Recession fears, recession reality

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One thing is that recessions aren’t as bad as people think they are. The 2008 recession was brutal but that’s not how they all are. I think since everyone remembers the most recent one and the devastation it caused, they think future recessions will be like that. An average recession lasts about a year and a half. An average recession has peak unemployment at 6-8%, while the great recession had peak unemployment at 10%.

However, we have had an extremely long bull market so it follows that a relatively strong recession may be impending. Has our weariness protected us or pulled back the bullishness of the market? Time will tell.

Remind me in 3 years.

Edited: Switched bear->bull


Whether it’s 3 months or 3+ years away I think we can anticipate the selling to be like that of Feb 2018 and Q4 2018. Violent downside with ballooning volatitly. Because of that, I think the next true bear market (as they typically precede recessions from my research) will be fast and violent but consequently short lived. As mentioned, the investor exuberance isn’t really there. I’m about 30 and most people my age roll their eyes when I talk market (their loss really, as they should truly give a damn at our age and put some skin in the game but that’s them).


Every recession is different. The sickness right now is less advanced in the US because of the trump tax cuts and the current tariffs are focused on things that affect businesses and not consumers directly. The consumer feels that the economy is great, but that’s only because the malaise hasn’t translated into prices yet. They are able to substitute goods or spend on other things right now.

If you start to look at the data coming out of South Korea, Europe, Argentina, turkey, and the U.K., things are remarkably less rosy. It isn’t always about something like the mortgage market being broken, or over exuberance in tech shares. Sometimes it’s just that the tide is going out and you’re along for the ride.


Fear is what has kept me investing since 2011 or so, it reassures me that things aren’t too irrational. I try to buy the dip every time a big scare happens. Conversely, when Bitcoin was up to 20K and my friends and taxi drivers started giving me buying tips, I unwound some of my stake in that. Going against the grain has been generally a reliable strategy for me. Agree with OP, prior to the past recessions, when you start hearing about how everything’s gonna be ok, is generally when it isn’t.


As I recall, the news just before the market dropping in 2007-08 was just like it is today. Depending on who you listened to things were great or about to go sour. It took financial failures like that of Lehman and Bear Stearns to get the market fear really going.

I remember Cramer coming on TV saying “get out, now” like the day before one of those crashed. Then it was insane volatility while the govt. figured out what it was going to do. Then things got really ugly.

So back then it took some real catalysts for people to panic.


Warren Buffett comments on GE’s accounting and debt, and explains why Berkshire Hathaway sold all its GE stock

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My bet is within 5 years, GE will be in bankruptcy. GE will go down as one of the biggest cluster fucks of this decade, I’m sure.


Best line from the report

> ..a stiff recession after ten years of domestic economic growth, will see
that the next chapter in GE’s history is Chapter 11


Wow that guy on CNBC loves to cut in, but doesn’t have his thoughts together or know what he is trying to say. If your going to cut off Buffet you should have something at least as intelligent as what he is saying prepared.


Who would have thought a massive industrial conglomerates would be taken down by a bunch of Geriatrics.


Wow… I remember watching this interview. I had no interest in GE at the time and still do not. Forgot about this segment and now I am curious is this just a GE doomsday issue being blown out of proportions or is this legit. The Markopolos report to me looked reasonable but in the end assumptions about the necessary reserves were made. IMO conservative assumptions but whats the reality of it all?


I found the most insane shit while thrifting today

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I think this is a perfect /r/wallstreetbets material…



open up a virtual trading account and use this to trade with and see how it does. lol

that shit would be hilarious. Probably make bank because the world is insane.


So wtf I’m supposed to buy?


Pretty sure I saw something about this in like Wall Street warriors lol some dude using astrology to try to predict the stock market.


I found a how to select stocks book at a library book sale once. From the cover it sounded very technical. It actually involved some ancient Chinese candle wax drippings or something.


U.S. Treasury Department Considers Issuing 100-Year Bonds

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Gotta pay for Greenland somehow.



Let’s invert them too!


Previous attempts failed due to lack of demand, but I work for an insurer and we love long duration derivatives and bonds. Would be interesting to look at.


Do wonder what kind of rate you’d get with a 100 year bond.


It would only be viable if you bought the bond for your future grandchildren because legally you’d need to be 18 to purchase, and nobody is living to 118 to cash that in. All for that sweet 5% yield…


I turn 18 in a month and I can finally start investing, I have questions but any advice is appreciated

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Invest your money into a total market index, setup an automatic process to repeat this investment with every paycheck, and forget about it. (…And when you have access to a 401k, max it out as soon as you can.)

You will thank me in 20 years.


Buy ETFs such as VTS, VOO, QQQ etc and the like until you become familiar with the stock market. Why? It’s a safe way to dip your toes in with decent returns. If you buy individual company stocks and buy a dud, you can end up with $0, or lose a lot of it.


I wish i can go back in time… to get more compound interest <——




Buy stocks that you like so you can comfortably hold them through the tough times.

Buy stocks that interest you so it doesn’t feel like a job keeping up to date.

Remember no one is perfect and you will never stop making mistakes, it’s how you learn and grow from these mistakes that is important.

Start slow.




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We have been trying to talk ourselves into a recession for 3 years


Watch out, though, if you are too self aware about there not being a recession, there WILL be an epic recession.


Don’t ever take investing advice posts like this seriously. Often times it just ends up being shit advice. If you are actively trading then it is your responsibility to do your own due diligence and make the decisions that are right for you. Don’t let other people tell what you what to do.


Lol…thanks for the thread…wanker


I disagree. The earliest it could happen is 2019 in Q3 and Q4.


Treasury is about to flood the market with debt to fund U.S.’s $1 trillion deficit — and that is a concern

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Why are Treasury yeilds falling?

Hint because everyone wants to buy them


And based on the 10 and 30 year treasury yields, the market is saying “Hell yeah, go for it, and while you’re at it, make it $2 trillion!”


So all this week we were freaking out about falling yields from rising bond prices. Yet now we are supposed to be concerned about more supply of bonds entering the market? Sorry but I am completely losing faith in the economic news cycle. I just keep seeing conflicting reasons to be afraid.


Perfect time for China to offload some of their us treasuries too.


can someone explain why anyone would ever purchase a negative yield?


12.6B dollars in made-up cash holdings, Chinese traditional medicine company Kangmei Pharma gets slap on the wrist.

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The harsh reality is you have to assume every Chinese company is cooking the books until proven otherwise.


Not even scratching the surface, there’s a movie called China Hustle that shows how unbelievably sketchy Chinese IPOs are.


This is to be expected. Even the auditing firms are corrupt over there. Don’t touch it with a 10 foot pole.

Throwawayacct449393 for best China DD


GE CEO Larry Culp bought nearly $2 million worth of the company’s stock after fraud accusation

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Time to get out the popcorn

> “GE will always take any allegation of financial misconduct seriously. But this is market manipulation – pure and simple,” he said in a statement. “Mr. Markopolos’s report contains false statements of fact and these claims could have been corrected if he had checked them with GE before publishing the report.”


We need Ja Rule to weigh in on this


Let me know when the janitors start buying.


PR move.


To be fair if you were CEO you would be desperate to show confidence in the company regardless, tho perhaps especially, if the allegations are true.