Update to “gym sold my bank account to another gym, $500 charge” (10/17/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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A list of advice offered in the last thread: Talk to the HC Don't talk to the HC Let your bank deal with it Let the police deal with it Go there and start yelling Go there and start talking loudly and passive aggressively Destroy their reputation online Go to the media


Glad you got it resolved! Thank goodness for the helpful manager.


Good job getting your money back. In the grand scheme of disputing transactions, 2 weeks is still actually very quick. There are some disputes that go on for months. Every now and then a thread will pop up here about someone who's bank denied their dispute after months.


The manager is probably correct about the refund process. They need to make sure you don’t get a double refund, if your bank takes back the $500 and then they refund $500, they’d have to correct the second error. Glad you got it corrected!


similar thing happened to me. old gym sold members' information to a new gym, *without telling the existing members*. next thing i know, i'm being charged a fee for a gym i never set foot in. i call the new gym and ask what's going on; they explain that my membership was transferred to them. i ask to immediately cancel, but they give me some bs response, saying they can't do that over the phone–i have to come in and do it in person. screw that noise, i'm not driving across town for something i never signed up for... i call my bank and put a stop charge on the transaction. got the refund a few days later and never heard from the gym again.


More than half of millennials have credit card debt with 1/4 owing more than $10,000 (10/16/2019) ~ Economics

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We’re talking about people as old as 38. People with kids and houses, so it doesn’t seem that surprising.


Credit cards are bad options for many Americans if they cannot trust their spending habits, especially cash back cards. Millenials are just more vulnerable to this due to student debt. If you have a credit card and you can afford to do it, just pay it off right after you spend. This is a common problem of Gen X, and Millenials cannot follow in these footsteps.


> About 55% of those $5,000 in debt were stressed about it, compared with 82% of those $5,000 to $10,000 in the hole and 84% of those $10,000 to $20,000 in the hole. So 45% of those with over 5k in debt aren't stressed about it. If you have over 5k in debt and you're not concerned about it, that's a great way to end up 10 or 20k in debt. Surely there are exceptions but these people seem to be morons.


Being in massive debt is the american way now. It used to just be frivolous spenders, but now more and more people are going into debt just to meet their essential needs.... if you live paycheck to paycheck and your car breaks down you have no choice but to go into debt ... but you're already living paycheck to paycheck, so those minimum payments never really take down the balance... then suddenly you need new tires.. add it to the debt ... that shit builds up fast.


As a 35 year old with no student or car loans and only about 2-3 years left on my mortgage - this is hard to even process in my mind. I have never been "poor" - I have been out of money to be sure and I have been in a situation where I was losing money faster than I was making it, but never 'borrow my way out' poor. The people in my area who have credit card debt like this are people who are working full time jobs, but mixing Two-Income Traps, over-homing, over-autoing, and still smoking, drinking, and going on trips/concerts/restaurants. Its usually a lack of ability to budget and then something coming up that just puts them out of sorts (medical expense, auto expense, home expense, etc) That's just my area - we are fairly rural so its not about rent prices or unemployment. I realize other places have other issues.


Received an email from my own email address demanding payments. (10/17/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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They spoofed your email. It's a very common fraudster tactic. I'm sure there's no hack. Delete the email and change your password, since it never hurts to do so.


If a criminal actually had access to your banking info, they wouldn't be trying to scare you into anything. They'd just silently steal your money


Pay me, otherwise I will pay myself on your behalf. Hmm...


They don't have access. There is no security on email "from" addresses, it's the same thing as someone writing your own address as the return address on an envelope and then mailing it to you. Ignore it and change your passwords anyways, never hurts to do that. Edit: yes, *some* email providers have implemented additional security measures, but they are not universal and OP's provider clearly has not implemented this (correctly). There wasn't any need to point this out to further the conversation. The "from" field as originally developed in the early days of the internet had no security, it was whatever the sender wanted to put there, and this is still very easy to do.


I would bet 1 whole bitcoin this person does not have this kind of access. They probably spoofed the email account name. You can always setup a new email account and get in contact with all relevant institutions and change your login information and contact preferences to be sure.


Job gave 90 day notice – got new offer- should I give 2 weeks notice? (10/18/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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Trying to play games in a relationship is never a good idea - doesn’t matter if it’s business or personal. Once you accept the new offer, give two weeks. They might let you go early, and they might make you a counteroffer. Either way, you’re just trying to be honest with each other.


Are you getting severance pay? If you quit early you’ll likely lose out on it. Can you push back the start date of your next position to be after you’re laid off?


Why is your current employer laying people off? I would be leary of staying at a company that is letting people go.


Until you accept the job, do not give notice. Once you've accepted the new job, yes, give notice. If you are interested in staying with your current employer for the right price -- your best option is to go to your director right now and tell him you have an offer that you're strongly considering.


Pitting 2 offers against each other is a good way to lose both.


In between jobs. Should I drain my savings for mortgage and student loans, or tell my loan companies I need to skip a month on those? (10/20/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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This is exactly what your emergency fund is for. Pay your bills on time and keep looking for a job to replenish what you used once you’re employed again.


Applied for unemployment?


> I can’t imagine it taking more than a month to get a job I'm also a pharmacist - when our department let a lot of people go last year due to workforce reduction, it took all of them 2-12 months to find a new job. Its a saturated market, and depending on where you live, it may take longer than you think. Where I live now, every job posting receives 25-30 applicants. I would prepare for the worst and use your emergency fund for its intended purpose.


Never be late on your mortgage payment!!! Sell you cat, your CPU, your ass if you have to, just don’t make a late mortgage payment. If you do, you’ll never be able to refinance, you’ll have a tough time getting another loan for a 2nd home and your 800 credit score will rapidly tank. All other bills are fine just not your mortgage.


Pay minimums. Cut out all extra spending. Spend every waking moment finding a new job. Sell things on craigslist. Make the cat nervous that its next. You say you have 6 weeks of emergency money, do not let anything go late. Rice a beans for food. If you spend more than $100 on food this month, you splurged. Beans are cheap. Lentils are great cooked in chicken broth. $1 ricearoni boxes make a meal for 2. Make this money last. Scrape the last bit out of the pantry.


World economy is sleepwalking into a new financial crisis: “Past crashes spawned new thinking and reform but nothing has changed since 2008 banking meltdown, says Mervyn King, former Bank of England boss.” (10/20/2019) ~ Economics

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Legislators have been removing regulations to enable 2008 style meltdown.


Capital requirements were increased and stress testing is now routinely done on banks. There are are many things that were not done and some that were badly legislated so not properly implemented but it's not right to say nothing has changed.


Well it worked out so well last time for those at the top. Why change anything? After everyone lost their houses, wealthy people came in and snapped them off the market for cash and now we have people renting houses. Then the rent goes up and up and up. Where have we seen this pattern before? Hmm. Merci Beaucoup.


Mark Carney was an excellent upgrade over this guy if this is what he thinks. I'm not denying something can happen, but to say nothing has changed is daft.


This is nonsense. The financial system is significantly more safe than it was before the 2008 crisis. Since that time we've been through multiple panics including the European debt crisis without falling into recession. We've enjoyed a period of unprecedented financial stability because of those fundamental changes. Changes that are still in tact despite some more recent adjustments around the edges on things that we went too far on.


Will MIL get in trouble if I tell the bank she is cashing fake checks (10/16/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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No more or less trouble than she is already in I would go talk to the branch manager Some people have to learn the hard way


I work for a Credit Union. Unfortunately, she will be responsible and has no way of reclaiming the money. She won't be charged with a crime unless she knowingly passed off bad checks to steal money. Call the branch manager and explain that an elderly relative doesn't understand they are being scammed. We see this scam all the time. I've seen people pay "Microsoft" $4,000 in Itunes gift cards for repairing a $500 laptop. The person even assured me they were tech savy... but somehow didn't connect the dots until after they'd sent off the gift cards. Scammers try to scam 10,000 people and eventually find one who is malleable enough to just follow directions.


I worked at a credit union and we welcomed things like this. We could talk to them explain it is a scam and refuse to cash future checks we thought were fraud.


> Could I call her bank and explain she is being scammed and doesn't believe us? Could she get in trouble for fraud? Would the bank even take me seriously? It doesn't hurt to call. The bank cannot talk about her accounts with you, but you can definitely tell them to look into it ASAP. Whether they listen is another story. It doesn't matter though. The bank will figure it out soon enough on their own. They will reverse the checks. Most likely close her account and report her to ChexSystems. She will be on the hook for the full amount that she withdrew plus various fees.


Bank Fraud Manager here. A portion of my team looks for this kind of stuff daily. You may report it to the bank at any level and ask that their Fraud / Risk unit to look into it. An experienced analyst will be able to spot this type of scam pretty quickly and should reduce further loss. I'm sorry you have to deal with this. People who fall for these types of scams are usually very adamant about validity and just hopeful for an opportunity that seems too good to be true. I hope your MIL has a backup plan for the loss. Usually the bank will work with the victim for payments.


Analysis | Americans already pay a ‘gigantic’ hidden health-care tax, economists say (10/18/2019) ~ Economics

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And Americans who buy health insurance outside of work pay a not-so-hidden tax when they pay premiums without the benefit of a Section 125 account. The tax disparity between group and non-group insurance is absolutely bonkers.


Zucman: EITC should not be seen as a tax Also Zucman: Buying health insurance is a tax


“Code Blue” book about AMA and big Rx is very enlightening. The system developed around some perverse incentives and not at all rational. Some very costly and inefficient legacies persist. Edit Read the book. This is a terrible synopsis. Big Rx had take or pay deal for penicillin in WW2. It wasn’t known if it could be made at scale. It is easier to make at scale, and financed the political action system that we know and love today. Same guys! Also a ‘guild’ (AMA) took over stuff unrelated to their mission and still dominating the landscape to a stupefying degree.


thank you, i am so sick of people telling me real wages have increased when the majority is just due to "benefits" increasing one of which is 'oh health care got more expensive, we're still covering the exact same things though, so basically your pay went up!' thats not a pay increase, there is no increase in quality of life at all.


Liz should start calling premiums and co-pays a private tax. So when shes asked about it she can say "I'm going to lower your taxes" as the soundbite, then explain that the progressive plan will save money.


You now need to make more than $500,000 a year to be in the 1% in America, new study shows — and that’s the highest it’s ever been (10/17/2019) ~ Economics

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>In total, 1,432,952 taxpayers fall into the 1%, Bloomberg reported. For comparison, only 143,295 taxpayers fit into the 0.1% category, according to Bloomberg. Was this written by an algorithm?


Unless things take a very wild turn, the amount required to be in the 1% should be the highest it's ever been every year.


I've always understood the "1%" to represent the top 1% of wealth holders, not earners.


