices but it wouldn't happen over night.


People tend to overvalue the adoption rate of EV’s. With the world awash in oil the price of gas is so low that it doesn’t make economic sense for most. We either need a drastic ‘08 style run up in oil prices (highly unlikely) or material reduction in price of EV’s (still a ways off). Could be a solid thesis but maybe next cycle


If i were to guess I'd say more volatility. It seems to me that a high sustained level of demand contributes to price stability.


Here are trends for massive ev adoption: Petroleum down, oil companies down. Lithium up - lightest metal, won't be easily replaced. co, nickle up - depends on if they can reduce need for these in future batteries. Copper up. Legacy automakers and dealerships down - too much useless equipment and union employees and pensions. Palladium down. Tesla up. Battery manufacturers up - Panasonic, lg, catl. Gas stations down - many bankrupt if cannot profitably transition to ev charging centers, this will also be a major tipping point for evs when it becomes inconvenient to find a gas station since they will have to be located on cheap land i.e. city outskirts. Ev charging equipment makers up. Ev charging station network operators up. Wind and solar up - cheap batteries will smooth out their delivery curves and political push to not power evs with co2 emitting sources.


Even as a larger percentage of the US market is EV, you'll need to factor in growth in places like India, Africa, and South America were the infrastructure necessary to support EVs will take a long time to roll out. Just make sure you look at this before you take any positions


Amazon Is Its Own Biggest Mailman, Shipping 3.5 Billion Parcels (12/20/2019) ~ Economics

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It seems obvious that Amazon Logistics will eventually accept external customers and become a profitable division like AWS because their delivery workers are all contractors instead of full time employees with benefits.


Generally, parcel delivery workers make a living wage and are protected by unions. I'm quite certain that companies like Fedex and UPS have brought enormous amounts of efficiency to the process. By Amazon creating their own system filled with contractors, they're making a frontal attack on worker's wages. Instead of being paid by the hour and having benefits, Amazon pays people by the lot and they get no benefits. They are contracted to deliver a set of packages to a geographic area no matter how long it takes. Amazon argues that if you can do it faster, than you can make more money. I'm not stupid enough to think that Amazon won't increase the number of packages needed to be delivered if a route is consistently being completed quickly. They have access to that data in real time.


Hey Alexa What do you call it when there's integration, but it isn't horizontal?


Not gonna lie, I ordered 3 items during Black Friday. When shipment arrived, only 2 items were packed but Amazon didn’t know both arrived. A week later it admitted defeat and said package lost. I was refunded on all 3 items I know it’s early but my advice today: order shitloads of stuff and hope amazon doesn’t know it delivered the items! FREE


The most fascinating thing to me about Amazon that truly separates them from 99.9% of businesses is that they focused on building an efficient supply chain that they then built a business on top of. As someone who works in supply chain consulting, I can verify that many many business (big businesses) do not focus on supply chain until it becomes a large enough expense that they have to, they build a business and then adapt a supply chain that works for them. There are incredible opportunities for savings within companies that have poorly executed supply chain networks. Often by the time they realize this, it's too late to truly realize all the benefits of a "perfect" supply chain.


Nearly 7% of Disney+ users with Netflix plan to cancel Netflix, survey shows (12/18/2019) ~ Stock Market

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anecdotally, most people I talk to are gonna cancel Disney after they finish Madalorian. I think we're in a new era where many users will switch from service to service, one subscription at a time.


Turns out I never go to Disney+ for anything but Mandalorian. After years of the kids watching the same Disney movies, going to Disney+ is for that level of hell where a princess song is playing on repeat forever.


I don't think anyone doubted that Disney+ would eat at Netflix's share of the market. The question was how much... All things considered, IMO at least short term, this is actually a very good sign for Netflix... The fact that a media giant like Fox can come in, offer everything they offer on Disney+, at half the cost of Netflix, and only take a hypothetical 6.5% of the share away should be more than acceptable. If this number was 40%, then I think there is cause for concern. Fox offering Disney+, ESPN+, Fox, Hulu etc. in a low cost bundle is great... but my who wants to navigate and manage 3-4 separate accounts on 3-4 separate apps. It's just a pain. IMO - This is saying that an overwhelming majority of those who use both don't see the value in only having Disney+. Could this change over time as the platform evolves? Sure. But the survey at least is showing that they have a long way to go. >In fact, Bank of America found that, compared to its prior survey, overall cancellation intentions for Netflix fell slightly to 4% from 5%. Positive for Netflix. >“Our survey and company reports suggest healthy U.S. adoption of Disney+, but we are encouraged that most early Disney+ users do not see it as a substitute for Netflix,” Positive for Netflix. Disney+ has a TON of opportunity as a byproduct of Fox. But not in its current form. IMO - The best part about Netflix is that it's unmistakably one platform. You know what you're getting, and they're focus is there. It baffles me that Fox offers, Disney+, Hulu, ESPN+, Fox Sports etc. on separate platforms at different prices. Yes, they bundle them, but it's still separate services to browse/log into and manage just to get fox owned content. Just consolidate it into one with separate tiers/price points. Make it one service which can be navigated all at once. Let me multi-screen a Disney movie for my son while i watch a live sport (s) off to the corner. Let me jump out of a Marvel movie and right into live TV without having to exit an app and boot another or change inputs to an apple TV or another device. If this were the case, good chance i'd drop netflix. But i flat out refuse to have to deal with managing separate streaming apps with different accounts and different billing cycles. It's just some bullshit. As a side note/edit: The playstation vue/Netflix combo was as good as it current gets for me. Once PS Vue closes, i'll probably just replace it with Youtube TV. But i will not have 4 separate streaming services to cover what i want.


Disney+ has literally nothing I am interested in watching other then The Mandalorian. I watch netflix way more and would probably cancel Disney+ instead.


