Birth Rates Dropped Most in Counties Where Home Values Grew Most

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Anecdotally speaking, I know a hell of alot more pregnant people and people who have had kids in their 20s in Bakersfield (where you can get a house for $150k) than in San Diego (cheapest houses are around $500k).

Of course that could also be explained by cultural/religious differences, lack of economic development and opportunity, lack of education etc

Edit – also I’d like to point out that **this article is from 2018 and thus the data and findings in it are already a couple of years old**. I’d be interested to see if there was any kind of followup or if this is just some one off thing.

VostoDeVulpo

>As a further caveat, the correlation observed here is by no means proof that home value growth causes fertility declines. One alternative explanation could be the possibility that there is clustering into certain counties of people with careers that pay well enough for expensive homes but make it difficult to have children before 30; this could cause both trends observed in the chart above. There are many other confounding factors that could explain this relationship as well, such as the possibility that cultural values or the cost of child care varies across counties with some correlation to home values.

This concept should be near the beginning of the article but instead it’s near the end. Really cool article but I have a feeling home prices are correlated to things that impact this more. For example, it’s likely you have higher home price appreciation in urban areas but people then move to suburban areas to start a family – that creates big issues with the data as the same person is childless in one location but not the other. So not only confounding but interaction effects.

Mr_CIean

Only tangentially-related to the article, but has it been determined how the U.S. managed to recover from the Baby-Bust of the mid-1970s, birthing the Millennial Generation, whereas no one else did?

Most countries in Europe, Canada, Australia, Japan, and so-on in the rich world had a Baby-Bust in the 70s like we did, but their birth rates remained low, and are now trending even lower.

Does it plausibly come down to urbanization?

nick_olas_89

I have always wondered if demographics are the cause or are caused by lower rates of interest. In countries where private debt goes up and up for instance the rate of interest goes down and then demographics follow? .

fremeer

The next economic crisis: Empty retail space

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It will be interesting to see how this impacts suburban municipalities that have propped themselves up with tax revenue generated from shopping malls and big box stores.

cooledtube

Well, a familiar sight. I remember in the 80’s and 90’s where all the mobsters and criminals bought strip malls and such for a vehicle to launder money.

Seemed like every town had two or three strip malls with only one or two business in them that nobody shopped at.

QueefyConQueso

Seems like what we’re in for is CARES expiring and CMBS detonating in the financial markets to both provide another down leg this winter, which I expect will happen the same time as the NASDAQ bubble popping as shockingly it turns out that the whole economy really is linked together after all.

sudospectral

That has been a problem since The Great Recession/2008 combined with internet and mobile technology taking away the need for much of it.

Side note: during 2008 it was lucky we were on the cusp of the beginning of a massive growth in mobile technology that added upwards growth to the market while it collapsed, could have been much worse without that innovation.

drawkbox

i think commercial office will take it on the chin before retail does.

MEI72

The Economy Won’t Be Back To Normal Until 2022 Or Later, According To Our Survey Of Economists

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Rather than being “back” to normal, the economy will enter a new “normal”. Every recession fundamentally changes the economy.

June1994

Large numbers of businesses that took a generation to build have liquidated. The claim that the economy will will return to normal in any timeframe that matters is absurd.

RichardJLyon

It’s not really all that surprising, the V shaped recovery that the GOP has been spouting was a best case scenario provided we fought the virus, masked up, manufactured plenty of testing and PPE which of course we did none of. Airlines, Entertainment, Cruise, Travel etc are all non existent until a vaccine is readily available. Things will hopefully be in to get better but it’s going to be a long dark winter.

bryanjhunter

As it should be. Covid is a pretty big deal, the market needs to change. Injecting it with money will make it worse. Not sure about the stimulus stuff but the QE needs to be controlled. If the country can manage to get through this without a large amount of QE, then the economy/ private sector will be better because of it.

ThisTest2

Or ever. People didn’t get over the Great Depression. It stayed with them for life.

rollercoaster_5

Billionaires now hold over $10 trillion in collective wealth.

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Meanwhile the US Federal budget is 4.79 trillion in 2020. Taxing billionaire wealth would be a drop in the bucket.

TheGhostofJoeGibbs

Millennials have $5.19 trillion in collective wealth. An entire generation has less money than a few thousand billionares. That’s not even the best part. In 1989, when the Boomer median age matched Millennial median age today, Boomers had about $4.5 trillion in collective wealth. Adjusted for inflation that’s about $9.1 trillion today.

yaosio

10 Trillion$, distributed equally among the worlds population, everyone could get 1250$

If the worlds currency(80 trillion$) was distributed equally, everyone could have 10,000$

If we included cryptocurrencies, derivatives and investments(1 quadrillion$), everyone could have 125,000$

Wouldn’t matter though, it would all end up back in the pocket of the 1% sooner or later.

LemonLimeSlices

I hope we can enact wealth limits one day. Not even a family needs more than a hundred million dollars.

