Economics

I know I won’t have too many agree with me, but I worry about this. Not the supposed student loan bubble, not the housing market, but the subprime auto loans.

>What will this chart look like when the economy turns, and unemployment surges again, and people cannot make their car payments?

Taking someone’s house is a process. When we were buying, we had our eye on a house that was going through foreclosure. 18 months and that house is still in the “pre-forclosure” process. There all kinds of games you can play to stretch it out as long as possible. Miss a car payment? Bob’s Repo will be there tomorrow. And if you didn’t lose your job already, you will. It’s this squeeze from the bottom that concerns me. Student loans and mortgage debt holders are generally middle income. But in many communities everyone needs a car, and the poor are at most risk of holding a subprime car loan.

>Subprime lending is very profitable – until the loans blow up

Good thing we learned our lesson from the last time. Er, never mind.

shortchange81

I record a lot of car purchases for clients

Usually people flip cars fairly often and just tack on the prior debt, its weird seeing someone start a loan underwater

 

I couldn’t do that shit

Magjee

I know this is anecdotal, but I lived in a relatively poor area and I always think about this statistic because the number of $40k+ SUVs driving around is insane, when I’m making six digits and barely able to save, let alone manage $700 car payments…

People are buying SUVs like crazy right now, and even a cheap SUV will run you close to $30k. Idk where they get this money from.

demagogueffxiv

In 2009-10, a lot of people started to park their cars on the quiet street beside my apartment. I only noticed cause one had a faulty rear hatch that made the alarm go off every night. Anyway I started noticing 5 0r 6 cars being parked there overnight and they were gone when I woke up. Found out by talking to the faulty rear hatch guy that he was parking it away from his house so it wouldn’t get REPOed. I assumed the other ones were there for that too.

catfarts99

Captive lending is the worst. The car companies sell you the car *and* the loan. You are better off getting your loan through a bank first, and then shop for the car.

Westcork1916

I’m just curious what happens to an economy when everyone attempts to withdraw all of their money from bank accounts as currency. Obviously there isn’t that much physical currency in circulation to accommodate it. So what happens when they run out?

Thaddeus_Prime

I dont see how pulling HKD deposits will do anything to hurt China at large, aside from potentially causing financial turmoil in Hong Kong itself. Shanghai overtook HK as the port of capital entry for China years ago, so it doesnt seem like a strategy that is based on sound thinking.

masamunexs

Wouldn’t this pinpoint protestors to the Chinese government? I’m sure they could easily get the bank records.

TarHeel2682

Wouldn’t there just be a lot of people getting robbed?

worthMYweightINrice

Not that there is any evidence of this. But I wonder if China is low key spreading this idea to silently win over the protests. You create a banking crisis in Hong Kong (weakening Hong Kong’s economic leverage). Piss off a bunch of foreign investors/institutions tied to HK and their banking system against the protestors. And create a situation where direct Chinese intervention can be deemed necessary.

Brilliant judo move if it is. Though I hope the protestors do get their way rather than the mainland personally.

ChemicalPsychosis

The sad thing about this is that 10 years ago, bonds across the entire duration yielded around 5%. Who wants to bet that we won’t see that again in the next 20 years?

mililani

If you have liquid capital right now, how do you make money?

dalamir

Bonds.

nothingno1

> “Many car plants — they’re coming in from Japan. I told Prime Minister Abe — great guy. I said, ‘Listen, we have a massive deficit with Japan.’ They send thousands and thousands — millions — of cars. We send them wheat. Wheat. (Laughter.) That’s not a good deal. And they don’t even want our wheat. They do it because they want us to at least feel that we’re okay. You know, they do it to make us feel good.”

I guess you learn something every day. I had no idea that Japan bought wheat from us just to make us feel good. I’ve got to hand it to the President on this one, dropping this kind of knowledge. If Japan buys our wheat to make America feel good, America’s wheat farmers must feel *really good*. They’re in capable hands, after all.

CupcakesFromPacker

>Wheat farmers are at a trading disadvantage with Japan because Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade treaty. Competing wheat-producing countries such as Canada and Australia remained in the agreement. As part of that agreement, those nations with see Japanese tariffs on wheat reduced in coming years.

Ummm…. guys… I don’t think it’s going to get any better….

cdwilliams1

3 out of every 4 “Japanese” cars bought in the US are built in North America…Yes let’s target companies that built factories in the US and employ Americans.

bogboom

At some point US farmers WILL realize what has been blazingly obvious to 60% of the country. That Trump (a sociopathic New York City real estate huckster who’s been a millionaire since he was 6 years old and has driven multiple businesses into the ground) does not give a rats ass about them, that he is manifestly unfit to manage a 7-11, let alone the US, and that he is only out for himself. One hopes that realization comes BEFORE he utterly destroys their businesses. Not holding my breath though

Tangpo

Is Trump trying to kill all of the small farmers in the U.S.?