6.5% seems super low for a poll intended to hurt Netflix.


2,000$ a month income, no expenses, how to budget? (12/16/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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If you have no expenses, then your budget should be zero and you should save every cent of it. But if you need a little bit for personal expenses, set a nominal budget of like $100 and all the rest should be saved. You arent going to have many times in your life when someone else is footing all your bills, so you better take maximum advantage of it now.


It makes sense you feel a little lost when you have little to no experience with finance. That's okay! You're in a good space to ask questions and can do lots of your own research. Do you track your spending? That probably will give you the best sense of what limits to set in a budget. Also, are you saving for retirement? An IRA might be easy peasy for you without any monthly expenses. What is your health insurance? Can you contribute to a HSA? Do you have any major purchases coming up? (car, house, grad school, trip, etc) that could also be part of your inspiration to budget and save money.


You sure spend a lot for having no expenses.


Do you have any debt? Knowing that will help with setting a budget. If you don’t, set an amount for personal entertainment expenses like online shopping, going out with friends. Then save the rest. $500 a month for spending cash should be a good start then adjust that as you go. The more you can save the better.


When you are in a lower tax bracket, consider a Roth IRA after any match from your job.


Car company is charging me money for smoking in their car. I am not a smoker. What do I do? (12/18/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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Rental manager for Enterprise here, if it truly wasn’t you, go in and talk to them in person. Dont be rude, or demand a manager, just politely talk through it with them. Id recommend asking to talk to who rented you the vehicle as well. At my branch, if someone that didnt reek of cigarettes came in and talked through the charges with me, i’d be much more willing to help them, then someone who screamed at me through the phone


You can fight it, but if they have evidence that there were ashes in the car when you brought it back, it'll be an uphill battle. Unfortunately, this is no different than failing to note a dent or scratch on the bumper.


Talk to the rental people. Tell them you aren't a smoker and think it was from the previous rental (or an employee?). They may or may not choose to be helpful or understanding. But it costs nothing to ask! If you're lucky, they'll look back for the previous renter, and assess the charge on them...


I'd dispute the charge. I mean first work with the rental car place and tell them your story. If that doesn't work, talk to the credit card company that you used to rent the car and tell them this extra $400 is an invalid charge.


In the future, if you get a rental car that smells like smoke, don’t drive it off the lot and go ask for another car. I’ve done this several times in the past because I don’t want to get blamed for something that’s not my fault.


Mike Green: “Americans have made more money investing in index funds than they have with active managers or with other vehicles. That’s very easy to demonstrate in the past. But there’s very little ability to actually detect the emergent phenomenon that are being created because of this.” (12/16/2019) ~ Stock Market

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This sounds suspiciously like a repainted ETF bubble conversation. The ETF bubble topic has been talked to death. With fractional shares and zero commissions, the next revolution in the markets will be the completely customized ETF. M1 Finance is already doing it, more or less. So, ETF's and the general concept of an ETF like vehicle, is not going anywhere. It's how everyone does long term investing these days.


Index funds are nothing new. It has always been difficult to beat the S&P 500. Money managers have always been kind of a scam since the rate to which they have been able to outpace the market has always sucked.


$BA and $PG for the 401K wins!


There is a great episode on this with Raul and Mike at Real Vision. I highly recommend it too! Anyone thinks gold is good alternative investment because of overvalued stocks and potentially not enough liquidity due to passive investing?


I'm still convinced half of the US market is being propped up by Robinhood alone. Investing has never been so accessible.


The best investment of the decade turned $1 into $90,000 (12/20/2019) ~ Investing

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The problem is to stay as cool as ice and HODL for 10 years, and not to sell your $1 Bitcoin when it was worth $50 or $250 or $5000...


Cool, so what's the next investment I can turn $1 into $90,000 over the next decade? I always hated these stats..."if you invested 1 cent into stock ABC in 2003 you'd have 1 million today!"...ok, well that doesn't help me *today*.


In a way I'm glad I never really got in. I was aware of Bitcoin when it was still feasible to mine with a single GPU, but I was a lazy teenager who couldn't be bothered to figure out how it worked or how wallets worked. I think mining those coins & inevitably losing them would feel much worse now than never having them to begin with.


Anyone else remember the bitcoin faucets that would give you up to like 5 coins for free everyday? Crazy to think those 5BTC would now pull over $35K! LOL I still hold some today, to me it's a fascinating mix of computer science/macro econ/game theory & market dynamics. 2020 halving should be especially interesting given how things have matured since the last one.


That was a wild speculation, not an investment.


Bank of England refers hacking of press conferences to FCA. High-speed traders were able to listen to audio feed before the official broadcast. (12/19/2019) ~ Finance

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Paywall.... If you’re going to post FT links, at least have the decency to post the text. The Bank of England has acknowledged that high-speed traders have been able to listen in on market-sensitive press conferences before they were officially broadcast after one of its suppliers hacked into its systems. The central bank was confirming an article in The Times, which reported that a third-party supplier to the BoE had been sending an audio feed of certain press conferences to other external clients before the main video feed was publicly available. The audio feed was installed only to act as a back-up in case the video feed failed, but the BoE said it had recently discovered — “following concerns raised with the bank” — that the feed had been misused by the supplier since earlier this year. “This wholly unacceptable use of the audio feed was without the bank’s knowledge or consent, and is being investigated further,” the BoE statement said. The BoE said that after identifying what was happening, it had immediately disabled the supplier’s access — before its most recent press conference on the Financial Stability Report. It also underlined that security had not been breached in the release of market sensitive decisions of its policy committees. The issue “related only to the broadcast of press conferences that follow such statements”. However, this is an enormous embarrassment to the BoE. Comments made by Mark Carney, the governor, and other senior BoE officials at the press conferences that follow meetings of the monetary policy committee and financial stability committee often move sterling and gilt prices: having a start of a few seconds would allow traders to pre-empt the rest of the market. The Times reported that the supplier had hacked into the audio feed at least since the start of this year and said documents showed that the service had been sold on to high-speed trading companies, through a market news service connected to the supplier.