The DQYDJ blog has great numbers on income trends. The scary part is that the median through the top 90% percentile are actually going down in income for the past several years. So a lot of these 500k+++ returns are coming at a cost of hollowing out the upper-middle class. My own experience is that a lot of 2x income households in the 50th-90th percentile range go through a restructuring when they have children. The expectations of most high earning jobs is such that you have to choose to throw a child in some high-end daycare 5x/week or one of the people in the household winds down job (and thus income). And the accounting here is nuts. A high end day care or nanny at post-tax dollars can really destroy an income earners profitability to a point where it makes sense to wind things down and go with one full time and one stay at home or part time. Let's say the lower income earner is making $100k. $20k-$40k post-tax money for daycare for child or two (going rate in high income areas for a nice place) is pushing that person to a net benefit of around $10/hr. Seems like the only people who continue to work both jobs are skewed toward the 1%'ers because they're actually still losing serious $ if they decide to pull out of the workforce.


I've been interested for a while in the disconnect between income statistics and the prevailing impression among urban professionals. I'm aware that median household income is ~$70k, but every full time professional seems to be taking home $120k+/year, with a target peak career income of $200k. Households earning at least $150k are completely average where I live (not SV), and I assume in every other US city these days.


The Millennial Urban Lifestyle Is About to Get More Expensive: As WeWork crashes and Uber bleeds cash, the consumer-tech gold rush may be coming to an end. (10/15/2019) ~ Economics

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Maybe we should have invested in some public transportation.


WeWork was always a scam and Uber isn't necessarily the world's best fiscal market indicator. There are a lot of new alternative mobility initiatives as well, such as electric scooters, or subscription-based car services.


There is a *really* interesting dynamic going on here that is just starting to be studied, but the gist is: the current private investment cycle is leading to pronounced disinflation pressures on the consumer end (disinflation is not deflation; disinflation is pushing down inflation, but not into negative land). The really interesting thing to me is that this this disinflationary pressure is the answer to the question: "where does the money from stock buybacks actually *go*?" Money leaves profitable companies via share buybacks and goes to institutional investors who then invest in the private startups - this is the core of the buyback cycle. And the net result is we get cheap shit. WeWork and Uber/Lyft are two more obvious examples, but you can point to just about any consumer company that's operating either 1) as a cash flow negative entity, or 2) operating a cash flow negative division. As an example of #1 we can look at hundreds (thousands?) of startups, but instead let's look at a seasoned company, Netflix: if you look at Cash from Operations less Capex (GAAP net income isn't valuable here), you'll see that they have been burning cash in the billions for *years* and have survived by issuing billions in debt; a NFLX subscription should cost 2x to 4x more for the company to truly break even. This is the area where you see the greatest impact of share buyback money - its funding NFLX's debt. But the same is true for all the 'Series X' rounds you see all the time, and that includes how Reddit funds itself. An example of #2 would be Amazon, Google, or Apple. Amazon is a *CASH* losing retailer/device maker/content studio who makes well over 100% of their *CASH* profit (not GAAP operating income) from AWS. Put differently, without AWS, Amazon would need to price retail things 5% to 10% higher to cover overhead expenses and everything else would be *way* more expensive. GOOG/AAPL similarly take the profits from one division (ads for Google and iPhones for Apple) to subsidize a lot of money losing ideas.


Even at their discounted price, the only one of these services I ever found enough value to warrant the cost for was Lyft/Uber. Tried Blue Apron for the promo period then cancelled. Personally I don't feel like I will be too effected, but this can have a pretty tough impact on the economy.


I feel like we (consumers) should send a big thank you letter to Softbank for giving us all this below-cost stuff for the last several years.


New study: Opioid crisis cost US economy $631B over 4 years (10/17/2019) ~ Economics

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Yes, but look how much profit was made!


Who carried out the study mentioned in this article? I may just be missing it but I couldn’t find a link to the reported study anywhere in the article.


I have a few issues with the conclusion. * Did they take into consideration the *benefits* if opioids? For example the people able to function and possibly work after surgery or those with chronic pain? * For the abusers, if opioids were taken away, wouldn't some significant percentage of people pursue other self destructive behaviors instead? Alcohol, meth, suicide etc? If meth heads switched over to heroin, is heroin truly to blame, or the behavior of an unstable person who just happened to choose one drug over another?


that seems wildly implausible. 631 billion over 4 years is almost 1% of GDP.


And now let's do the same math for alcohol and tobacco use.


A Guy on Reddit Turns $766 Into $107,758 on Two Options Trades (10/17/2019) ~ Investing

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In other news, 10,000 guys on reddit turned $1,000.00 into $25.00 trading options without understanding options.


Please, there’s a guy on reddit that turned $5K into -$58K in just one trade.


The reactions here are very different than on r/wallstreetbets...


Can they share how much he’s lost in his trading history?


I am slowly turning the first 20 years of my (disposable) working income into enough stock, bond, and cashflowing real estate assets to sustain an early retirement. It is a barely noticeable, slow change process, like most meaningful things in life. I am available for interviews.


Major life changes have trapped me in an expensive situation (10/19/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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If you can’t spend less, your only option is to make more. Consider second jobs nights and weekends (think: restaurant, retail, cleaning offices, deliver newspapers, whatever), freelancing/consulting if you have an in-demand skill (writing, editing, graphic artist, accountant, tax prep, tutoring, etc.), monetizing your hobby (woodworking/carpentry, selling art or handmade crafts, photography, community sports ref or coach, etc.), or random “odd jobs” (handyman, dog walking/pet sitting, shoveling sidewalks, etc.).


With the amount of credit card debt you already have, putting another $1000 on it to get the car fixed so you can get rid of it sooner will save you money in the long run. You're currently throwing away money on a car you don't need. Once you get rid of the car you'll be able to pay off that $1000 in less than 3 months with the money you're saving. If you're not driving the car, you should reduce your insurance to the state minimum. Depending on the state, you may be able to cancel your insurance if you register the car as non-operable.


Lots of responses about money already. You need to figure out why you keep getting laid off. Unless you're in a strange career, five times in eight years is too much and there may be something you can do to decrease the odds of it happening.


>A lot of this debt comes from the $44k I owe to a predatory private lender, at 7% interest. 7% is really not in the realm of "predatory" when it comes to student loans.


Is the $4,883 and $5,000 before or after tax? If before, what's your rough after-tax numbers? (Expensive areas often have high local taxes, too, so an estimate based on "normal" state is likely to be wrong...) Either way, the expenses you've listed here total to about $2,300; you should have a pretty penny left over after paying this and after taxes. Even if taxes were so much that your after-tax pay was just $3,500 each month, that's still $1,200 left, with all your bills listed out (except your credit card). That should leave plenty for groceries (stick to basics, and no/minimal eating out), other necessities (*necessary* clothes, hair, etc.), credit card payments, and more to chunk away at the credit card balance. The interest on the credit card balances has *got* to be killing you, getting those down should be #1 priority. No more charging anything to the credit cards, at all. Watch where every dollar goes. The SUV is expensive yeah, but you make enough to cover that; I expect it's $10 and $20 here and there that's adding up to be what's killing you. And try to get rid of the SUV for sure...but don't see it as the sole or even primary issue here; the $1,200 that's "misc"/unexplained is the bigger "issue", and bigger ability to address it.


Job overpaid me $400.00+. Now they want it back. (10/18/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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Go back and verify that you were in fact overpaid, but you don't get to keep money sent to you in error. There's nothing to "suck up" got an interest-free loan, and you repay it.


You owe then the money, that's the 1st thing. Doesn't matter who approved the error... it was an error. 2nd. Ask them if you can spread it out over 4 checks ($100x 4) or 8 checks ($50 x8) as it's going to be a hardship for you. I had to pay back a $900 error. Similar circumstances. Flipside- if they shorted your check by $400 and the same people signed off would you have just accepted that as a valid reason? No. So don't argue the payback. Just negotiate spreading it out.


1. You have to repay the money. 2. Moving forward, keep track of how many hours of OT you worked and know what you're paid. Before you approve your time-card, make sure it's correct.


The only thing I can suggest is negotiating to have it spread over 4 or more cycles to lessen the impact.


You owe them the money. Have them take it out of your paycheck(s), instead of cutting a check. You've very likely had taxes paid on that money already. Let them sort that out. (But verify they do it correctly).


Your money is not safe at Bank of America (10/20/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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I think most big banks are crooks. I was pulling into a Walgreens a few months ago in the town I live in, and I got a fraud alert asking if I was attempting to use my card to pay for a ride share service in New York. Of course I replied that I was not, and I didn't think anything of it for a few days after that. It showed up on my credit card, so I filed a dispute oh, and I was issued a temporary credit. A month or so later, I received a letter saying that the vendor had proven that it was a legitimate charge and they were reversing the credit. They asked me to fill out a form with any additional evidence I had. I wrote a letter and basically said that there was no way it was me using my card for a ride share service in another state, because minutes after that charge was made, I had used the card at my local pharmacy in my hometown, the email address used for the transaction did not match my email address, the mailing address did not match match my mailing address, and the name did not match my name. They did reverse the reversal and give me a credit after all, but my gosh that was ridiculous!


If you bank at BoA or Wells Fargo, you're going to (eventually) have a bad time.


This will likely be wildly upvoted because /r/personalfinance *loves* "big bank hate porn." However, I don't know that you would have had different results with a credit union. If someone shows up with your name on their ID, and the picture looks like them, even a credit union is not likely to find in your favor. Thats a lot of risk for someone to commit a felony for only $1,200. They didn't even hit another branch and drain your account.


Can someone explain what the virtual teller is? How does it check your ID? Is it in a physical location at a bank? Like the fortune tellers at carnivals?


I kicked their ( B of A) to the curb 12 years ago and joined a Credit Union. Best decision I ever made. B of A = bunch of crooks.


Netflix soars after beating on earnings. $1.47 vs. $1.04 expected. (10/16/2019) ~ Investing

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A bit unexpected. Hail Netflix!


Yeah I don’t feel like anyone has cancelled there subscriptions yet. Disney+ isn’t even out.


Free cash flow of negative 551 million. Impressive indeed.


How dumb can people be ? I am generally a netflix bull (and probably will continue to be one), but this quarter was just ok. Both revenue and subscriber grow missed slightly, which is ok-ish because the goals are somewhat agressive. After Q2 its not exactly great though. The high EPS is just because much of the expenses were shifted into Q4. You can probably expect a negative cash flow of 1500-2000 million then. Which, again, is ok, but not great.


Yeah... I still think it’s not a good decision to buy their stocks. But in the short term some people can make a lot of money.


US green economy’s growth dwarfs the fossil fuel industry’s Renewables, environmental, and efficiency industries grew 3x faster than fossil fuels. (10/21/2019) ~ Economics

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So a maturing industry grew faster than an mature industry. How is this news?


I mean. Yeah. Newer industries tend to grow faster than industries that have been around a while. Diminishing marginal returns and all that...


Title gore..


Emerging industries grow faster than centuries-old industries, news at 9


1 —> 2 = 100% increase 100 —> 101 = 1% increase


Ray Dalio says the world is in a ‘great sag’ and echoes the 1930s (10/18/2019) ~ Economics

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Ray Dalio sticks his hand out the window in a storm and says "It's raining".


Is this my daily "recession is coming" reminder?


