Market expects Trump to win reelection: Jeffrey Gundlach

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Market knows better than media. Always

BernardoDeGalvez

Help us all of he does. Not from a market standpoint but from a society stand point.

slapsahoe

Am I the only one looking forward to the end of the rip off health sector?

And big oil?

And big war?

Fewwordsbetter

A lot of people are probably going to start getting really nervous in about 3 1/2 years

ferrariaccount

Coming from the guy who said he didn’t know if trump was even going to run for reelection earlier this year. The guy’s discredited just for thinking that was even a possibility.

ismashugood

Amazon will be the most important company of the 2020s

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As a regular trader when I read “above the line” media reports like this, it confirms to me that someone wants to off load a large block of aforementioned shares at a “respectable” price.

macdaddy0800

GE was the most dominant company of the 90s and early 00s. Their management was considered the best and they were briefly the most valuable company in the world. This too shall pass…

contrarianaccountant

I mean, if things stay the same, sure

But that’s the thing about long stretches of time. Things change. Sometimes dramatically

The_Contrarian01

I don’t think it’s unbelievable that if Amazon continues to attract the ire of the government, we might one day be talking about several companies instead of one Amazon.

trampolinesex

I doubt that. I think Apple and Amazons decade of dominance was the 2010’s.

Pat6802

Here are Bank of America’s top 10 investing themes to watch over the next decade

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Honestly these issues are nothing new and we are dealing with them currently. For example everyone is talking about recession now and the possibility of recession in 2020 or beyond. Robotics and self driving cars are already on the road, drones are delivering packages for Amazon etc. climate change is here for real so nothing new tbh. So if you know how to play these issues in the context of stock markets then you shouldn’t have any issues

dr_amir7

Is there an unbiased definition for moral capitalism, it sound quite subjective.

m3anem3ane

Can someone ELI5 what “quantitative failure” is? After some skimming, it sounds like it’s basically the central banks being forced into a position where they can’t do their jobs any more?

space_spider

Interesting from a investing point of view. Depressing as fuck from a humanitarian view.

90Carat

The death of QE? Bold assumption.

tinygreenbag

Robinhood joins a wave of fractional stock-trading offers to bring investing to the masses

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Buying .1 spy put expiring yesterday

Chad_Pr0dy

ahh yes, that delicious 0.0003 BRK.A share for those investors with $102 in their account.

Zigxy

“WSB has entered the chat”

Abra2889

I use M1 for the fractional shares, it just makes life simpler. Now the idea of being able to day trade fractions seems appealing.

BruceNotLee

Neat now can we DRIP?

chuy1530

A Detailed Breakdown of Warren Buffet’s Portfolio for 2020

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I’ve been pretty disappointed with BRK.B this year.

Hope 2020 is a better year for the Oracle.

expatbrussel

Did not know his Apple holding got so fat lol

lixx0040

Nice post!

Picograms

I tried to edit in his Cash, GM, and other positions but it wasn’t letting me. Here they are as a comment instead.

**Cash – ($124,442,000,000)** ***NOT INCLUDED IN STOCK PORTFOLIO PERCENTAGES***

>At the moment, Warren Buffett’s largest holding is in cash, about $128 billion. This is a huge increase from the $23 billion in cash Berkshire was holding on to in 2009. Now because of some insurance companies that Berkshire owns, they are required to keep a certain amount of cash on hand, but the amount that Berkshire has been putting away has led a lot of people to speculate that he is expecting a crash or that he is no longer the same great investor he always was.

**General Motors – 1.26% ($2,708,669,000)**

>Warren Buffett first took a stake in **General Motors**, the world’s fourth-largest auto manufacturer by production, in early 2012. He most recently upped Berkshire Hathaway’s holdings in the fourth quarter of 2018, when he increased his position by 37%. However, like Kraft Heinz, this is also one of the more disappointing investments for Warren and Berkshire Hathaway. Including dividends, General Motors has returned a disappointing 81% since March 2012 – roughly half the market’s total return in that time.