Unless I'm misreading this, it has nothing to do with "hacking". BoE simply never expected that anyone would *preferentially* use the slightly-less-lagged "backup" audio rather than the slightly-more-lagged video. At worst this sounds like a ToS violation by the particular vendor involved; realistically I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if it wasn't even *that*, but rather a careless oversight by BoE.


Newbs - they should see what we do...


Mr. Beeks! By the way, this is a live press conference they are talking about that the Bank of England also does an "official broadcast" on. So what these people are accused of doing off of information from a live press conference before the "official" broadcast stream is released I think it's hard to make the case that information doesn't become public once it's physically said at a live press conference, even though it takes longer for that information to get disseminated more widely (for some) Like if you are physically present at the conference and hear it live, are you not allowed to trade on your phone?


Why is audio the first means of distributing the message? At this day and age, there should be some sort of online transcript of what is going to be said that should be released before it is verbally spoken. Not surprised at all, tbh.


The Next Recession Will Destroy Millennials (12/17/2019) ~ Economics

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Here is the thing. Prices of things are only worth what people will pay for it. If millenials are destroyed. They will spend less money which means business earns less and has less incentive to invest. They probably won't be buying shares, they won't be buying houses and someone else will need to buy them to keep prices inflated. If they can't get into debt to buy shit the system kind of fails. If even with completely 0 interest rates it the cost of assets is too high to buy into then they won't, and prices in an illiquid market can fall fast. So if the future generations fail. Then the current generations also fail. Just in different ways.


>Investors are fleeing to safety. Where is this "safety" that the article speaks of? > The stock market is dipping. Is it?


The next recession will destroy home values to never ride again and give millennials their first shot at a good economy in the recover


Wait wait wait. Only 37% of under 25 own stocks? The only pensions left are for state and federal employees. I doubt that’s more than 15%? So does that mean that somewhere about 50% have precisely $0 in for their retirement? What am I missing? As always, housing continues to be a big factor here. Previous generations essentially built their nest egg on the back of housing appreciation. In fact, for many, that’s the only equity they have. This will of course come to a head between younger generations needing a place to stay and older generations needing to liquidate to pay for their retirement.


These countless recession articles are destroying the meaning of a recession


‘We squandered a major economic recovery’: Harvard professor (12/19/2019) ~ Economics

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>We ? Well maybe those with the money and power did. The rest of us rats are down here just trying to survive.


That would be the Obama recovery I assume.


There was never a recovery. QE was supposed to solve the problem, now were on QE4. The fed is monetizing its debt Interest rates are being held down still and not being allowed to rise. The trade deficit with china is widening, not closing. The country is going deeper and deeper into debt on a national level and a personal level but americans arent becoming more productive otherwise the trade deficit would shrink. All the big banks that got bailed out in 2008 are still insolvent. Gold is going up And we've got bubble in stocks and bonds. They're high in nominal terms but it's not because of any underlying fundamental strength


> "The overwhelming majority of business leaders surveyed in the report said lobbying primarily advanced company interests, sometimes at the expense of the public interest. " It seems like that would be an accurate statement right? Obviously us plebs make do with this makeshift ad-hoc gigs system for those of us that are not self-employed. (W2 in contrast to 1099 employment) Hehe, I mean in general I guess instability economically and that kind of spending is a type of stimulus? I mean this in regards to trying to predict US foreign policy.


‘This Is a Big Deal’: Goldman Sachs Rules Out Funding New Coal Projects, Arctic Oil Drilling | “The smart money on Wall Street is drawing red lines on oil and gas, and exiting coal.” (12/16/2019) ~ Economics

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Ah yes, Goldman Sachs. The original vampire squid. Definitely a moral beacon.


I wonder if there big concern is cities banning or retricting gas powered cars in city centers in coming decades


*"As long as sustainability is mainly used as a tool for marketing and business strategy, a means of accumulating capital and wealth subject to economic growth, the surplus gained from the increased efficiency will be invested into a further expansion of production and consumption and converted into profits for the global plutocracy, which ultimately worsens the global sustainability crisis."* Stefano Ponte - Professor, International Political Economy Director - Center for Business and Development Studies - Copenhagen Business School


Goldman thinks oil, gas, and coal have passed their prime. FTFY


Any idiot who supports government subsidies to private companies with international investors are complete fuck wads. America is so fucked.


Help me wrap my head around this. We hear a million or even two won’t be enough to retire, but then we see all these articles about how most people don’t have $500 for an emergency (12/17/2019) ~ Investing

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There will be a lot of people trying to survive by living off social security, which wasn't meant to be 100% of a retiree's income, it was meant to be a supplement. So family will be called upon to help out with living expenses. Those who don't have family will end up as section 8, living in some ghetto retirement home. That figure of one million or two million is for those who want enough passive income to continue their normal standard of living that they had in their 30's/40's/50's. But that's kind of a fallacy because you don't need the same things or have the same expenses as when you were 40 as you do when you are 70.


I'm a 40 year old veteran and I've met all kinds of people. Out of everyone I've met in my entire life, I can say that only a handful of people really cared about their retirement money. Some people will get lucky have pensions. There will be a lot of bitter old people working at Target and blaming people for their financial problems. Not trying to be condescending, but it is reality.


Paid off house + social security is easily enough for most people. Headlines saying 1-2 million isn’t enough is targeted to people on HCOL areas or people wanting to sustain a nice lifestyle.