I see us returning to trend growth 1.5%ish. As for the world, they’ll need to rely on themselves even more for new demand.


He's been saying that for what now... 5 years?


Yup and despite the post recession "Obama economy," the real animal spirits of economic expansion haven't been realized yet this cycle.


US imposes record $7.5 billion tariffs on EU goods, targeting wine and Airbus (10/18/2019) ~ Investing

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So if Britain leaves the EU, does that mean scotch prices will go back down?


Wait, why are we putting tariffs on Europe? wtf?


The Trump Tax increases continue. Everyone gushes over the tax cuts usually associated with GOP leadership, but we've had a huge change in that trend with this president. Edit: I'm going to start calling this the largest regressive tax change in US history. Massive income tax cuts covering corporations and the wealthy and massive tax increases on consumer goods.


So now I have to pay more for scotch AND WINE!? How am I going to afford to drink to forget our shitty administration? Edit: No tariffs on Russian Vodka, guess it's back to mules.


Assuming this applies to A320 aircraft, it would seem now is a bad time for airlines looking to expand/replace their fleets given that they haven't recertified the 737MAX yet. Given that narrow body 737s and a320s make up a big chunk of the US domestic jet routes, I wonder what's going on in airline boardrooms right now.


Troubles keep mounting for Fisher Investments as losses in pension assets hit $1.3 billion (10/19/2019) ~ Economics

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Those were hardly sexist comments if everything he said was quoted in the article. I wonder if these funds have some clause saying can leave with lower/no notice due to personal misconduct or something and are jumping on this.


This is the dumbest controversy I've ever heard of.


It sounds like there was more than just bad manners here - he was implying it was unwise for a money manager to talk about performance - implying it would be like going up to someone in a bar and saying “do you want to have sex?” But the activities are not comparable. Why was he being coy about his company’s numbers?


How is there any controversy over this at all? He was literally giving examples of shit you shouldn't do and I wouldn't even say that they're that rude at all. This PC shit is ridiculous at this point.


Yet theyre still advertising like they are the greatest thing since sliced bread!


Goldman warns buybacks are ‘plummeting,’ ending a big source of buying power for the market (10/21/2019) ~ Finance

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Yup. Growth to value rotation has already begun.


Any tips for basic investors? Buy more bonds, or high yield savings?


I’m so sick of this imagery on every single “negative” story about the market. You ever met a stock broker? They’re all narcissistic self focused buttholes, and many of them are criminals. Think about it, who here would relish in the opportunity for a free swing at Jim Cramer? I know I would.


Novice question... are a large amount of buybacks a good thing? Seems like they don’t really add any real value.


Just to be clear, buybacks are tax efficient dividends. They don’t in and of themselves change stock prices. They’re a signaling mechanism, sure, and they happen when cash is on hand, but they aren’t a legitimate driver of S&D.


With 74 companies reported the s&p earning growth is -3% (10/21/2019) ~ Investing

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It's not the same as GDP. Earnings is profits.


Expectations were for -5% so I suppose -3% seems to be a beat so far. Time will tell. Clearly the extremely low interest rates have us in an equity bubble. That doesn't mean that the bubble will pop, but it sure makes it seem like very long term equity returns will have a head wind based on how long it takes to get interest rates back to a more normal range.


That means stock market has far more room to go up once this number goes positive


YoY or sequentially? Any logical trade war explanations for the former (e.g. - Q3'18 was excessively strong b/c demand pulled forward due to the trade war)? Could be some seasonality if it's the latter.


Because expectations are set so low, any slight beat will moon the s&p.


Goldman Profit Drops 26% as Deals Slow, Tech-Stocks Struggle (10/15/2019) ~ Finance

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I thought the thumbnail was Bruce Willis


If these scoundrels can’t make money in the markets, How are we going to?


Friendship ENDED with Goldman, now JP Morgan is my best friend


Those poor poor people. Let’s lower their taxes.


The answer of course is to lay off thousands of low paid administrative employees. That will fix things.


Wild experience at work (10/17/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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In fairness it's going to be tough to get people to commit the full 10% with a mean salary of $40,080. Doubly so since the median salary is probably going to be down in the low $30s once you de-weight the executive LT. I mean ideally the guys making $30k would contribute something, but realistically it's not going to be in the cards for most of them.


I think emphasizing the fact that the 10% match is free money and is the employees' even when they leave would get more people to put something in. I think too many people are not told at all what a 401K is, how it works, etc and that makes them hesitant to put part of their livelihood into it.


My company does a 100% match up to the federal limit for employees ($20k). Pretty freaking sweet. You've inspired me to ask around and see how many are taking advantage of this. Edit: Found the financial statement for the end of last year. Comes out to $7k contributions per person for the year. With turnover and plan restrictions (can't contribute until you've worked 6 months) this seems reasonable to me. Interestingly, total employee contributions were $6k higher than total employer. I'm not really sure how that works.


My company actually defaults you to 3% contributions and you have to opt OUT if you don't want to put anything in.


Your employees average $40k. Depending on the area you're in, that could be just barely scraping by. If you're contributing $14k per year, or 1/3 of the average salary, it's not unreasonable to assume that the other highly compensated employees are the rest of the high contributors. Perhaps one or two others are secondary income earners for their household.


Black Swan? (10/21/2019) ~ Stock Market

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Am I living under a rock for not knowing anything about this?


In your opinion, why is this all happening? Excuse my ignorance of your country, but I thought you all were one of the more stable South American countries/economies. Is this really all about the rising train fares? Or has the entire country been going down hill for some time? Also I’d be interested to know what your news outlets are saying at this time, especially the government run ones.


This needs to be posted on r/worldnews


Seems like uprisings are happening all over the world right now - Hong Kong, Chile, Egypt, Iraq and i'm probably missing a few.


"Keep this in mind before the opening" The deadpan delivery of that line


US retail sales unexpectedly decline in sign consumer economy could be cracking (10/16/2019) ~ Investing

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Isnt that to be expected given we're in between summer and xmas? I've never once been in an industry where this is the busy retail season


i thought dollar stores were doing well


Why does this sub have such a hard on to find a recession?


does anyone else feel like the majority of reddit gets a US-doom boner ?


Lol. Record levels of retail store closures reported in 2019 - “unexpected”


Jared’s Jewelers opened a line of credit in my name when “Just checking if I’d be approved” US AZ (10/20/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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Call them. Kay jewelers did this to me too. Call. They can argue that you signed and blah blah blah but saying that they are checking approval is misleading. Just don’t stop until you get the result you want.


Salesmen are the worst. I went into a car dealership to test drive some options for the first time in my life and the guy got out a form and asked for some info. I figured it's reasonable because they're letting me drive their cars, but the form went on and on and eventually he asked for my SSN. I asked WTF is this form he's filling out: it's a loan application! We hadn't even looked at a car yet! Shameful.


As others have said, Kay did this exact same thing to me but mine was more complicated. I called to fight them and say I never approved opening of a line of credit. They were happy to help but couldn’t. The custom order ring I just ordered was charged to this line of credit instead of the credit card I handed them. Paid it off immediately and they still wouldn’t close it until the custom order came in. Custom order came in incorrectly weeks later. Had to wait for a do-over. Came in incorrectly again and I cancelled the whole thing and didn’t leave until I had money in hand. They closed my card in the store while I waited but couldn’t charge back to the card because I had paid it off and I wasn’t going to let them hold my money. Even if you are angry you need to be persistent and inconvenience them. Doing anything lazy or roundabout will just take longer or not get the full resolution.


Did you fill out an application and sign it? That would constitute approval in most cases if you weren't reading what you were signing.


I had a furniture shop do this too. I didn't fill out any paperwork, salesman said he'd run a credit check, then later tells me I was approved for 12k ( 7k on one card, 5k on a different one). I wasn't aware of how credit scores worked and didn't really think much into it. Probably should have disputed it but its been a couple years already and I never used the cards


Bezos will ‘break up his own company’ before regulators do, Atlantic writer who profiled the CEO predicts (10/15/2019) ~ Investing

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I think Amazon will spin AWS only if forced.


When the government broke up rockefeller's company, he went from being rich, to filty stinking rich, so I predict bezos does not mind


Its an interesting idea, I think Bezos will make his company easy to break up so that he gets to choose how it breaks up. But he wont actually do it without pressure.


As an Amazon shareholder I hate this idea. The huge profits from AWS make it possible for Amazon to take all kinds of risks elsewhere to create new successful business lines that one day may be profitable. The e-commerce business is very capital intensive and has low margins, so it is not ready to be its own business yet.


Amazon Healthcare Amazon Shopping/Logistics Network/Delivery Amazon Web Services I have more faith in Amazon offering customers affordable healthcare than the government.


Why Don’t Rich People Just Stop Working? Studies over the years have indicated that the rich, unlike the leisured gentry of old, tend to work longer hours and spend less time socializing. (10/17/2019) ~ Economics

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> “Once they have no financial need to work — are ‘post-economic,’ as some say in San Francisco — they have trouble shifting into lower gears,” Mr. Ferriss wrote. “They’re like drag racers who now have to learn to navigate the turns and intersections of neighborhoods at 30 miles per hour.” > “Without ambitious projects to fill space,” he added, “there is often a void that makes some of the bigger questions hard to avoid. The things you neglected are no longer drowned out by noise; they are the signal. It’s like facing the Ghost of Christmas Past.”


Part of it is that the work becomes more enjoyable as you get more money. Once you're financially independent, you have to take a lot less grief. If there's an aspect to your job you don't like, you don't have to just suck it up and take or worried about getting fired. You can express your displeasure or give it to someone else.


I think this is bizarre... Back in the day Keynes was talking about a future with 15 hour work weeks. How did our vision of a good society go from that to one where even the rich are compelled to spend most of their time working instead of enjoying life?


Took me 40 years to get rich enough to quit. Called retirement I think.


Because as a certain Lewis Carroll once write, you have to run twice as fast just to stay at the same place. Becoming rich doesn't make ppl lose their sense of self preservation. And once you're rich, a phobia of poverty arises, which makes one consider being rich as being equivalent to self preservation.


In a Strong Economy, Why Are So Many Workers on Strike? (10/20/2019) ~ Economics

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Because worker's share of profits is at it's lowest level since WWII?


You have more leverage when the economy's good. Makes perfect sense to me.


Because they have more ground to stand on. If profits are up and production is high, it's a fantastic time to ask for more pay/benefits/etc. When the economy is struggling and folks are getting laid off, that's not normally the time to demand more compensation. Just because the economy is strong, doesn't mean that the workers are getting "their fair share." Sometimes (often times) higher profits don't trickle down to the little guy. In some industries (like tech), worker mobility drives wage growth. IE, looking for a new job every 2-3 years to get significant raises. In the automotive industry, jumping jobs like that is not nearly as common or practical, so union negotiation, and striking, is their method of getting the wage increases.


"So many workers on strike" - Only one or two major unions on strike at any given time..... ​ Has the NY times even established that this is an abnormal amount of unions on strike? or did the author just read about the GM strike last week and decide to run with it? ​ Considering that a number of collective bargining agreements come up every year, one must assume that if X% of unions decide to strike, there will always be a strike every once in while.