It sickens me that billionaires exist.

sniperhare

It’s the market value.
Three isn’t really that much money willing to buy the whole wealth at that price.

The market value is inflated mostly because of the low interest rate.
Do the low interest rate and the resulted asset inflation lead to wealth inequality?
Some people claim that it’s just the market value and doesn’t affect the nominal income. There doesn’t seem to have a definite answer.

AncientRate

The average American has $90,460 in debt

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The fact this also considers mortgages in this calculation totally nullifies everything this article has to say

nastygirl11b

With interest rates on mortgages at under 3 percent, you’d be a fool not to have 90k in debt. It’s essentially free to borrow money.

what_mustache

Finally, I am above average!

Since this sub’s bot doesn’t like my joke and automatically deletes it, I will add some
economic-ish paragraph about how mortgage debt is offset by a real asset which can be liquidated to satisfy the loan. There… are you happy bot?

Il_vino_buono

So convenient that the ad at the end of the story is for a free credit check with Experian.

notfarenough

Good debt vs bad. I hope to one day have 100 million in debt.

Allmyfinance

Massive Layoffs Are Underway Across the U.S., Threatening the Already Frail Recovery

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Just wait til the bank layoffs get into full swing…

wike_iii

“Recovery” seems like the wrong word to use here. Yes, it’s true that Q3 GDP (annualized) will be significantly higher than Q2 GDP, because many lockdown restrictions that were enacted in Q2 were lifted in Q3, but, A. there’s no guarantee further lockdown measures won’t be necessary, and, B. regardless, total GDP in Q3 will be quite a bit lower than the last full quarterly GDP before the pandemic.

whodo-i-thinkiam

And places like the Cheesecake Factory that the article mentions only let go of 175 people are in deep trouble. No one is going there, I drive by one and the parking lot used to be packed all the time. Now its at best 10-20%.

pifhluk

There can’t be a ‘recovery’ with an ongoing pandemic. It’s really that simple.

_NamasteMF_

“It will be hard to get a full recovery before we get a vaccine or big advancement in therapeutics,” Hmmmm, is there a plan B. We seem to be relaying on a vaccine as the Holy Grail for the economic recovery; a medical intervention which is yet to be approved and shown to be effective. More importantly a significant portion of the population will refuse to take it causing inefficiencies in herd immunity. Also, the pandemic has done irreversible damage to the labour market; a successful therapeutic won’t reverse that.

momentalus

U.S. government budget ends fiscal year with a more than $3 trillion deficit

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Funny how the Tea Party is nowhere to be found anymore

-xstatic-

Oh we’re back to caring about budgets and deficits?

Republicans must know their power-grab window is closing so now suddenly the National Debt is going to be all over the news.

Fuck the GOP and their disingenuous scheming. Republicans only serve themselves, everything else is just smoke and mirrors.

MagikSkyDaddy

Just seen a chart of US deficits since the Great Recession and Christ almighty it’s gone up

JohnDickCockerfeller

You would think perhaps this is the time for Amerikans to revisit their system and decide to make changes. The constitution supposedly provides them with the tools to peacefully hold the government accountable. But instead we are watching a slow but steady attrition of Amerika, not just the economy but everything from infrastructure to global standing. As if the people bleeding it dry have another Amerika to move to once they’ve killed this one off.

I’m an Arab so I’m not going to lose much sleep when Amerika finally goes under, and you would have done it to yourselves.

ObodasIV

Good thing we used these last few years of economic growth to build up some mechanisms to use in moments of crisis!

whoops.

Stupid_Triangles

Federal Reserve debates tougher regulation to prevent asset bubbles

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Senior Federal Reserve officials are calling for tougher financial regulation to prevent the US central bank’s low interest-rate policies from giving rise to excessive risk-taking and asset bubbles in the markets.

The push reflects concerns that the Fed’s ultra-loose monetary policy for struggling families and businesses risks becoming a double-edge sword, encouraging behaviour detrimental to economic recovery and creating pressure for additional bailouts.

It also highlights fears at the Fed that the financial system remains vulnerable to new shocks, despite massive central bank intervention this year to stabilise markets and the economy during the pandemic.

Eric Rosengren, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, told the Financial Times that the Fed lacked sufficient tools to “stop firms and households” from taking on “excessive leverage” and called for a “rethink” on “financial stability” issues in the US.

“If you want to follow a monetary policy . . . that applies low interest rates for a long time, you want robust financial supervisory authority in order to be able to restrict the amount of excessive risk-taking occurring at the same time,” he said. “[Otherwise] you’re much more likely to get into a situation where the interest rates can be low for long but be counterproductive.”

Neel Kashkari, the president of the Minneapolis Fed and a US Treasury official during the global financial crisis, told the FT that stricter regulation was needed to stave off repeated market interventions by the central bank — such as the kind made last decade and again this year.

“I don’t know what the best policy solution is, but I know we can’t just keep doing what we’ve been doing,” he said. “As soon as there’s a risk that hits, everybody flees and the Federal Reserve has to step in and bail out that market, and that’s crazy. And we need to take a hard look at that.”