2 million isn't enough for an upper class family with kids going to private school and expensive colleges, three cars, no particular restraint on day to day spending to retire in their 50s. Many of the people who find themselves with 2 million not having thought too much about it and then google 'can I retire?' will fall in that group. For a family that keeps to lower expense lifestyle, 2 million is enough. It's also achievable for most middle class families but it requires saving a bunch for a long time (either themselves or through a pension) and most people either don't know or don't want to do that. As for those who don't save much at all, they'll mostly either work until full social security kicks in and then live on a restricted income, and/or they'll get support from their kids. That's how it's possible for 2 million to not be enough while simultaneously people retire with much much less.


My grandparents are in their 80s and at this point their sole income is basically their Social Security benefits and money their adult children give them. Grandfather never had a job with a pension or a 401(k). He started a business, it did well for a while and then failed. He started another one from scratch, it did well for a while, then it failed too. Moved into a 9-5 office job relatively late in life and then got pushed to take a buyout package when he was 65 due to a restructuring and age discrimination. Grandmother was a homemaker, apart from some occasional secretarial jobs. Some money they had saved up got invested in a business owned by a family friend who they'd always trusted; he funneled cash out of the business to his wife and kids, filed for bankruptcy and stopped answering their phone calls. A lot of weird things happen to people in life. It's not so much that people aren't responsible as it's next to impossible for someone to graduate from college, immediately proceed into a well-paying job, and then spend the next 45 years investing in index funds without ever having anything go wrong - a job loss, foreclosure, medical crisis, divorce, lawsuit. tl;dr Most people will not have $1M when they retire, and never had any real wherewithal to do so in the first place.


Identity stolen. How do I protect myself for the rest of my life? (12/15/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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Check out - it has a nice guided interview on steps to take when your identity is stolen. The reality post-Equifax breach is that your Social Security Number is already exposed to bad actors. Since this person used access to your mail, you should also take steps to secure your mail, like getting a locking mailbox, or using a PO box.


Besides the other advice I'm sure you will get, I'd buy a locking mailbox and if that's not an option switch to a PO box. Credit freeze is always top priority.


Set up a home camera and arrest the theft (file police report and give video to police, do not engage the theft yourself!). **Stealing postal mail is a federal crime**.


You can call the companies that control the three different types of credit scores you have and have them freeze your credit, that way no one can open any new credit cards or take out any loans in your name, there is also just checking your account frequently. &#x200B; You can easily **freeze your credit** with Equifax on **their** website, or via an automated **phone** line: 1-800-685-1111 (1-800-349-9960 for New York residents). If you'd rather talk to **a** human, **their** customer care **number** is 1-888-298-0045. In case you need this.


>Is this a fundamental flaw in our current society? Yes. At some point we are going to need a system change to how we give out credit, and how we verify identity of the people doing so. I hope they catch the person that did this, unfortunately it's probably someone you know or a neighbor.


[Planning] So I Just Moved To Kansas City. (12/16/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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Congratulations. You are a rock star. You will need to find a very cheap room situation, probably with roommates or a basement apt. People at work are a good resource. Ask the shelter if you can trade work for staying a bit longer. They may have resources to help you find a place. Until then, just pile up money.


work as many hours as they’ll let you, pick up extra shifts, and save as much as you can say 70% of income +. After a couple months you’ll have a couple thousand which will let you get an apartment. Get 2/3 roommates. Then once you’re settled make a long term plan. Maybe you want a car. Or to go to school. And save for those and retirement. You’re doing great good luck!


Some very rough math: $13 x 35 hrs = $455 a week $455 x 4 weeks (usually) = $1820 a month Taxes will be withheld, I assume. Federal, state, social security, Medicare. Total of 20-ish percent will be taken out of each check. $1820 x .8 = $1,456 estimated take home pay per month. Some suggest that no more than 30 percent of your salary goes to rent. That’s $456 in your case. Public transportation is very limited in KC, in case you hadn’t figured that out yet.


you should post this to r/kansascity and welcome ❤️


network like crazy...maybe find a good would be cool to find an atypical rent situation like a granny flat over someone's garage, a basement with separate entry...maybe multiple roommates (think living like poor college students).


Huge Disparity in Corporate Profits Hints at Something Amiss (12/18/2019) ~ Investing

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Recession confirmed!


Most of these economic news are often conflicting. US was in the midst of a Great Recession with the default mortgages. Many local companies had record earnings and still wanted to bring H-1 visa workers over. Home owners boast that their homes appreciate 20-25% every year. It was until subprime loans blew the top off. Defaults showed up in volumes. Finally people realize the stock crash (-35%), housing, unable to refi. Things are then all put in together as real crisis. The focus now can be smaller sized companies, retail, disappearance of malls, home less issues.


Don’t worry China said they’d buy some beans


It just feels juiced up and will crash around nov 2020 to coincide with the election


The Fed putting up $500 billion in repo for reasons they won’t tell us to entities they won’t name is more than a “hint” that something is amiss, it’s a tornado warning siren


PayPal and Microsoft’s employee holiday gift is a game changer for working parents (12/15/2019) ~ Stock Market

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So many employers, especially tech companies, tout how they are so progressive they are and how much they want to encourage mother's working in the workforce. But the single biggest thing they could do would be to offer free childcare in the office. A small part of a single floor dedicated to child care would be huge for working mother's (and fathers). It likely wouldn't cost nearly as much as all these one off programs they do to promote how friendly they are towards working mother's.


Sigh...i need to get a good job


My office (employer) just offers plenty of PTO. As well as a work culture that doesn't guilt-trip employees for taking time off - even if it is just to have time to Christmas shop. I took this past Friday off to have the day to shop - while my daughter was at school, and there were fewer crowds. I have co workers who have been taking half days to shop as well.