Actually there haven't been a lot, the public sector are the ones striked the most like teachers. For private sector it's just a few times with hotels and some auto industry.


Recession announcements delays (10/21/2019) ~ Investing

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>3. The NBER announces, at some point, that we've been in a recession for the past year, we just didn't know it then. But now we know. Since the definition of recession is generally 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, this is the only way it can happen. Nobody can say that a recession started a month ago... well you could, but that'd just be a guess. Even if you go by some other definition, they all have in common that it's something that has been going on for a while.




Could we hold off on the recession for another year or so? I’ve been factoring my OT into my budget and it would hurt to lose that, or you know my job. Thanks all!


That's it, I just moved everything into BTC and gold.


Got it. Spy $190 puts it is.


China says its economy grew 6% in the third quarter, slower than expected (10/18/2019) ~ Investing

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They lie on their data like everything else.


Why don't these articles ever mention the fact that the data is most likely false?


oh THAT'S why futures dipped by about...... 5 basis points market is getting better and better about shrugging off bad news, feel good about S&P 500 @ 4,000 next year


Having zero respect for human lives is good for your economy appareantly


Is it safe to say that with the projections and statements coming from China, we should give them a 40% haircut and that’s where the truth (hopefully) falls under?


Netflix to Raise Another $2 Billion Through Debt to Fund Massive Content Spending (10/21/2019) ~ Investing

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this business model is absurd


They could also stop paying Adam Sandler $250 million for 4 crappy movies...that’d probably help a little


They need the content...not sure how it’ll all pan out. I’m cautiously avoiding their stock.


This is great news. I watch Netflix but I don't own it


With all these different subscriptions moving towards original content, it all becomes like tv but on the internet. Long $ pirating.


Parents said they’d take pay for vet bill, didn’t pay, and now vet sent bill to debt collector in my name. (10/21/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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If I were in your situation I would: * Ask your parents once more to pay the vet bill. Tell them it has gone to collections and that it is affecting your credit. * If that fails, pay the vet bill if you have the $500 available in your savings (to get it off your credit report). * Contact the vet and ask to close your account so your name is no longer tied to their dog (so they can't rack up further bills in your name in the future) * Never trust your parents with money issues in the future, and treat this as an expensive lesson. * Move out as soon as practicable.


Current debts aside, your parents shouldn’t own a pet they are unable or unwilling to pay for routine vet care for. You can choose if/how to tell them that, but that is the hard truth. Dogs can be expensive and even when perfectly healthy visits of $250-$600 are not unusual. Just a routine dental cleaning can be $800+. Six months’ heart worm and flea/tick is $125+. This is by no means ordinary but when one of mine was hit by a car, it was $12,000 over 14 months to get him back to normal. He was hardly in any real risk of death but costs add up. Shit happens, which is why I keep an emergency fund savings account strictly for my two dogs that is separate of personal and auto emergency fund accounts I have. Dogs will get sick, have ear infections, cysts, skin infections, swallow things they shouldn’t, step on broken glass, chew on something hard and break a tooth, and get stung by bees. These kinds of things are inevitable and the costs should be planned for and considered par for the course for any responsible dog owner to deal with every 2-3 years on top of preventative care like vaccines, flea/tick, dentals, and annual check ups. As others have said, plan to move out and distrust your parents in future financial decisions. Put credit freezes with each scoring agency because someone who will stick you with a debt like that may be prone to doing it again if they have easy access to your social. Your parents probably don’t rise to that level of fraud but they have certainly betrayed you here. You can try to contact the vet. Their options may be limited after it’s gone to collections but some vets will work with people on a case by case basis to at least offer payment plans, though they may have their hands tied by the collection agency. Ultimately it’s your parents’ responsibility to you, as well as a hard lesson learned about your responsibility for debts in your name. You should’ve received notices/bills prior to this going to collections and should’ve known it was outstanding in your name.


Yes. It will affect your credit score negatively when the collection agency reports it to the 3 credit bureaus. Also, that negative remark will stay on your credit file for upto 7 years. You should try talking to the collection agency and see if they’ll settle for a lower amount. I know you don’t have a job or any savings. But, try and get your parents to pay the lower amount (if agreed to by the collection agency.) I have never done this before, so I don’t know if this works. But, I have seen this being recommended on other similar questions. Good luck!


All the other answers are worth listening to, especially getting your name off the records at the vet and, if nothing else, seeing if you can make small monthly payments. Since you are 19 and an adult, you should set up a bank account or, preferably, a credit union account, far removed from your parents. Get a PO Box if you can't move out. Do this carefully, perhaps using your student address. Don't tell your parents about either. Get a job and don't tell them. Save money. If they find out and it means they don't pay for your education, that doesn't mean you have to end school. You can get a lot of financial aid if you are financially independent of your parents. Your school probably has counselors that can help. Or maybe a trusted professor. Your parents can't be trusted. It is difficult to not be honest with them, but, they are not being honest with you.


`full time community college student that doesn’t have any income because my parents don’t want me to have a job so I can “focus on school”` Maybe but it has the side effect of making you dependent on them and forcing you to put up with their bs such as ... `My dad recently got a puppy without telling anyone about it and kind of dumped all of the responsibility on me to take care of it.` Nice >.< - You could just say no but since you live at home and have no money, you're kinda stuck aren't you? Get a job, keep it secret, set up a bank account at a bank they don't use and sign up for paperless billing so stuff doesn't get sent to the house (maybe set up a po box for yourself or have the debit card sent to a trusted friend or relative) . `Next thing you know they do some lab work on the dog that ends up being around 500 dollars and my parents refused to pay it because they “only wanted to pay for the treatment and didn’t approve of the lab work”` Sigh. The labwork was likely needed to determine what exactly the infection was so they could administer the proper treatment. They can't give you a treatment unless they diagnose the problem. That should be obvious, but I've seen pet owners like this aplenty to know that they want a dog but none of the responsibility. I'd see if you can rehome it. I hate to suggest it but it's likely in doggos best interest if they won't care for it properly and you can't. `I don’t have a credit card, so will this affect my credit score?` You don't need a credit card to have a score. Everyone has to start somewhere ... and it sounds like you might be starting with an account in collections. Yikes. Even once paid off it will stay on for 7 years and can make getting any other credit to build up your profile really hard, especially if that's all you've had. `Is there a way that I can get out of this situation? What should I do?` Lots of good advice here but one thing that hasn't been mentioned is if you signed anything assuming financial responsibility. Your vet may differ but when I got my pets signed up with the vet, there was a form to sign where I stated I acknowledged I would be responsible for treatment. This was separate from their profile and the "owner" on file. Try disputing the debt, it might be that they're going after anyone they can, especially if you don't recall signing any such paper. Of course, if the validate it you do owe it. For future reference the way your parents "disputed" it isn't how it works ... a dispute is a challenge to the verifiable status of the debt (whether or not the charges are real, not if they're wanted). Not wanting to pay it doesn't mean you don't owe it. `I feel like I really got screwed over because my parents constantly told me they’d take care of it when I told them that they needed to pay it off but they didn’t.` Don't rely on your parents to uphold their word. In the future do not do these things for them. Freeze your credit with all 3 bureaus btw to keep your report safe from any unsavory activity in the event of identity theft.


Microsoft gives Satya Nadella a 66% raise, citing ‘strategic leadership’ (10/16/2019) ~ Stock Market

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Most CEOS that are getting raises probably don't deserve a raise but this guy absolutely deserves it. Literally pulled Microsoft out of a slump, changed its reputation, more innovative with surface tablets, windows 10, and now re-entering phone market with Android OS. This company will do big things in the future.


What everyone seems to be missing is that the the 66% increase in base salary is increasing it from $1.5 million to $2.5 million. Which is basically nothing for a CEO of a major company. It’s all about his stock awards. He makes like $70 million a year from those. He’s not going to take home 66% more next year than he did this year unless Microsoft stock keeps grinding higher.


Nadella is worth the raise.


Deserves every penny


As an apple user because of Nadella's strategy the last few years is the first time in almost 15 years i've reconsidered getting a windows device for my next PC instead of another Mac. In that same vein I also purchased MS stock for the first time this year and have been reaping the rewards. Keep up the good work Nadella.


What stonks are you looking at for next week? (10/18/2019) ~ Stock Market

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eBay. I sold a few things from my shop recently, so their earnings should get a nice boost.


Next week is gonna be wild


How has nobody commented yet about stonks? This is my favourite typo of the week.




Why Rich Guys Get Richer Off of Debt—While the Rest of Us Can Get Crushed by It (10/18/2019) ~ Economics

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The rich go into debt in order to invest in projects with high returns. Borrow $10 million at 7% interest to invest in a pipeline with a 9% yields. The poor borrow money to fuel short term consumption. Borrow $100 at 32% interest because you need to pay a heating bill. These aren't remotely similar in any way and it's absurd that any system would treat the two as equivalent risk.


Author admits he doesn't understand debt in the first few paragraphs.


Is this not an economics sub? What is this garbage of an article?


This article is garbage. The author conflates personal loans with asset-backed loans, glosses over the fact that a good fraction of student debt is voluntary and unnecessary, and accepts the comparison of borrowing cash from a lord during feudalism to modern borrowing under the fractional reserve system. Opinions are seldom logic and are never facts.


Misleading headline, and the author sounds like an idiot, to wit: >And then you have rich fuckers like Jared Kushner and his father-in-law taking on millions upon millions in debt (and that’s just the debt we know of) while still sitting pretty (at least, for now) Garbage.


Credit Union Permanently Closed All Accounts With Positive Balance (10/20/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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There is something fishy going on that you are not telling us. If I had to guess, your account is being investigated for something which is why they aren't giving you a reason


Lack of replies from op is quite suggestive..


my best guess is they closed your account for one of two reasons- 1) Youve filed a high number of chargebacks and your bank has had it. they reimbursed the people you owe and are deducting it from whatever you had in the account. 2) You did something illegal with your account ie wirefraud or depositing fraudulent checks How many times in the last 2 years have you filed a chargeback? If they arent giving you answers that means there is an investigation and possible cooperation with authorities.


Theres something not right about this story. Its not legal for a financial institution to close your account and keep the money that was in it. Is there something else you left out of your story that you care to share?


Yeah, they can’t arbitrarily steal your $840. I would read the deposit account agreement and either take them to arbitration or small claims court. Edit: was the $840 garnished? Do you have unpaid bills/taxes/child support? Banks will sometimes close garnished accounts because processing legal orders is very expensive. If the $840 was garnished, you won’t get it back.


In which SEC filing can an investor see how much voting power a shareholder has? (10/20/2019) ~ Investing

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Schedule 13-D


>Because if he doesn't have then he could be fired as both the CEO and Chairman by Capital Research & Management Co. who currently owns 20% Votes usually go by majority. So even if they had 49% of the voting rights they would still need another 2% to fire the CEO.