ExoticJudgment

Damn. We could have used that revenue to fund the military more.

letthewordsplay

Combine this with the GOP tax plan and minimal efforts to curb spending. And yet the GOP establishment suddenly pretend to act shocked when the deficit skyrockets.

vermin311

That’s your tax cut, America.

lacompacida

Did they seriously cut the IRS’s budget again? We in too much debt for that shit. I read that for every dollar spent on the IRS we get $3 back. This country is a joke.

AceGoodyear

Corporate welfare or middle class welfare?

johnny_utah16

Robust demand for US debt from mostly all major countries. Hopefully, those harping about China weaponizing their holdings of US debt will end, it obviously wouldn’t work unless appetite for treasurys declines drastically.

genericprofile1

I for one welcome our new, extremely well-behaved overlords.

Icommentor

I find it interesting that Japan, of all nations, is the one to surpass China. Does Japan by a lot of United States debt for some reason? I was under the impression that they were a relatively stagnant economy.

bioemerl

Can someone explainlikeimfive this please? I know other countries own US debt but first off why do they do this and why does China not want to ease their owning of US debt? That seems like that would be a great way for China to get back at the US for the trade war.

slavaMZ

Thats not a good sign… for us or them

IceHistory0

He didn’t take any comments from the company in researching all this? Is that normal? I know GE isn’t exactly squeaky clean all the time, but this is a BIG claim. I want to see some independent review before I react to this.

Not_Paid_Just_Intern

>A website has been set up to disseminate the report, www.GEfraud.com, where Markopolos calls it “a bigger fraud than Enron.” The financial investigator, who was probing GE for an unidentified hedge fund, writes that after more than a year of research he has discovered “an Enronesque business approach that has left GE on the verge of insolvency.”

Anyone know exactly how much GE got in tax breaks last year? How much is the CEO making? 20+ mill a year?

johnly81

I’m unsure how to feel about this given he works for a hedgefund that is likely shorting GE

WuTangelaa

makes me wonder how common this is

gay_manta_ray

Well this headline reads like typical CNBC clickbait trash…

Mt_Snowtokia

Borrow a ton and spend on infrastructure.

lemmecheckit

Well let’s see, the Fed is more than willing to print and borrow whatever it must to subsidize our governments insane spending during “boom” times and this is what you get. But first, let’s get interest to zero which it’s now doing.

nclh77

Over the last 30 years, inflation has average 2.5%.

The government can now borrow a fixed term loan at under 2% for 30 years.

Why are people lining up to watch their purchasing power fall?

tcoop6231

Billionaires have bought all the yachts and planes and real estate and stocks they want. Now they’re just dumping their income into bonds.

Cr3X1eUZ

Can someone explain this to me like I am 5. What does this mean for us. whats going to happen because of it. How to we overcome this?

pluggemr

The yield curve reflects investor confidence. Tweeting about the Fed doing a terrible job and the yield curve being “crazy” will only lower confidence.

chronus_poo

From the article—

“CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE!” the president wrote. “We should easily be reaping big Rewards & Gains, but the Fed is holding us back. We will Win!”

Trump also claimed “we are winning, big time” in his administration’s trade conflict with the world’s second-largest economy. “China is not our problem,” but rather “our problem is with the Fed” and its interest rate policy, he said.

unstabletaco

I don’t understand, the Fed just cut the rates. How are thy working against Trump?

carminedg123

Ironically his persistence in trying to undermine the FED is one of the strongest arguments to keep rates the same. Guess he learned nothing from obstructing justice but why would he when he has received no consequences.

RelaxItWillWorkOut

Just another example of our dear leader’s incompetence on the matter of economics. He is best suited to be a reality TV star since he has a proven to be a failure as a business man.

STL_Jayhawk

When China reduces the value of their currency relative to the dollar, it does so by *buying* dollars. As there is little benefit in keeping mere piles of cash, these purchases are *usually* invested in low risk US assets. This generally means treasuries. So this abrupt fall in the 30-year yield may simply be a consequence of the Chinese investment strategy in connection with their recent currency moves.

This isn’t an ironclad case. I don’t have good data on what China has been buying the last few weeks, or how that disruption is being transmitted through the market. It’s simply worth noting that Chinese policy has introduced big buys on the US debt market *at the same time* the debt market did something strange.

Prosodism

12 years ago…. 2007. Interesting

Mayafoe