It's only for the holidays? That's honestly not even that big of a deal. I guess it's better than nothing, but I feel like the company is just doing this to pat themselves on the back. Start offering year round childcare or subsidizing it for your employees so the don't have to spend over $1k a month per kid to go to work.


Sounds like a press release to just look good to me. If you can't trust multi-national corporations, then who can you trust?


My Grandmother bought some stocks for me in 2006, but I have no idea where they are or how to access them. (12/15/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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If the brokerage firm just shut down there may be news articles about them. Or even their web site may mention what you should do to find assets. There should be some kind of representative with the assets now.


Google the company and terms like “sale” “Closure” “merger” and other like terms. They may have sold the portfolios of their customers before the closure.


Contact the stock transfer agent. More than likely Computershare. The transfer agent should have record of your ownership, even if owned book entry at the now defunct brokerage.


Every publicly traded equity (stock) has a CUSIP # assigned to it. This number and your title of the account (assuming it's your or grandparents name) is registered with the company. If you can remember the company name then you can find where your shares are kept..


Do you have a billing statement of some sort, hopefully with an account number? It can show what kind of account it was. I had stock from a relative but it was in something like a "transfer on death" type of account that ended up in my mother's name, and she eventually transferred it to me. If you can show it should be yours, you might be able to get an active brokerage to pull the assets into a current account. If it was in your Grandmother's name but intended for you, it's going to be a little harder. You don't mention if your Grandmother passed, but your having to do this yourself leads me to believe she did (sorry) which means the unclaimed property might be in her name. I'm not sure how it plays out in this scenario, but probate lawyers might have to be involved. Another scenario is that it has for whatever reason been sold since that letter and there's nothing to find. Best of luck to you.


Villains or visionaries? Hedge funds short companies they say ‘greenwash’ (12/15/2019) ~ Finance

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Comments been shorted.


As a consumer, "green" companies who give away a pair of trees for every widget you buy or whatever says to me that the margins are high and I can get something of similar or better quality for less elsewhere.


where da comments at


Short sellers are there to bring balance to the force.


U.S. Companies’ Repatriated Cash Hits $1 Trillion Under Tax Law (12/19/2019) ~ Economics

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Now, that's good news. Why isn't this being reported more widely?


Can someone explain why this is good? Does the repatriated cash get invested into the economy, or are taxes paid on it? Or does it just move to an American bank accout?


And the dance goes on. Hide the cash in the way the government encourages you to so you can 'bring it back' and everyone wins. You get a huge tax cut, and he gets to look good, and then you spend it on your stock buyback which improves the value of that stock option bonus. None of this makes a single additional iphone, car, or air conditioner.


And more than half has gone to stock buy backs. So much for all that hype about job creation from increased reinvestment in labor and capital


This is wonderful


The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet is up $377 billion in last three months. Current balance $4.137 trillion (12/19/2019) ~ Investing

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But whatever you do - don’t call it QE!


So.. it can be 10 Trillion dollar.. so what.. it does not matter.. nothing matters.. long live perpetual bull market!!


I love how yall are all like "it's not qe, cause x,y,z" yet the big honchos on wallstreet are all calling it qe. You armchair economists crack me up.


Pace of a trillion and a half annual balance sheet expansion is obviously just nOrMaL oPeN mArKeT oPeRaTiOnS and you lack acumen if you dare question it. The Fed said so!


Remember when they were wounding down their balance sheet? Lasted all about 6 months and now they bought it all back! No QE here, just undoing all the quantitative tightening that happened since the last QE!


Germany Debuts Green Bonds in 2020 to Support Climate Action (12/19/2019) ~ Economics

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Meanwhile they keep buying gas from Russia 🙂


The irony is that by going green they sacrificed energy independence in favor of buying gas from Russia.


Oh, wierd ... Germany creating more massive economic institutions that will collect interest and "fee's"? No thanks, if they were directly funding things I would be all about it. But just like the Paris Accords, all this does is create a massive bureaucracy that will be corrupt as all heck.


Lol this is so stupid.... just tax the living shit out of carbon emissions and call it a day.


2019 has a chance at being a historic year for the stock market (12/20/2019) ~ Stock Market

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The meaning of that is diluted when the market was down 20% at year end last year from intrayear high. A better marker might be up 10% from last year's peak.


Has everybody forgotten how bad everything tanked q4 2018? Of course the market did well this year as it recovered. It's just how the timing played out.


Literally every year is a historic year 😂


Bottomed 6 days before 2019.


I doubled my net worth in 2013. But theres a million warning signs showing up now. Buying stocks now seems like buying overpriced tickets to a really good concert after the intermission.