A CEO can only be fired by the board of directors, not an individual shareholder. Members of the board of directors are typically elected by a plurality vote, that is, those who get the most votes win, even if not a majority. The annual meeting proxy statement (found on the SEC EDGAR web site) has some information on stock ownership.


The Q’s and Annual Report show the number of common and preferred shares outstanding as well as the ownership of five percent or more, and the voting rights ascribed to each. The company’s founding documents are informative, too and can be pulled from the web site of the Secretary of State in which the company is incorporated.


This subreddit is retarded.


Schwab, in Bid for Younger Clients, to Allow Investors to Buy and Sell Fractions of Stocks (10/17/2019) ~ Investing

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M1 Finance?


Interesting. It makes sense. Many brokers allow fractional share ownership through DRIP. Allowing for the purchase of fractional shares would be the next logical step. However since they are offering commission free trades what is business point of offering this? Lets be honest, those of us with the account size interested in fractional purchasing aren't going to be having the funds on the side they make money from to warrant this being worth it. Maybe they were tired of market share being taken from the investing app companies like Acorn and RobinHood


I am glad I transferred my Robinhood account to Schwab


Reminds me of Merrill Lynch's Sharebuilder program. Back in the 70's I was able to buy fractional shares with dividends reinvested. This program also allowed me to buy silver in dollar amounts. They did charge a commission, either 4 of 5%. When they discontinued the program I sold the fractional shares and took most of the rest in paper shares. I still have a couple dozen paper certificates and have been doing dividend reinvestments directly with the companies. I couldn't take delivery of the silver, though. For me, a pretty young investor at that time, MLPF&S's Sharebuilder program did set me on a path of life-long investing which I've much enjoyed and profited from.


Is the IRS making special rules to cover this? I’m imagining if I buy 10% of AMZN, Schwab buys one share and just remembers I “own” part of it. And when I sell, Schwab might decide to sell the backing share. But who pays the capital gains tax? Does schwab pay their gain when it sells the backing share, or I pay my gains on the 10%? If we both pay wouldn’t the IRS be collecting the tax twice?


Dad bought a new SUV two months ago and is now in hospice (10/18/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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> Once that ceases my sister will then be responsible for payments from my understanding. Debt doesn't transfer on death. The car, and its associated debt, will become part of the estate. If the estate doesn't have enough assets to cover its liabilities, then any remaining debt is wiped away. Any assets such as the car itself would need to be sold in order to pay toward the debt; but if it's not enough, then tough luck for the lender. It doesn't become your debt. Some creditors take advantage of people who don't understand this and demand payment. Do *not* pay any of your dad's creditors from any of your own accounts that are not his (or his estate's), or that debt *could* then legally become yours.


>Once that ceases my sister will then be responsible for payments from my understanding. Nope. That POA terminates on his death. Whomever is then the executor of your father's estate is responsible for paying the deceased's debts with the estate's holdings, **not** the executor's personal holdings.


If your sister did not co-sigh she will Not be responsible the estate will. Why not just sell it for what ever you can and be done with it.


As others said, estate is liable for the car. If you do nothing, lender repossesses the car, puts it up to auction, bills estate for the deficit. If the estate is broke, then the debt goes into a black hole. If the estate is broke, do this. if the estate has substantial assets where you believe it would be able to pay the deficit, it may be prudent to sell the car now, and cover the deficit out of your fathers current cash assets. The car car will only depreciate from here, and if no one is driving it, thats just lost value. better to rip off the bandaid now than to accrue another 6 months of depreciation and interest.


Call and cancel all of those warrenties. They will resist, but you can get a refund for most of that cost. Maybe that will close the depriciation gap? Not sure.


Goldman wants traders to be more like dealmakers and coders (10/18/2019) ~ Finance

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Maybe I’m stereotyping but aren’t the personality traits of coders and dealmakers at opposite ends of the spectrum?


Translation: we shit the bed this quarter and need the media to focus on something else. They’re learning from Elon. If you say some vague avant-garde sounding BS, people will forget about your real problems


1. That username lol 2. This seems highly unlikely as more than PR. The fact of the matter is sales/traders are driven by relationships above all else, even in this day and age. If it weren't, GS would be a commodity.


Every company on earth is rebranding themselves as "tech" companies that do something. "Hi, this is Generic Pizza Franchise ABC! We are a technology company that makes pizza!"


I’m just gonna VPN in so I can dealmake


New York Fed Injects $104.15 Billion in Short-Term Liquidity (10/18/2019) ~ Economics

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I’m not as informed as I should be when making this comment, but doesn’t this mean that Banks used a lot of their cash to buy Treasury bonds only to not have enough leftover to comfortably lend overnight?


The only reason we are not in a recession is bc the administration is pumping billions into economy through various emergency subsidies. Even w this, the Fed is still having to put in billions more. It's no wonder the federal deficit is growing at it's fastest rate since the 2007 recession. The current administration is artificially propping up the economy and taxpayers will foot the bill.


New York Fed Injects $104.15 Billion in Short-Term Liquidity Intervention came in two parts—a term-repurchase-agreement operation that will last 15 days and a one-day repo operation for The Wall Street Journal By Michael S. Derby Updated Oct. 17, 2019 9:56 am ET The Federal Reserve Bank of New York injected $104.15 billion in temporary liquidity into financial markets Thursday. The intervention came in two parts. One was via a term-repurchase-agreement operation that will last for 15 days that added $30.65 billion. The other was via a one-day repo operation that totaled $73.5 billion. Fed repo interventions take in Treasury and mortgage securities from eligible banks in what is effectively a loan of central bank cash, collateralized by dealer-owned bonds. Last month, the Fed ramped up its repo operations for the first time in over a decade to help tame spiking short-term borrowing costs. This week there has been some upward pressure in short-term rates, which some observers have attributed to the settlement of Treasury debt auctions and other factors. The effective fed funds rate has been, at 1.90% on Wednesday, trading toward the higher end of the fed’s range of 1.75% to 2%. On Wednesday, the Fed also began buying large amounts of Treasury bills to help expand the size of its balance sheet as part of a longer-term solution for money-market volatility. Write to Michael S. Derby at


There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved. -Ludwig von Mises.


Just waiting for the resident poster that comes in here to belligerently scream and type essays that everything is okay.


Think young people are hostile to capitalism now? Just wait for the next recession. (10/17/2019) ~ Economics

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Tbh a healthy recession that clears out some excesses (e.g. tech bubble) and inefficiencies (e.g. kill off more retail) would be welcome.


Probably sometime in the next 18-24 months if indicators are right.


Any discussion about capitalism vs. socialism seems to quickly degenerate into a discussion of what the words themselves mean. The most ardent defenders of "capitalism" in my lifetime have seemed like they won't be satisfied by anything less than a return to the Gilded Age, and they decry anything else as "socialism". I'd be happy with a lot of systems that could fairly be described as capitalism, and unhappy with many that could reasonably be called socialism, but if we go by the definitions prevalent in American political discourse, then hell yes, I want to burn capitalism to the ground and replace it with socialism.


A broken clock is right twice a day


All goes according to plan...


So You Make $100,000? It Still Might Not Be Enough to Buy a Home. (10/15/2019) ~ Economics

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No duh. It's a subscription, so I only read the first 2 paragraphs, but this is obvious stuff. She lives in an "affluent" section of an expensive city. Lots of people want to live in those sections of those cities. As a result, single family homes are expensive. How is this interesting?


Moral of the story: live some place you can afford. Big city life comes with big city prices.


Part 1: Oct. 15, 2019 10:30 am ET DENVER—For Janessa White, the American dream of a red brick house on a tree-lined street blocks from a good elementary school remains obtainable. She just has to rent it. Ms. White and her boyfriend moved with her 7-year-old son from Missouri to Denver last year. In Missouri, Ms. White owned her home, which she bought for a little over $100,000. To buy a house like the one she rents in Stapleton, an affluent section of the Colorado capital, would cost about four times as much. Even though her household’s income is in the low six-figures, homeownership is daunting in Denver. “It’s hard not to want to buy,” she said. “Saving for a huge down payment seems almost impossible.” Ms. White’s household is part of a growing camp: high-earning Americans who are renting instead of buying homes. In 2019, about 19% of U.S. households with six-figure incomes rented their homes, up from about 12% in 2006, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of Census Bureau data that adjusted the incomes for inflation. The increase equates to about 3.4 million new renters who would have likely been homeowners a generation ago. Janessa White, shown with her son Owen Yake, 7, rents a house in Stapleton, an affluent Denver neighborhood. PHOTO: RACHEL WOOLF FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL “I can’t think of anyone we’ve rented to recently who didn’t make $100,000,” said Bruce McNeilage, who owns 148 rental homes around the Southeast and is building 118 more. As more people forgo Homeownership, there is a risk that America’s already-wide wealth gap gets worse. Home-price appreciation has historically been the way most middle-class Americans accumulated wealth. When real-estate values rose steadily in the decades after World War II, middle-class wealth surged, according to a new analysis of consumer survey data from the University of Michigan going back to the late 1940s. “Houses are the democratic assets, roughly half of housing wealth is owned by the middle class,” said Moritz Schularick, a professor of economics at the University of Bonn and one of the authors. It isn’t unusual for high-earners to rent in pricey coastal cities like New York and San Francisco, where sky-high real-estate prices have long limited homeownership. Yet these markets account for less than 20% of the new six-figure renters, according to the Journal’s analysis. To accommodate well-off renters, developers have raced to erect luxury apartment buildings around city centers. Investors, meanwhile, have bought hundreds of thousands of suburban houses to turn into rentals and are increasingly building single-family homes specifically aimed at well-heeled tenants. The average tenant of the country’s two largest single-family landlords, Invitation Homes Inc. and American Homes 4 Rent, now earns $100,000 a year, the companies say. These companies own some 133,000 houses between them in attractive neighborhoods with good school districts around growing cities, like Houston, Denver and Nashville, Tenn. In each of those cities as well as in Seattle, Cincinnati and Ann Arbor, Mich., the number of six-figure renters doubled or better between 2006 and 2017, making them the fastest-growing segment of renters in these markets, according to the Journal’s analysis. During that period, which began just before the housing market imploded in 2007, the number of renter households in the U.S. grew 25% while the number of homeowners was nearly flat, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Since 2017 home buyers have started returning to the market, but not nearly enough of them to offset the decade of new renters. Ms. White and Owen ride bikes at the local elementary school. PHOTO: RACHEL WOOLF FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL


So you make $500,000? It Still Might Not Be Enough to Buy a 2-Story apartment in Manhattan