**Others – 12.82% ($27,522,702,000)**

>About 12.82% of Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio is invested in small positions in a wide variety of companies. A few honorable mentions are Visa, Mastercard, Sirius XM, Costco, and Amazon.

BotWillber

They always underperform when the market is charging upwards. Once the downturn comes, they absolutely steal bargains and provide great value and all of a sudden become the best place to invest once again.

mjbod109

Where will the S&P 500 go in 2020? Here are the most bullish and bearish strategists

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It will probably maybe go up. Could possibly also go down. There’s also could be a chance it goes sideways.

PalsgrafBlows

I’m expecting it will go in an ellipse, until it learns how to trace a perfect circle.

Nexus9291

Nobody knows this, completely speculation. The best prognosticators I’ve seen can only measure such predictions eight weeks max IF there are no major catalysts.

rossspaul

Beargang is on the scene. Dalio says that he had concerns and the volatility patterns of common stocks are widening. Once good companies e.g. Amazon are showing lower returns and even in the case of Amazon quarterly losses. Trump has pushed the S&P too far and we are in for a big crash. Open to other opinions though.

CursedFabula7

Not sure why everyone is joking around.

The S&P500 will go up 7% in 2020

EastOfHope

Is it possible that U.S will have a great depression again to remove all their debts?

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They will likely inflate their way out of it. Aka, increase inflation so that the dollar decreases in value and therefore it’s easier to pay off debts denominated in pre-inflation dollars.

Global-Quiet

To add to what others have said….in terms of “inflating your way out of it” the best way to try and conceptualize this would be that you the government need to get money to finance your programs. You go look for someone to buy your bond. The Federal Reserve says they’ll buy it and they give you the money. But the federal reserve essentially created the “money” out of thin air. So the money supply increased and so did the level of debt. This all sounds very weird, but the important piece is that there is now more money in the system which, according to traditional economic theory, increases the inflation rate.

An increase in the inflation rate would mean that a dollar tomorrow is worth less than a dollar today because it purchases fewer golds and services.

So, to answer your question….maybe. If this is what happens we could see a depression or a greater disparity in wealth than we have today. But the scenario above could also result in mediocre economic output for an extended period of time. Not a depression but more like everything is “fine.” Where things just keep moving but there aren’t drastic changes to the economy and productivity improves but very slowly. OR we don’t get to this point at all and the planet melts, or Hong Kong protests turn into a full scale war, or all student loans default at the same time, or there is some natural disaster, or a major economy collapses.

The reality is that we can think in abstract terms of what might happen in the scenario you talk about, but that assumes a world that more or less doesn’t change for an extended period of time for that to happen.

recoveringslowlyMN

>they do not intend to *ever* pay it back ~~in at least a century (a very long time)~~ .

v3ritas1989

or another 9/11

bamfalamfa

They don’t have to pay it all back, they just have to stay current (although it can be argued that it will be increasingly difficult to do so eventually). They also have to maintain a defecit for the most part, as consistently having a trade surplus would slowly drain the world of US dollars and it would no longer be a viable reserve currency. So the need to maintain a defecit most of the time naturally means debt inevitably has to increase (e.g. if you keep spending more than you earn year after year after year, you can’t reasonably expect to pay off your debt).

mdcd4u2c

Here’s the hard-money call for why the boom in the economy and stock market will continue

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So basically their analysis is that interest rates have further to fall therefore the stock market will continue to go higher?

Gosh remember back in the day when people would talk about fundamentals, now it’s all interest rates and pumping FIAT money into the market

Remember, the gains sustained in the S&P in 2019 have come from multiple expansion only, not earnings or dividends, but simply multiple expansion aka stocks getting more expensive without growth

nothrowaway4me

Keep feeding the junkie all the heroin, itll be fine, he hasnt overdosed yet…

frasair417

Mainstream Media keeps calling for a recession but the capital flows into the US and Canada say exactly the opposite.

Money is seeking shelter from Europe – that’s where the actual problem is brewing. Buy US and Canadian stocks and sleep well for the next decade as the world around us collapses.

wobermey1987

So just cut interest rates to hide the true nature of the economy?

particleman3

So in other words the market is crashing?

momanx