Repo Oracle Zoltan Pozsar Expects Even More Turmoil (12/20/2019) ~ Finance

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Repo Oracle Zoltan Pozsar Expects Even More Turmoil The Credit Suisse analyst foresaw the recent trouble in the financial system’s plumbing. He says it’s not over. December 20, 2019, 5:00 AM EST In September an often overlooked but vital part of the global financial system short-circuited. It’s called the overnight repurchase agreement, or “repo,” market, and when it seized up, the interest rate that institutional borrowers had to pay for very short-term loans went (briefly) through the roof. In the aftermath, people in the market sought answers—to understand both what had gone wrong and the risk of it happening again. Many have turned to a Credit Suisse Group AG analyst named Zoltan Pozsar, who predicted the breakdown with almost eerie accuracy in an August research note. Pozsar has some bad news: There’s more trouble ahead. Despite the Federal Reserve’s recent move to pump almost $500 billion into the repo market to prevent a yearend funding squeeze, deep-rooted problems remain. The extent of those problems could become clear before the close of 2019, as banks scramble to get their books in order for regulators. “If the yearend is less of a problem because of the repo bazooka we got from the Fed, and if the message of my report played a part in getting that bazooka, then that’s a nice way to be proven wrong,” Pozsar says. “But now we’re getting into a point in the year when balance-sheet problems are going to flare up, and I think the system will get gummed up again.” If he’s right, it means there’s something amiss in a more than $2 trillion market that lubricates the gears of finance. The repo market is where the cash-rich of the financial system lend to the cash-poor, with banks, money-market funds, hedge funds, broker-dealers, asset-managers, and others borrowing and lending to each other short-term. While borrowers in this system have plenty of longer-term assets, on a day-to-day basis they may not have the liquidity they need. Repo lets them borrow cash against those assets to tide them over. In finance, a lack of liquidity “kills you quick,” says Perry Mehrling, a Boston University economics professor who co-authored a 2013 paper with Pozsar. “How do you not get killed by liquidity? By rolling it over. By saying, ‘I can’t make the payment today. I’ll make it tomorrow.’ That’s basically what overnight repo does.” On Sept. 17, throughout Wall Street, fund managers were suddenly hurting for this short-term cash, and big banks seemed unwilling or unable to provide it. At the heart of Pozsar’s argument is the idea that two grand experiments—one in monetary policy, the other in regulation—have collided to make the repo market more prone to clogging up in this way. The monetary experiment is quantitative easing. After the financial crisis, the Fed began stimulating the economy by buying bonds. The money it spent to do so added to the excess reserves held by banks. After years of QE, big banks became accustomed to always having cash to lend in the repo market—they were swimming in excess reserves. Excess Reserves of Depository Institutions But then the Fed began tapering off QE, buying fewer bonds and reducing the excess reserves in the system. There’s still a lot, but this is where the regulatory experiment comes in. To prevent a repeat of the 2008 crash, bank watchdogs have tightened rules in such a way that the biggest lenders feel they have to keep more reserves on hand. So falling reserves and banks’ desire to hold on to more began to pinch. At the same time, other financial players were starting to rely more on the repo market. “There’s been a very sharp increase in the demand for funding in the last 12 months, in particular from levered investors such as hedge funds,” says Joseph Abate, money-market strategist at Barclays Plc. In September all these forces combined with a few other quirky events—such as corporations needing cash to settle quarterly tax bills—to create a brief systemwide shortage of ready cash. Pozsar says another squeeze is likely. The potential results? Pain for hedge funds that use the repo market as a source of cheap money and a potential ripple effect on assets such as stocks and bonds as investors are forced to cut back on positions. His boldest prediction is that the Fed could push more liquidity into the system by buying longer-term Treasuries again. Pozsar says that would amount to a new round of QE. In this case, the goal would be to keep things running smoothly, not to stimulate the economy. Some analysts say the central bank is already on top of the situation. “The Fed has been very proactive in addressing the liquidity concerns that emerged in September,” says Jerome Schneider, head of short-term bond portfolios at Pacific Investment Management Co. The issue, he says, “is not that there won’t be enough liquidity, but what the cost of that liquidity will be.” relates to Repo Oracle Zoltan Pozsar Expects Even More Turmoil Pozsar’s warnings get attention on Wall Street because he has a big-picture view of this complex market and can explain it well—at least to those fluent in the language of repoland. “I think he has every short-term interest-rate trader in the world on his speed dial,” Mehrling says. “He’s like a spider in the middle of the web, where he can gather this information and then try to make sense of it.” Born in Hungary, Pozsar moved to the U.S. in 2002 and began his career at research company In 2008, shortly before the collapse of Lehman Brothers, he went to work at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he became known for creating a map of the financial system that included repo and “shadow” banks outside of traditional lending. It’s so detailed that anyone viewing it on a computer has to zoom in seven or eight times to read any part of it. A poster version was pinned up in the New York Fed’s briefing room. Pozsar encouraged co-workers to stop by to review it, saying otherwise they’d be looking at only “10% of the picture.” After a stint at the U.S. Treasury Department, he landed at Credit Suisse in 2015, where he began writing research notes about the mechanics of the Fed’s coming interest-rate hike. Pozsar has an MBA but not an economics degree, and his analytical approach differs from that of other bank interest-rate strategists. He focuses more on the human behavior inside banks. “Finance is anthropological,” he says. He thinks it’s important to understand that every bank has a different business model, and how that shapes people’s decisions to lend—or not. Even at a time when the numbers say they have plenty of money.


The not-a-recession is coming together


I don’t understand - why do hedge funds speculating in financial markets get access to the repo market? It sounds like new entrants are drawn to the repo market by the cheap capital and are significantly increasing these issues beyond the new regulation.




These articles confuse me when they talk about how much the fed is injecting. My understanding of repo is that the loans have an overnight duration so $100M a day is just $100M and not $100M * number of days. Am I missing something or are the authors increasing numbers to stoke fear? (Like... If I loan you $10 and then you pay me back and then take another loan, I didn't loan you $20. I loaned you $10 twice. You never owed more than $10.)


Boeing will suspend 737 Max production in January (12/16/2019) ~ Investing

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Keep thinking about buying Boeing and it just keeps being a bad idea. I'm sure there's money to be made, but who knows how deep the issues go.


I’d be surprised if they don’t go back to 2016 prices. Back when outlook was rosy and the price was $150 - and before they decided to spend their money on their own stock instead to quality engineering. Edit: I’m wrong about the buybacks. It was even worse than I thought; they were buying over a billion dollars per quarter starting in 2013. In hindsight maybe that should’ve gone to R&D....


May be an interesting time to buy the dip. The 737 will eventually be brought back and the stock should go back up...


Whole aerospace industry is fucked. Half the companies are boeing suppliers


How does this impact GE and their aviation wing?