Part 2: The big home-rental companies are betting that high earners will continue renting. Bankrolled by major property investors like Blackstone Group Inc., Starwood Capital Group and Colony Capital Inc., these companies snapped up foreclosed houses with the expectation of renting them to educated workers who could afford to pay a lot every month but perhaps not buy. “Very early in this business, we figured out that the cost to replace the HVAC unit is, for the most part, the same on a $1,200 or $1,300 rental as it is on $1,800 or $1,900 rental,” said Dallas Tanner, chief executive and a founder of Invitation Homes. Six-figure earners tend to be more consistent rent payers, too. Car troubles or a sick child don’t cost them hours at work and income like they can for many lower earners. High earners also tend to stay put and are willing to absorb regular rent increases if it means not having to move their children to new schools. That translates to lower turnover and maintenance costs for the landlords. “These tenants are treating our houses as if they are their homes,” American Homes CEO David Singelyn said at a real-estate investment conference this summer in New York. Invitation and American Homes have reported record occupancy and rent growth as well as ever-growing retention as their average renters’ income has risen into six-figure territory. The phenomenon is being felt down the line in the rental-home business and has prompted a rush among investors to buy and build family-sized rental houses around growing cities. Investors, a mix of big and small landlords and house flippers, accounted for more than 11% of U.S. home sales in 2018, their highest share on record, according to CoreLogic Inc. A $100,000 income is still comfortably in excess of the median U.S. household income, which was $63,179 in 2018, according to the Census Bureau. But many Americans these days are mired in debt. They have car payments, credit-card debt, health-care bills and college loans. Student debt is particularly vexing for the younger Americans who are starting families. There is a connection between student loans and the housing bust, which isn’t lost on young home buyers. Many students took out loans because the housing crisis wiped out the equity in their parents’ homes that would have helped pay for college. Since then the amount of student debt outstanding has tripled, to more than $1.6 trillion. A couple of years ago Fannie Mae, the government-sponsored mortgage giant, made it easier for borrowers with higher debt levels to qualify for a mortgage, though recently Fannie tightened its lending standards. One of the amenities at Pradera in San Antonio is a community swimming pool. PHOTO: BRONTE WITTPENN FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Despite the concession, and low unemployment, the homeownership rate remains stuck about a percentage point below its long-term average of 65% and well below the peak of 69% reached during the last housing bubble. In the second quarter, there were 78.5 million owner-occupied housing units compared with 43.9 million that were rented, according to the Census Bureau. Those who do want to buy a home face the additional hurdle of high prices that have surged beyond the reach of even relatively high earners in cities with strong jobs growth. Prices in 75 of the country’s 100 largest metro areas have surpassed their precrash highs, not adjusting for inflation, according to mortgage data and analysis firm HSH. Many of those cities, such as Salt Lake City and Raleigh, N.C., also have some of the fastest growth in high-paying jobs. The sharpest recovery, according to HSH, has been in Denver, where home prices have doubled since 2012 amid an influx of California tech workers and New York finance firms. Prices are nearly twice their precrash high. It takes an annual household income of about $90,000 to afford Denver’s median-priced house, which costs around $471,000, according to HSH. But that is assuming buyers have 20%, or about $94,000, for a down payment. “The lack of savings for a down payment in this country is grossly underestimated,” said John Pawlowski, a housing analyst at Green Street Advisors, who estimates that the typical renter’s net worth is about $5,500. “Consumer balance sheets are not good.” In Stapleton, where Ms. White lives, the typical household income is more than $135,000. Tom Cummings, whose company manages some 240 rental homes in the neighborhood, said his typical tenant is a two-income family with children, drawn by the neighborhood’s top-rated schools. Some are recent transplants unsure if they’re staying long-term. Others can’t afford to buy, he said. Houses can be effective wealth builders because most people borrow most of the purchase price. That leverage magnifies gains when prices are rising, but also increases losses when they fall. That explains the big decline in household wealth in the financial crisis and why people are less excited about owning a home today despite otherwise steady appreciation over the decades. Invitation’s Mr. Tanner likens attitudes toward rental homes to those of leased autos. “Twenty years ago people thought about leasing a car and it was like a bad word. Everyone wanted to own a car,” the 39-year-old CEO said. “Today nobody cares.” In fact, the idea that homes can lose significant value means people may treat them more like cars, which lose value every year. According to a survey by mortgage finance company Freddie Mac, just 24% of renters said it was “extremely likely” that they would ever own a home, down 11 percentage points from four years ago. Jacob Neuberger, a 30-year-old who works in Denver for an investment firm, considered buying when he moved out of his one-bedroom downtown apartment. He and his girlfriend opted to rent a townhouse for $2,700 a month. The one next door sold for $550,000. Mr. Neuberger estimated that his costs to own would be about 20% higher than renting and that he would need the townhouse to appreciate by about 10% to cover transaction costs if he needed to sell to buy a bigger home or if he had to move for work. “The price appreciation can’t go on forever,” he said. Kenneth Robinson, 37, who serves in the U.S. Air Force, decided to rent at Pradera until he deploys to Japan. PHOTO: BRONTE WITTPENN FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Madeline Smith, an executive assistant for a local real-estate investor, and her boyfriend, who works in real-estate development, nearly bought a house in Denver two years ago. They had made a quick decision to offer about $25,000 above the asking price under pressure of a bidding deadline. At the inspection, they started adding up the expenses for repairs and upkeep. “The yard was beautiful, ” Ms. Smith, 29, said. “But who takes care of it? Do we have to come home and take care of it or hire someone? That’s more money.” The couple backed out and she instead traveled abroad for a few months. When she returned, they rented a luxury apartment downtown and are waiting for asking prices to come down.


Why do some investors take companies private? (10/19/2019) ~ Investing

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If you think a company is worth $10M but the market only values it at $5M you might buy some shares. If a PE firm sees a struggling company that the market values at $5M, but they think with their managerial expertise, capital to invest, and patience, they can raise the valuation to $50M, they might just buy the entire company and do that.


An example is that Dell wen private in 2013. Dell was founded when computers were often sold at 40% margin in the 90s. By the end of the 2010s computer makers were in a "race to the bottom" with razor thin margins on $300 consumer PCs. If Dell kept competing that way they wouldn't be able to please their shareholders every quarter so they took the company private. Dell was in a unique position to go private because Michael Dell wanted to do it and had billions in wealth he could use to do so. He only had to get an investment firm to put up the other 25% of the value. Michael Dell returned as CEO and made changes to the workforce and organization. While they were private they invested in new product, moved their B2B business to channel-based rather than direct sales, and focused on servers and business computers. They also bought EMC during this period. These projects took a lot of time and cash that investors would not have been patient with. We know Dell felt that way because after completing these projects and returning profit and growth, they went public again.


> I have read somewhere that when a company is taken private it can focus on long term goals instead of quarterly earnings If the company is privately owned, they can do whatever they want. If they want to run the company into the ground and then spin off the dried out husk, there will be no shareholder backlash. You will see that a lot (not all) companies that go private are already profitable, and are bought as investments by private equity firms that have billions and billions of dollars to spend. Capital is not an issue.


Others have made great points, but I feel the greatest advantage is that they don't need to jerkoff their shareholders. This is particularly valuable if the company or CEO or industry is a lightning rod for controversy. I feel apologizing to your shareholders over bullshit can be distracting. Having them constantly harrass over because they are afraid of public opinion would likely be obnoxious. You might still have to deal with randoms being upset with your company, but being private let's you legit say "they aren't important enough or they won't impact our bottom line" whereas investors may disagree


You’re assuming that if there are less requirements for financial statements then there will no financial statements. That is not true. If a PE group spends 30 bucks on a public company which they take private, they are most certainly going to maintain financial statements.


Tesla raises prices on standard Model 3 (10/17/2019) ~ Stock Market

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The price increase also came with a 10 mi increase in range, from 240 mi to 250 mi


I already thought it was 40k, not 39. Or rounded up in my head, if I was buying it wouldn’t make a difference.


It won’t have an effect unless demand changes. The $1k price raise won’t put people off a Tesla in my opinion


Still waiting for the $35k version..


Does anyone know how this is going to affect the stock price? Will it be taken positively or negatively?


Mortgages: 40-year terms are becoming the norm (10/19/2019) ~ Economics

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The "norm?" Not sure I agree. The 30yr fixed is the backbone.


If this puts people in homes that would otherwise be renting I guess it might be a good thing, but it’s probably just going to let people buy homes they wouldn’t be able to afford. This plus low rates and the trend of people putting less down is a recipe for over leverage


So that headline is a lie


Car loans have basically doubled in length (from 3 or 4 years to 7 years), so this wouldn’t exactly be unheard of. Still, I’m in California where this would make sense, and I’ve yet to hear of anyone getting a 40 year mortgage.


When I moved to Sweden (from the rather risk averse Germany) I was shocked that 50 years is normal and that once under 80% a lot of people don’t pay mortgages at all but just the interest. Explains how the bubble could get that large.


China Unexpectedly Injects $28 Billion of Cash as Growth Slows (10/16/2019) ~ Investing

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The Chinese version of an overnight repo


Is this QE or is this just the same as the Feds injecting $50b a day with their normal operation?


Basically QE cuz you can guarantee this shit will happen again next month and they’ll keep rolling it


Yeah, something is really, REALLY not right here...


the good old keynessian bubble


21 Best-Performing S&P500 Stocks of the 21st Century (10/17/2019) ~ Stock Market

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Thanks for putting this together for us. Much appreciated.


> what do they all have in common? Nothing. Nada. Zilch. Zip. Zero. Bugger all.


Very Interesting! Nice Work!!






Boeing survey showed that employees felt pressure from managers on safety approvals (10/20/2019) ~ Stock Market

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“The survey, given to employees willing to take a survey that could potentially damage their company, found the exact same ‘undue pressure’ in literally every other multibillion dollar manufacturing companies. Our next story will also take a well known issue caused by human nature and incentive structures and attempt to tie it to specific corporate problems to get retailers to panic sell.”


This is just status quo for big corporations especially those associated with large national infrastructure or prominent manufacturing projects. These large companies aremgovered by A type mangers and executives whose role is all about getting their career ahead, and as a manager/executive your role is to lead , but effective leadership, wall street quarterly pressures, union rules constraints create an atmosphere that leads to decisions like Boeing's. I think this is a case where all those in authority who signed off on the max, should face criminal prosecution up and down the chain of command, not saying it need to be years imprisonment, but some real consequences, let's not just chalk this up to business as usual.


I live in the Wichita area and have family in the aircraft industry. The political turmoil that runs through to companies through different checklists and procedures that managers and workers have to go through because of the union and company rules are insane. It’s no wonder these people feel stressed on a daily basis.


Next story, Water is wet!


Always something else with boeing


Job contributes 6% to 401k even if I don’t, should I contribute or do Roth IRA? (10/16/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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If you're determined to do retirement contributions while paying off your credit cards, then I would make your contributions in this order. 1. 401k -Minimum amount to get the maximum employee match from your employer. From what you said, this is $0. 2. IRA -The maximum amount you can contribute to your IRA. This is $6,000, unless you're over 50 years old. 3. 401k -Throw the rest in here until you hit the yearly cap. My reasoning is as follows. Unless your employer offers very good 401k options, they'll be sub-optimal compared to what you can get from an IRA, as you have the freedom to pick the absolute best IRA. However, you want to get the most you can out of your employer match before putting money into your IRA, because the IRA's advantage isn't going to outweigh doubling or increasing your contribution half-again instantly unless your 401k plans really suck.