One of the fears among some Fed officials is that the US central bank could be forced to raise interest rates earlier than it would like if financial sector risks are not kept under control and dangerous asset bubbles emerge.

Lael Brainard, a Fed governor, said in a speech last month that expectations of extended low interest rates were “conducive to increasing risk appetite, reach-for-yield behaviour and incentives for leverage”, thereby boosting “imbalances” in the US financial system.

She said it was “vital to use macroprudential” tools — meaning rules designed to curb risks — “as well as standard prudential tools as the first line of defence in order to allow monetary policy to remain focused on achieving maximum employment and 2 per cent average inflation.”

Mr Kashkari, who has called for higher capital requirements at large banks, said the financial system needed to be “fundamentally more resilient, both [in] the banking sector and the non-banking sector” during a period of turbulence like the current one.

“For me, monetary policy is a very poor tool to address financial stability risks,” he said.

Although no big regulatory changes are expected in the near term, the debate over tougher financial regulation could gather pace if Democrat Joe Biden wins the White House in November, making the political environment more favourable towards action.

Michael Barr, the dean of public policy at the University of Michigan business school and a former US Treasury official under Barack Obama, said: “You want to make sure that you’re using all the tools you have on financial stability, so that you don’t put the Fed in the position of cutting off growth.”

So far, the top officials at the Fed, including chairman Jay Powell and Randy Quarles, the vice-chair responsible for financial supervision, have signalled that they were comfortable with the central bank’s regulatory posture leading into the Covid crisis, reckoning that banks were healthy enough to survive the shock of the pandemic and support the US economy.

The Fed has been examining the turbulence that unfolded in the US Treasury and short-term funding markets in March, leading to a hefty rescue from the central bank, to see what fixes might be warranted.

The central bank has also capped dividend payments and banned stock buybacks at the largest banks to the end of the year, though Ms Brainard — a possible Treasury secretary in a Biden administration — argued that this did not go far enough and a full dividend ban was warranted.

Other Fed officials, however, argue that the tougher financial regulation being considered by the central bank could curb the ability of banks to dispense vital credit and reduce market turmoil in times of crisis.

Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, this week told reporters that she did not see much connection between loose monetary policy and financial risks. During the Fed’s rate cuts of 2019, which were triggered by trade tensions, financial stability concerns were raised but never materialised, she said.

“We should always watch for excess risk-taking, we should always watch for excess leverage,” she said. “But we shouldn’t regulate off the fear that could happen, and at the expense of so many millions of Americans who need the employment and the income and the access to the economy.”

.

no_crying

This is a ridiculous statement. If anything what should be regulated more is the fed. They don’t seem to have a handle on how money flows around the system. None of the fed stimulus is getting into the hands of ‘struggling families’

They really need to stop with equating households and businesses. They are completely dissimilar. This is what happens under corporatism, everything is likened to, or becomes in policy as a corporation. The government, non-profits, households, people? All corporations and are thus treated as such.

“I don’t know what the best policy solution is, but I know we can’t just keep doing what we’ve been doing,” he said. “As soon as there’s a risk that hits, everybody flees and the Federal Reserve has to step in and bail out that market, and that’s crazy. And we need to take a hard look at that.”

Dude is at the federal bank…. Here’s an idea, stop enabling those people. Stop just handing out cash when there’s trouble. This is the worst kind of thinking, blaming other people for the consequences of your own actions.

Constant_Curve

That’s only 2 of them saying they want tougher regulations, likely the opinion within the fed for this is also very split, weird that 2 of them chose to speak to media about this themselves.

ZigZagProton

Vollgeld in switzerland seemed to be a good first step.

Jaygernaughty

Unemployment aid is running out for millions: “People are going to become desperate”

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This is so self inflicted – not by those who lost their jobs, but by the “leaders” who can’t see past their noses. If the pandemic was effectively controlled, the economy could safely open. If people had enough long term security to reasonably go on living, the secondary effects would be minimal. Take a damn nation sized loan, let people ride out the storm and avoid long term damage. Pull the benefits early because you can’t stand the smell of poor people and you get decades long recovery, another generation left behind and an overall worse outcome.

lurksAtDogs

I am a firm believer in a pure free market capitalist system, but this pandemic has shown me that the USA never had a free market capitalist system. It’s a socialist country for the rich and elite. It’s absolutely disgusting and anyone who says this is a “free” country needs to reevaluate. We are slowly turning into a country like Russia.

FleshlightIPO

My unemployment claim has been sitting in adjudication review since May. I can’t even talk to someone because I’m told it can take up to 21 days for the review to be done… when I tell them it’s been months. I’m told I need to wait for an adjudicator to call me? WTF. I’m in Wisconsin btw

IAmthatIAn

People already are. 60% of tenants in my building haven’t paid rent since august. I don’t think anyone understands how bad I’m this is going to be.

GothamGuy73

And there’s no end in sight… so it’ll turn much worse before we’re even, back on track.

DamianDev