SEC proposes allowing more investors access to private companies (12/19/2019) ~ Stock Market

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This is good and bad. Good that more people are getting access to avenues of wealth generation that were previously denied to them. Bad in that private companies don't follow the same rules as public as far as transparency. I bet we'll get average Joe getting into private companies. There will be some crisis where he and millions others got taken advantage of losing everything. New laws get passed to prevent that. And then a new class of company comes up to avoid these regulations that are only limited to the wealthy.


This is bullshit, having recently done my first private equity investment I can tell you the current process has ZERO verification. I got asked to confirm I met one of several possible qualifying criteria for being an accredited investor... At no point did I have to provide supporting documentation. The only thing this proposed rule change will do is allow scammers to market these investments to people who really aren't qualified to understand the risk they are taking.


Sounds like a great time to pump and dump.


Please. Those requirements aren't needed to hold private equity so why are they installed for investing in it? This change would make private equity far more liquid and valuable. People will do dumb things, but we don't need the SEC to be a nanny.


bruh...i’ve never been one to cosign r/latestagecapitalism but this is getting bleak. market is offering poors the ability to buy fractional shares, and shit like this makes me feel like the end is near.


Stopped using credit cards and cut my spending down by half! (12/16/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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Growing up I had an interesting experience that really shaped the way I see finances, and it revolves around this exact idea. I wanted a bean bag chair (idk why) for the longest time. I mowed lawns, saved up $300 cash (I wanted the denim version) and went to the mall. I originally told my mom to transfer the cash at the bank and she can just take it from my account. But she made me take $300 in cash to the register and buy the bean bag. The feeling of handing over that much money as a 7ish year old was wild. It was deflating. I thought of how many sidewalks I shoveled and yards I mowed. All to get a bean bag chair? It was a huge regret. I never used it. I’m much older now and that memory still sticks with me. Congrats OP. Having a handle on finances is such an unbelievably good feeling. No debt, limited rotational expenses you don’t forecast for, and predictability is key.


Congrats! Most people can benefit from using cash more than credit cards, but few actually run the "experiment" to see if they are one of those people. Credit cards offer so much cash back partly because they make so much off of you due to high spending.


80+ hours per week? That’s not healthy my friend,


Another way to put it is: you decided to spend less by cutting down on discretionary purchases. If you were overspending by $2000/month, that's not just because you used a credit card.


Once you have the full control and you trust yourself.. go back to using reward cards and you'll start earning money by using credit cards. But I do agree, only use them if you are not going to abuse them and you can pay them off each month in full.


Significant Insider Trading Activity (Last 7 Days) (12/19/2019) ~ Stock Market

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Why this site doesn’t have a damn price chart for these stocks is beyond me.


Where does this list come from? Would be great to have to check on my portfolio every few days to spot if some big news is coming...


I never really pay attention to this... almost every "named executive officer" has 10b5-1 plans to either automatically set up the sale of their stock on pre-set intervals or to allow for a predetermined window for the executive to buy or sell. So to me, these lists always seem like "luck of the draw" unless they can somehow separate trades that aren't governed by 10b5-1 plans.


Del Taco knows of the upcoming franchise wars and was tipped by Taco bell was coming out hard


Interested in $XAIR , it’s looking juicy


Experience a large unexpected drop in your mutual fund recently? Read this before making your own post please. (12/17/2019) ~ Investing

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New horizons fund is giving back almost $7 per share- that’s almost 10% of the current stock price. Why is the dividend so high? Most of the stocks in the portfolio only has 2% dividend.


Also, check to see if there are any messages from your broker/platform. Fidelity sends a message "Hey, mutual find ABCDE announced a distribution of $X.xx to posted Date Y."


Time to buy then ?


What’s the point of doing this anyway?


Given we wind up with a higher quantity of shares from these distributions, wouldn't this help us out in the long-run if we assume the share price will continue to appreciate long-term? Or is this a net-zero occurrence regardless of what happens in the market long-term? Talking 401ks specifically for this question.


Sterling at A 36-Month High, Soars to $1.35 (12/15/2019) ~ Economics

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Anyone have any idea why? I mean I guess there's less uncertainty, but now there is a certainty of a hard or no deal Brexit, would that not cause it to fall?


I'm no expert but my understanding is that the value of sterling was low because of the no deal Brexit risk, no deal was already priced in. Now that it's effectively off the table it can bounce back!


One thing every answer has missed is that the biggest change is the potential for a Corbyn Labour government (v. hard left leader for a left party). If you look at the greatest fluctuations in the sterling over the last couple years, the market has reacted to Corbyn much more significantly than Brexit uncertainty which mirrors the general sentiment in the city and NY.


The Conservative win means that Boris' deal can get through Parliament without backing from other parties, bring certainty into the market again. My best guess, being a 14yr old lo.


That's still quite low compared to pre referendum levels I guess uncertainty over hard brexit is fading


What happened in 2017 to cause Boeing’s stock to rise 100% after being range bound for a long time? (12/18/2019) ~ Investing

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A tweet.




It released the max... That's why now that production stopped, it's likely going beliw 300 again.


Space Force


Investors are nuts


In the early 1960s 19.5% of Americans lived on less than $9,269 per year (in 2017-dollars). Today only 2.3% do. (12/16/2019) ~ Economics

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The main issue with this paper is that it counts the profits of the health care industry as income for low income people. The various Census Bureau poverty measures still show around 40 million people in poverty if you don't assign health care industry profits to them.


Is this better or worse when you consider that most women didn't work in the 60s?