You said that your credit card debt is a few thousand $, and split between 0% and another card that will be paid off in a few months. If you put $1500 towards paying off your interest-charging CC sooner (paid off in a few months, 6?), we're talking saving maybe $100-150 in interest (at your card rate of 15-20%?) if you paid it off sooner. It is an effective savings of approximately half your CC's annual interest rate (6 months benefit, and decreasing slightly along the way. I haven't calculated exactly because it's not quite linear -- you're not paying off $1500 all at once in the beginning). Putting that money aside instead by payroll deduction (pre-tax) saves you tax of ($1500 x your marginal tax rate) -- let's estimate it at 22% for filing jointly, and will benefit you $330. You get a whole year's benefit on that money. Other info might change these estimates (like deductions, other items that change your effective tax bracket). Given the info I might choose to put it in 401k. Note that Roth does not get you any tax benefit today, you will pay tax on the income, but pay on the gains later.


(1) Employee Match > (2) Tax Advantaged Retirement Account > (3) Taxed Investments Paying off interest earning debt falls between steps (1) and (2) if it's high interest (CC), or between (2) and (3) if it's low interest (student loan). Though apparently you're not taking advice on that one. The easy play is to just pay off the interest earning CC using the 0% CC and the 2K efund. Also should point out, there's no point in saving an Efund while credit cards are open, in the case of an emergency all spending will come from the credit card anyways. You're paying CC interest to have the luxury of debt, while simultaneously maintaining a balance to avoid debt. But whatever, moving on. Sidebar recommends 3-6 months expenses in an Efund, you're not there, can shoot for that. Sidebar also recommends 15% of income into retirement, and usually employer contributions don't count, those can be ignored. Your 20% to savings doesn't count towards this as "travel" and robinhood are basically fun money. To sum up, ignoring CC debt, general advice is to get a solid Efund. Next contribute 15% of salary to a tax advantaged retirement account, this is the Roth first as you'll get better fund options. With your salary, 15% means maxing the Roth and adding 5% to the 401k. Everything else going towards travel or Robinhood is up to you.


Me too - job contributes 10% whether or not I match. My plan is to pay off debts first, then max out HSA that I self manage, then contribute to pretax IRA that I self manage. If I still have $ left, I may add to 401k. Generally not impressed by 401k funds so I've only put in enough to get the match in prior roles since IRA can buy individual stocks, no load funds, etf, whatever I want.


Put enough in your HSA/FSA to cover your health insurance deductible (or preferably your max out of pocket amount, if you want to keep from having to touch personal savings at all due to a health issue). Put at least 6% of your own money into the 401k to match what the company contributes


Morgan Stanley Is Bullish on Microsoft Because IT Departments Love It (10/18/2019) ~ Stock Market

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$$$$$$!!!!!! Nadella earned his pay bump.


None of IT people I talked to like Win 10. O365 is a total nightmare.


Very interesting write up, Good read. Always thought microsoft was low-key kinda on the way out however this reshapes their image at least to me. 37% in one year, Now that's something.


My IT department hates Microsoft, and Teams is garbage. Slack all day baby!


Coming from someone in the industry, Microsoft is here to stay. The simple fact that corp & mid sized businesses can streamline the transition of their existing active directory to an Azure based system is huge for retention. Many corporations are built on active directory, roaming profiles and the like. The ability to take the exact same setup you currently are using and put it in the cloud with more features is a no brainer for any salaried IT staff. Another thing, if you're familiar with managed service providers or "MSP" you will know the entire tech industry is migrating in that direction, term based service and software packages. We no longer buy perpetual licenses the entire structure is geared towards O365, Antivirus, cloud back-up management and monthly subscription fees. You are hiring an IT person to manage and update your subscriptions now, not fix your computer when a card or software fails. The thing about Microsoft, you can look at pretty much every single one of their products and find a better replacement for a lower cost. But what you can't do is have them all integrate as well as Microsoft does on a corporate level. Nobody has nor will come close to Microsoft in that regard and that is the key to their success year after year.


Poverty in America has long-lasting, destructive consequences on children (10/21/2019) ~ Economics

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Kind of silly that scientists needed to create experiments to figure that one out


Can’t get the rest of the article, but.. what’s the solution? Take kids from poor and uneducated and move them to wealthy households?


" critics who think that poverty results from a defective character concede that poor children, all 13m of them in America today, are not to blame for their plight" Citation. Needed. IQ is both so strongly heritable and so strongly correlated to income that "poverty causing long lasting effects" is one hell of an assumption. It's /plausible/ that poverty causes long-lasting negative effects, but it's equally /plausible/ that low IQ caused those long lasting negative effects. If anything IQ is a better explanation because it'd account for negative outcomes exhibited by poor babies adopted into wealthy families, and because it'd be prima facie strange for negative outcomes to persist for poor people who acquired a windfall (if poverty lead to negative outcomes, winning the lottery or similar wouldn't end so badly so often).


A sober brawl; Alcohol firms promote moderate drinking, but it would ruin them – A sober brawl (10/20/2019) ~ Economics

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Yeah no shit. But the reason it would ruin them is that they have built themselves up to where they need the demand from abusers to sustain their production. There's nothing about markets that requires this, it's just a current stable equilibrium. We could adapt to a low drinking or no drinking culture without noticing much as an economy


Not sure how it is in America, but the way they schmooze up to bartenders in aus really promotes a hard culture of drinking 24/7. Tastings, trainings, flights, all designed to load them up and get them selling as much as possible to as many as possible. It’s not sustainable and it’s not healthy


So, the lancet recently did a study that determined that there was no safe level of alcohol. My problem with these studies that include everything from domestic violence to dui, etc, is that it makes it impossible to *just* look at the health effects of drinking. I drink at home, in moderation, and am responsible. It's impossible for me to isolate health effects and determine what level of drinking is safe for me. I don't know how to un-grind that sausage.


They have to promote "Drink Responsibly" or they'll get the Big Tobacco treatment.


Former and sometimes alcoholic here. 90% of the alcohol industries sales come from 10% of the customers..and believe me when I say these are VERY loyal customers. There is probably some variance in those numbers...but the 90/10 rule of business still applies.


House Poor – suggestions? (10/19/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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It's obviously *less expensive* to sell and downsize into something more affordable. You said it yourself: "It's bigger than we need", "the house eats up the vast majority of my income". "It's just so hard to save or get ahead when so much of my income is going to the house!" But, you don't want to sell, either. " I love my home", "we love the community/location", "I don't want to move." So far, it sounds like your best bet is to stay there and put all your money into the house, because you love it.


I would rent out a room to a female college student (since you have a teen daughter)


I grew up in a household where parents were house poor and I vowed to never get into that situation again; my mortgage is low just with my own salary, it's dirt cheap adding in my wife's. I don't see a reason to have what sounds like a large house for 2 people, one of whom will likely move out soon. Housing is a fickle market and there's no guarantee it'll be worth tomorrow what it is today. Personally I would seriously consider downsizing. I don't really consider real estate to be great investments, but if you lean that way there's no reason not to view the next house as such as well.


I don't like being house poor but......Don't you dare sell that house. Everyone that doesn't live in Washington has no idea what they are talking about. Where would you live? Its impossible in Seattle. The "your house coud devalue" folks are full of shit. So could your goddamn index fund. Invest in the house. Consider selling it when you retire and moving somewhere else. You "stole" a house in one of the best real estate markets in the country. Be proud of that. If you work in the Seattle area you do everything you can to make it work. This should be a "over my dead body" situation. Also this might be a good generational asset for your daughter too. Even if you move consider renting it. Seriously KEEP. THE. HOUSE.


2600 per month for a house in Seattle?! I pay more than than for my apartment in West Seattle! You would have to go out to the suburbs or get a ridiculously tiny or crappy apartment in the city to get something for less. Consider renting out a room, that could help a little and people would be chomping at the bit to have an inexpensive room in the city. But definitely do background checks before letting anyone move in, it's absolutely worth it


Can I reject an internship offer after I have accepted it? (10/19/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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You can, though you may burn a bridge for the future. Most will understand. I would, however, contact any recruiter you're working with for other companies and say "hey... I've got an offer from another company that has a deadline. I find your company more desirable, but need to know by this date so I don't lose that offer" - the recruiters will try to expedite the process if they can.


Yep, I’ve done it before when I’ve gotten a better offer for a job. Just explain the situation and try not to burn that bridge too much. Also, before you reject it, make sure you have the actual offer letter from the other place and get everything lined up.


>If a company offers one to me, I would assume that I have a limited time to accept their offer. Don't make that assumption. Tell companies that you've applied for multiple internships, and you want to weigh all your options before making a decision. Some companies might push you to decide quickly, and a smaller number will give you a deadline, and fewer still will actually rescind the offer at that deadline. But most companies will give you time, especially if it's a summer internship (where the start date is months out regardless).


Technically in life you can do whatever you want.


I've turned down my entey level job that way, because the company I was interning with made me a better offer/I already knew the team I would be working with. They were very understanding when I called and explained the situation and even thanked me for calling, because more often that not their new grad hires just don't shoe up on their first day.


US green economy worth $1.3 trillion per year, but new policies needed to maintain growth (10/17/2019) ~ Economics

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I wonder how much it would be without government subsidies?


With or without subsidies?


I don't see anything in that article explaining why they need more subsidies to maintain growth.


Would it be silly of me to buy a new car while still paying off my student loans? (10/20/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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leasing is the most expensive way to get a car, I would stay away from a BRAND new car but with your income you could easily save cash and buy a 10k car outright. that would be awesome


Congratulations on working your way into a pretty good situation. Buying brand new cars is a luxury and not one you need right now. Leasing is mostly only good for corporations, it's a finance trick that changes the way car ownership looks to companies who, for example, provide cars to their execs as perks. The exception right now is certain electric and hybrid cars where manufacturers want to be able to control how long the cars remain in service. Pre-owned is where its at. You avoid that steep first year or two depreciation, you own the asset and can sell it without huge losses if your situation changes, you can still get a car with some manufacturer warranty left on it (aftermarket warranty extensions are not a good way to spend your money), etc. There are some really good tools on the internet now for searching for used cars - they allow you to specify make. model, max age, max mileage, max distance from where you live and they find you the best deals. My favorite is cargurus. I found a good article that argues the point well. I don't know how this sub feels about links... search for 'a hack for beating car depreciation' on edmunds.