Which is why these narratives get so tired after a while


In the 60s the average person in the world has never ridden in a car. Today anyone with Wikipedia have access to more knowledge than anyone single person in history.


so 2.3% of Americans make less than 9.3k per year, and 44% make 18k or less per year..... that seems incredibly unlikely to me. Note that i'm saying that 44% make less than 18k per year is BS not that this number is BS


How to Spread Tech Across America | Instead of trying to re-create Silicon Valley in ailing regions, just give more R&D money to universities in those areas. (12/18/2019) ~ Economics

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I really love the idea of strengthening local Universities. I still think we are thinking too small though. Every person young and old should receive an extra conditional day off to attend these Uni's. There is so much wasted bandwidth. Also, you want to see these researchers interacting with businesses, bring the business people to the uni's. Part time, 1 day a week, to pursue whatever strikes them as interesting. Education isn't something that's ever supposed to stop. My Uni let's anyone over 65 attend any lectures for free. Same concept.


The modern view is that government institutions are bad and private institutions are good. What the opinion piece presents is the opposite. Hurray for modern economic theory.


I mean Silicon Valley isn't randomly located. Like most tech hubs it's located in the suburbs of a major city with world class universities nearby. Plus it's in the sunbelt.


The way things work right now infuriates me so much. I am currently a researcher at a state flagship. Recently, we have been trying to get a program off the ground where researchers/students partnered up with local start-ups and businesses. The objective was to get academics industry experience and small businesses expertise that would otherwise be too expensive. It was an overwhelming success and mutually beneficial for all parties. Unfortunately, the dean came in and shut it down because he thought that the sole purpose of the university is academic research. Apparently, researchers going out to work with start ups in their own time detracted from that. In no uncertain terms, they told me that they would kick me out if I attempted to push this stuff further. I got in at the right time and saw the writing on the wall. Consequently , I made my own connections and continued this sort of work with a small outfit consisted of the remnants of the program after it was shut down. We have more interested clients than we can service. Shame that the concept will die with each of us slowly moving on with our career.


Give money? Whos money? Who’s gonna end up paying for it?


Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Century is Now a Movie (12/19/2019) ~ Economics

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After reading the article, it seems like none of the serious criticisms of Piketty's work are going to be addressed. This is a bit of a shame because it means that there's going to be a rehash of the arguments all over again (e.g. elasticity of substitution between capital and labour, measurement errors etc.).


Directed by Michael Bay?


I can't wait to see this.


I hate that they attribute the wealth tax to Warren when Sander's wealth tax is much more effective and kicks in earlier.


Just figured out how to get ETF data into Google Sheets without paying for a subscription to an API (12/20/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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Works great! Wish I could upvote twice.


It's probably easier to use the built in GOOGLEFINANCE function. You can get historical (or real-time!) prices for any ticker. = GOOGLEFINANCE("SPYG", "price", "1/1/2019")


This is built into Office 365, in Excel you can format a cell as "Stock" using the "Data" tab in the ribbon. Has a lot of data for each stock so it's easy to build a table out of it. A lot less work than this in sheets because it's natively built in. Works great for ETFs, unlike "GOOGLEFINANCE"


Be aware that this might not work some day if they change their layout or page markup.


Why stock investors aren’t rattled by Trump’s historic impeachment — and what it would take for that to change (12/19/2019) ~ Stock Market

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There is no uncertainty here. He wont be removed from office. Republicans in the house voted along party lines and theyll do the same in the Senate. So no reason for the market to worry.


Smart investors realize it's just a sad song and dance by the Dems that means nothing. Keep in mind that the people rallying, cheering etc, have almost no buying power and zero influence.


Don’t bite the hand that feeds market volatility... any news makes us money in volatility


Last time i checked i had no stocks in Trump inc. but in companies that existed before Trump and will be there after Trump. So unless some lunatic gets into power that kills off all businesses in the US i'm not worried.


Because it's just a big, boring nothing burger.


I just tanked my credit score over a dollar. Is there anything I can do about this? (12/15/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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This should serve as a reminder to everyone: Check your statements every month! Even if you think you haven't made any charges, you need to check your statements!


On the plus side, you now have incentive to skip the car loan entirely, going straight to buying an adequate car with cash and paying no interest.


Call the creditor and talk to them about it. If you have a good history with them they may reverse to charges and remove the late pay from your credit report. I have done this several times over the years and my card issuer always removed late fees and accrued interest as well. Good Luck!


Are you sure that it was a legitimate charge? If someone stole your info and charged the card (by verifying it), it might be easier to remove the delinquent status.


Loan officers get to apply some judgment usually, especially in cases like this where it was a completely inconsequential amount and understandable reason. Make sure you shop around for loans though so you know what is good for exceptional credit and then don't go ahead with anything less.


Someone stole $950 from my bank account via ACH. How?? (12/16/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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All they need is your account number and your bank’s routing number to initiate a debit. Fortunately, as long as you report the fraud within 60 days, you are virtually guaranteed to get your money back. You should consider changing your account number.


You need to involve the banks fraud departments. Report this it is a federal crime and this Gloria Gonzalez can go to prison for defrauding a bank. They have entire departments that can handle these sort of matters. The bank will likely freeze the offending account and initiate a investigation.


The how doesn’t really matter. File a fraud dispute with your bank.


Just another reminder that US banking is woefully insecure and that all it takes is two numbers to pull from an account. (Yes, there might be many unseen anti-fraud detection methods that banks use, but that still doesn't prevent all fraud. And when it does happen, it's up to the consumer to notice and shut it down.) We can quickly (un)lock debit and credit cards. Why not have the same ability for ACH transfers?


You can stop giving your bank routing and account numbers out. Use autopay with your credit cards rather than auto draft using the account. You can also use Plastiq to pay bills that don’t accept credit cards. That Gonzales woman likely isn’t the person who took your money. Whoever stole your account info likely stole hers as well. Edit: They can recall ach transactions. They aren’t permanent for some time. That’s why you have to wait for something to “clear” when you send or receive money, like a check. You’re thinking of a wire. A wire is permanent.