#1 Salary is $94,000. Do not count on money you have yet to receive. Any OT/per-diems are just the icing on the cake. Budget like you have a salary of 94,000 only. Anything extra should go into extra payments towards your debts, then retirement, then savings, then index funds. Once you hit the index fund portion and are comfortable then you can expand your budget to enjoy life more. Do not budget like you are on a salary of 100,000 until you officially have the salary of 100,000. In general, when people get raises and have the ability to contribute to a 401k, I also recommend to increase the contribution rate of their 401k. #2 Your loans are manageable and it is great that you are paying them off relatively aggressively. It definitely helps that you are living at home, but are you planning to move out too? What is your current move out plan? Staying for X years, until you meet Mr. Special, or until you pay off your student loans? Are you planning to rent on moving out or do you dream to own a home one day? If the latter, I recommend to start squirreling away additional money in the form of "mortgage" payments from the difference in your current rent. This will give you a somewhat realistic scenario of what to expect. I think your mom made a great move by making you pay some rent. It might be possible to discuss with her the cost of groceries and utilities to get a measure of how much she spends on average a month to give you an idea of how much to expect. You are different from your mom, so you can expect the number to be different, but she may bring up things you have never expected before. #3 Please no more carrying credit card debt, especially if you are putting more money towards student loans. 🙂 You can pay off the statement balance every month and your credit will be built based off that and you won't pay any interest (yay!). #4 Explore your reasoning for wanting a mid-size SUV. You have no family yet or in the foreseeable future(?). You did say it was a want and I completely understand. Is there a reason you might not consider a CRV instead? I will give the caveat that I lack personal experience with CRVs and SUVs as I've never really owned/driven them that much so it is hard for me to understand the desire to want one aside from the occasionally convenience of space. Keep in mind that these cars also consume a lot of gas compared to sedans so expect your gas budget to increase. #5 Your job is new. I would recommend to avoid the instant lifestyle creep. Definitely get a used or CPO car (I still recommend a sedan) so that you can drive safely and with little worry. Save a little towards your car and then trade up to a used/CPO SUV that you want if you still desire one in a year or two. In general, leases are frowned upon here as they typically are not financially smart in most cases so I would not explore a lease personally. Once you are stable, you have a healthy contribution to retirement, little debt, etc. then I would explore New options. I understand the mindset of wanting New so I won't discount it. Used is always better financially, but some people want the health of mind with a New vehicle, just keep it reasonable and it will be fine. $6 It looks like you are set up for success so just keep budgeting and you will get there. 🙂


The difference in price between a new and used Honda SUV is not always enough to justify losing three years of warrantee coverage plus lifespan of the vehicle. Statistically speaking, buying brand new and paying it off and driving it until it really can’t be repaired anymore is the best way to do it. Everyone’s got a hard on for a three year old Honda in perfect condition for 0% interest for three years, but you won’t find one for MUCH cheaper than new. There were some analyses done recently, the trade off margin is razor thin. It didn’t use to be but now, unless you need a used car for some reason, just buying new will get you three more years and the price difference is small.


If you're looking at luxury vehicles like Lexus or Acuras, then pre-owned might make sense. Luxury vehicles depreciate a lot and tend to lose value quickly in the first few years. For mainstream reliable vehicles like Hondas and Toyotas buying a 2-3 year old vehicle can actually be financially worse for you than a new car. The problem is those vehicles maintain their values surprisingly well and you lose out on the factory warranty which usually lasts the first 3 years bumper to bumper. Also, newer vehicles tend to be significantly more fuel efficient than older models. The 2017 Honda CR-V, for example, is 3mpg more efficient than it's 2016 predecessor according to the EPA. Also, keep in mind that a 3 year old car is likely not going to get the EPA estimated mpg due to natural wear and tear, so the difference is going to be more like 5mpg. Additionally, once cars cross the 5-6 years mark there are expenses that start to pile up, like tire replacement, brake pads etc. which you won't have in a new vehicle for a long time. Lastly, newer vehicles are safer. Across the board, cars are getting safer due to active safety monitoring becoming almost standard in addition to the fact that crash test ratings on average are better than 3 years ago. This sub loves to say pre-owned is the only way to go, but it's not black and white. Sometimes, newer is a financially better choice in addition to getting a better newer car.


Letter from Louisiana Department of Revenue stating I owe money from 2017 but I’ve never been a resident of Louisiana (10/20/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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Go talk to JAG, they'll help you figure it out.


As the other commenter said, go to JAG time now. Let your first line know so you don't get hemmed up. Unfortunately it isn't uncommon for states to try taking advantage of service members. CA fought hard and used every trick in the book to trick me into switching my residency. Told them to pound sand and got JAG involved.


This exact thing happened with a buddy of mine, but was the state of GA and he is a CO resident. It took reporting the specific county to the state inspector general of their tax revenue to get them to cancel the debt. He checked with NCIS first to see if it was a scam, which NCIS was only able to verify the names on the paper were state employees. It has the smell of a scam targeting military. Maybe even a state backed scam. Do not pay it, under any circumstance. Go full nuclear on reporting them. The amount doesn't make any sense, there is no legal basis for the tax, and the state should be very used to dealing with tax exempt military. Something else is in play.


I'm stationed in Louisiana and I've heard of this happening before. Talk to legal and see. You shouldn't have to pay it.


You arent by chance married with a spouse that worked in state are you? And you didnt do any sort of side work that you got a 1099 for?


Salesforce founder Marc Benioff says ‘capitalism as we know it is dead’, Corporate earnings are often tepid, yet stocks in those same companies are soaring, thanks in part to stock buybacks that fatten executive compensation but do little to help the business. (10/18/2019) ~ Investing

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Capitalism as we know it is currently crony capitalism. Fed pumps loans and cheap money in the system. Companies have no place to deploy it, so they buy back stock.


Stock buybacks are a tax-efficient distribution to the shareholders. If they fatten executive compensation it is incidental but certainly that's not the point of them.


Stock buy backs are literally just redistributing company profits to share holders. Assuming there done not using debt then by definition of being able to conduct large share buy backs then the company is doing well. Also similarly, the question of share buy backs or investing in the business is silly, one is exiting capital out of the business, the other is keeping it in, there unrelated. However if company’s aren’t investing enough in themselves then that’s an issue that has nothing to do with share buy backs and it most certainly won’t be fixed in any way by attacking or even banning share buy backs.


I hate this billionaire woke philanthropy nonsense.


Benioff lives in San Francisco where millions of people literally hate him and wish him death for the obvious immorality of being a billionaire businessman. He has to play the woke capitalism game for his own survival and to be able to go out in public. Let’s not forget he also runs a fucking sales software company. Literally the most unsexy boring pure money seeking type of product on earth. He has to convince talent in San Francisco to work for him somehow. He will snag some portion of gullible people with his salesman software = “changing the world” dog and pony show.


What’s your favourite investing related book? (10/20/2019) ~ Stock Market

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“The intelligent investor” by Benjamin Graham should be the obvious answer here! Great read with lots of insights




Richest man in babylon


Bogleheads guide to investing and Security Analysis. Intelligent investor is also a fan favourite as mentioned in other comments.


I have a lot but today I’m gonna say Thinking Fast and Slow which covers the psychology of investing and helps one to then be aware of it in themselves, which is super handy for investing.


Inheritance guilt / uncertainty (10/18/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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First, I’m very sorry for your loss. Take some time to grieve. It’s tough to lose a parent, even tougher when they are both gone. Second, please do not feel guilty over your inheritance. Your dad obviously wanted everything to go to you. It was his final act of love for you. Third, as to your current mortgage and paying it off, it’s true that investments are likely to grow more than your mortgage rate; but if it were me, I’d pay off my mortgage and lose that large bill from my life. It just depends on what’s ultimately more important to you. I certainly understand the arguments for investing that money instead; just do whatever feels best in your situation, it’s really a win-win dilemma in my view. Finally, you want to find a fiduciary who you pay to give you specific advice, not someone marketing this or that. That’s really important so you don’t get taken advantage of. There’s nothing wrong with good coming from the tragic loss of your dad. Let his final gift help you become more financially savvy, better prepared for the future, and set up for a better quality of life. I wish you all the best.


I would not trust that financial advisor at all. Telling you to not pay off any debt and to put all of it into an active managed fund where he gets a big percentage is a big red flag. Talk to someone without this obvious conflict of interest. While you are looking for a more trust worthy individual think about your long term goals and your risk tolerance.


I just signed up with Vanguard to manage my accounts for 0.3%. That seems more reasonable


>On the other hand, the advisor who I spoke to while accepting the retirement accounts tried to convince me to put all of the cash into an actively-managed taxable account (with 1% fees) This is going to be a couple of thousand dollars a year. I know you are concerned about messing up, but it just isn't worth it. The advice will be to probably put you in a mix of equity and fixed income according to your age, which would be high in equity since you are young. This is not something you can't do on your own. Edit: You can defer the taxes in the RMDs by increasing your contribution to your own 401K in the same amount of each year's RMD.


Do not pay this dude 1% to manage your money. Frankly, it’s nonsense and you don’t need it.


Jeff Bezos’s Master Plan (10/15/2019) ~ Investing

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Bezos goes to outerspace to stop Bezos from ruining the planet Earth...


Welp, I just spent the last hour reading this, and it has to be one of the most enlightening things I have ever read. Thank you for sharing OP. Time to purchase more $AMZN


Tax avoidance should be bigger


buying your amazon poop bags, from amazon delivery, using amazon 1-day shipping, with amazon delivery drones, through your amazon wallet, with your amazon credits, guaranteed by amazon insurance


Mere mortals, us all.


German government lowers 2020 GDP growth forecast to 1% – source (10/20/2019) ~ Investing

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Sometimes I can't tell if I'm in /investing or /socialism


Optimistic. They have pristine debt situation tho, so if it gets very bad they can do serious fiscal stimulus without damaging govt credit rating. Can't say the same about the US where Trump launches large stimulus (tax cuts) while, supposedly, the economy is doing great.


Uh oh, how long before they invade France?


Even at negative rates their economy cant properly grow. Keep churning out more regulations EU. Each one may not make a big difference but cumulatively its the death of your economy by a thousand cuts.


Wait till Erdogan opena the refugee gates and floods Germany with another 3 million freeloaders. Isnt socialism grand?


My employer posted my current position on an internal Job board. I’m need recommendations on steps to take when I talk to management. (10/20/2019) ~ Personal Finance

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That's terrifying and also it appears the writing is on the wall. Keep your head up, stay positive and professional and start sending your resume out. Good luck.


Be very professional, very subtle and calm, but ask your boss for a discussion about your shared leadership role with your co worker after returning from paternity leave. (Hopefully you took FMLA while you were out, as that prevents an employer from penalizing you for this kind of absence.) Initiating the discussion will serve as a reminder that they appear to be penalizing you for using a federally protected right (FMLA). If that hasn't been on their minds, then no harm/foul. If it has, they'll have to take a mental step back. Also, stop giving your coworker good advice.


Slow down and be very careful about making any unfounded assumptions. How do you know it's **your** actual position? Maybe it was a mistake and they posted the wrong position. Maybe it is the same position, but **your*I position. Do you have any reason, outside of this, to not trust your boss or employer? Have they ever done anything kinda uncouth to anybody that give seen? I.e., is there any legitimate reason to really think they'd do you dirty? If not, just go ask your boss about it. And have an open mind. Just say you saw it and ask what the plan is with it.


Schedule a meeting with your boss to discuss, also update your resume.


While you're out on leave, find another job! You can't continue with this type of uncertainty. Train the people. Get paid for the leave and look for work elsewhere. The writing is on the wall! LEAVE NOW! There's something better for you! Good luck!